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Now that Bet Victor are offering 6 places & non runner, no bet I think Rule The World has strong possibilties for a place.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.O’Faolains Boy looks poorly handicapped. Rated within 8 or 9 pounds of Conti and Many Clouds, consistently placed in and winners of Grade 1s – seriously ?
I remember Phil Smith putting Crozan in the National at about 150 and he’d only ever won a Cheltenham novice event.
There are too many horses rated over 140 in this country and thus plenty which are poorly handicapped. Wonderful Charm has won one race, at Newton Abbott, in two years and is rated 158.I think Phil Smith too often rates a horse on what it might achieve rather than what it has. Too obsessed that trainers might be getting one over him. Quite a few horses that deserve to be in the National field that won’t get a run.
O’Faolains Boy looks poorly handicapped. Rated within 8 or 9 pounds of Conti and Many Clouds, consistently placed in and winners of Grade 1s – seriously ?
I remember Phil Smith putting Crozan in the National at about 150 and he’d only ever won a Cheltenham novice event.
There are too many horses rated over 140 in this country and thus plenty which are poorly handicapped. Wonderful Charm has won one race, at Newton Abbott, in two years and is rated 158.I agree with you Mark that there have been some dubious decisions with regard to
handicap marks in the National, but I think you’re maybe being a bit harsh on
O’Faolains Boy.Over the past couple of years he has had some decent results in very decent races, I
think his handicap mark is about where it should be, and I’m saying that when it would
suit me if he were handicapped lower.Feb 2014 he beat Many Clouds in The Reynoldstown, getting 4lbs from MC. He then went on
to win the RSA at the Festival, beating Smad Place at level weights. He was rated 144
going into that race.He went on to run in the Mildmay at Aintree the following month, rated 156, but although
he was 3/1 fav, he was disappointing. There clearly was a problem and he was off for
19 months before returning at Ascot in Dec 15, rated 150, where not surprisingly he found
trying to go with Vautour and Ptit Zig too much after such a layoff and was pulled up.Ran a month later, off 150, and gave Sausalito Sunrise (rated 150) a 15 length beating
at Newbury. He ran in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham Jan this year, back on 156, but
whether the win over SS took a bit to recover from, or perhaps “the bounce factor”, I
don’t know, but he tired late on.The hurdle race at Chepstow, was just to get a run into him before the Gold Cup.
I was there to watch him run in the Gold Cup, (rated 156) and for just short of 3 miles
he looked magnificent jumping with Smad Place, at a pretty strong pace. Not surprisingly
both he and Smad Place ran out of gas after the 3rd last, but I reckon it was good run.Hopefully that run suggests he’s in fine fettle, his jumping was impressive, and ridden
with a bit more restraint he has a good chance in The National.I think getting 9lbs from Many Clouds isn’t far off the mark, but time will tell.
Good luck with Ballycasey, he ran a decent race in The Plate at the Festival and was
unlucky last year when running well but brought down at Canal Turn.G, just for info.
Read elsewhere that Ofaolains Boy was deliberately slowed down in The Gold Cup, when it looked like he wouldn’t place. Also that the owners The Romford Pele is their preferred National Horse, though not ruled out out for Ofaolains Boy.
I still like pair of them, after putting them up earlier, both very interesting, but trying hard not to have another bet…….it’s not proving easy lol
You’re spot on Bobby, as I had an e/w on him, I kept an eye and it was pretty obvious
that Noel Fehily was very easy on him once the chance had gone. He could have finished
closer if he wanted, but no point in flogging the horse for to try for 6th rather than
7th.I hope they let him take his chance, his jumping was really impressive and I think he
would enjoy it round Aintree. I’m running out of room in my “failed to trap” bag, I hope
I don’t have to fit another one in
I have always fancied Holywell to run a big race if the ground doesn’t come up to soft.
Just Looking at the form and runners now and I think the best current value long shot is SIR DES CHAMP at 40-1.
He used to be a class horse previously 2nd in a gold cup and is multiple grand 1 winner. Hes also a sound jumper and is as tough as nails. I think if he comes back to his best he is very well treated running off 10-13.
He is still only 10 and acts on any ground. His comeback run back was encouraging and Mullins has protected his handicap mark ever since with this race in mind.
I have lumped with BV who pays 6 places at are non runner no bet as he is entered in the Topham.
I know he’s coming back from injury but I’m willing to take a risk at 40-1 as 10-1 represents good value for placing in the first 6.
I can see him going off around 25/1 maybe less if copper or Russell take the ride which is a positive
Don’t you think Rebecca Curtis’s poor form comes into consideration ?
You have a point Raymo, she’s not exactly been hitting the heights, but I think
O’FAOLAINS BOY looked in very good form at the Festival. He’s never going to win
a Gold Cup, but then not many that take on the National would.After bobby mentioning that he heard The Romford Pele was the favoured horse of
the owners two for the National, I think it’s possible he could head for the Bet365
(old Whitbread) at Sandown later in the month.Not much I can do now but to hope they run both, I can’t see The Romford Pele not
getting in, he only needs 7 to pull out and I think that’s likely.You pays your money etc etc
Carlingford Lough looks like he’s going, very popular today. Don’t think he’ll be 25’s for much longer.
SODS LAW Rebecca Curtis had a treble today !!!
Don’t worry, Raymo. I’ve noticed that the most profitable system in history is to follow jockeys/trainers who’ve just had doubts posted about them on forums :)
O’Faolains Boy looks poorly handicapped. Rated within 8 or 9 pounds of Conti and Many Clouds, consistently placed in and winners of Grade 1s – seriously ?
I remember Phil Smith putting Crozan in the National at about 150 and he’d only ever won a Cheltenham novice event.
There are too many horses rated over 140 in this country and thus plenty which are poorly handicapped. Wonderful Charm has won one race, at Newton Abbott, in two years and is rated 158.I agree with you Mark that there have been some dubious decisions with regard to
handicap marks in the National, but I think you’re maybe being a bit harsh on
O’Faolains Boy.Over the past couple of years he has had some decent results in very decent races, I
think his handicap mark is about where it should be, and I’m saying that when it would
suit me if he were handicapped lower.Feb 2014 he beat Many Clouds in The Reynoldstown, getting 4lbs from MC. He then went on
to win the RSA at the Festival, beating Smad Place at level weights. He was rated 144
going into that race.He went on to run in the Mildmay at Aintree the following month, rated 156, but although
he was 3/1 fav, he was disappointing. There clearly was a problem and he was off for
19 months before returning at Ascot in Dec 15, rated 150, where not surprisingly he found
trying to go with Vautour and Ptit Zig too much after such a layoff and was pulled up.Ran a month later, off 150, and gave Sausalito Sunrise (rated 150) a 15 length beating
at Newbury. He ran in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham Jan this year, back on 156, but
whether the win over SS took a bit to recover from, or perhaps “the bounce factor”, I
don’t know, but he tired late on.The hurdle race at Chepstow, was just to get a run into him before the Gold Cup.
I was there to watch him run in the Gold Cup, (rated 156) and for just short of 3 miles
he looked magnificent jumping with Smad Place, at a pretty strong pace. Not surprisingly
both he and Smad Place ran out of gas after the 3rd last, but I reckon it was good run.Hopefully that run suggests he’s in fine fettle, his jumping was impressive, and ridden
with a bit more restraint he has a good chance in The National.I think getting 9lbs from Many Clouds isn’t far off the mark, but time will tell.
Good luck with Ballycasey, he ran a decent race in The Plate at the Festival and was
unlucky last year when running well but brought down at Canal Turn.I’ve put a line through that Newbury run because one win in a muddling four runner race doesn’t prove his current rating, particularly alongside a string of poor runs. One small field win in two years….i think he’s about 6 pounds too high
The handicapper gives far too much credence to one off results. Horses have been raised 20 pounds and more for freak wins.
Aachen and Soll were raised five or six pounds for finishing first and second in a vets race. They gave weight to the 134 rated 12 year old Reaping The Rewards, beat it six lengths and were hiked up for it. A big pot but not a particularly top class field.
This came about a year after Soll and Relax were raised six or seven pounds for a similar result in another vets race.Twice as many horses rated over 140 than a decade ago and Phil Smith is largely responsible.
The handicapper gives far too much credence to one off results. Horses have been raised 20 pounds and more for freak wins.
Aachen and Soll were raised five or six pounds for finishing first and second in a vets race. They gave weight to the 134 rated 12 year old Reaping The Rewards, beat it six lengths and were hiked up for it. A big pot but not a particularly top class field.
This came about a year after Soll and Relax were raised six or seven pounds for a similar result in another vets race.Twice as many horses rated over 140 than a decade ago and Phil Smith is largely responsible.
I agree with you Mark, that Soll and Aachen are poorly handicapped, but there are more good quality horses around than there used to be.
Even private handicappers are not going to agree with every horse. Us TRFers are not going to agree with every horse either.
As far as O’Faolains Boy is concerned, this is what I wrote before seeing this debate:
15/-P1P87 O’Faolains Boy 9: 11-01 Rebecca Curtis 156 7/10
Most difficult horse to fathom. Won 2014 RSA (3m½f good) by a neck from Smad Place. Now 6 lbs worse off for 6¼ lengths he beat 3rd Morning Assembly. On the same 156 mark now as he was given after that race. Missed a whole season with a tendon injury and an inauspicious return – pulled up. Victory only in a 2 finisher Graduation Chase at Newbury… and 15 lengths runner-up Sausalito Sunrise is a bit hit and miss. But had to be impressed by O’Faolains Boy’s enthusiastic, bold, accurate jumping from the front and the way he stayed on strongly (2m7½f soft). Possibly had another problem afterwards because despite the win he sported a first time tongue tie on next start in Cotswold Chase (3m1f heavy). Couldn’t lead and jumping fell apart, pulled up 3 out. Poor run over hurdles and then the Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f good). Now cheek pieces used for the first time, 52 lengths 7th of 8 finishers doesn’t do justice. Led or disputed it against the best chasers around and back to the type of jumping I saw at Newbury. Still upsides leaders 3 out; considering company kept not surprisingly weakened. Hopefully wasn’t too hard a race for a relatively quick turn-around. Held up in RSA, possibly needs prominent tactics nowadays. Effective on soft or good and 3m2f the furthest raced. Could be suited by further; stable’s Grand National 3rd Teaforthree was by the same sire, Oscar. And half-brothers O’Faolains Boy and Saddlers Storm (who was best at 4m+) share the same paternal grand-sire – are closely related.Value Is EverythingO’Faolains Boy looks poorly handicapped. Rated within 8 or 9 pounds of Conti and Many Clouds, consistently placed in and winners of Grade 1s – seriously ?
I remember Phil Smith putting Crozan in the National at about 150 and he’d only ever won a Cheltenham novice event.
There are too many horses rated over 140 in this country and thus plenty which are poorly handicapped. Wonderful Charm has won one race, at Newton Abbott, in two years and is rated 158.I agree with you Mark that there have been some dubious decisions with regard to
handicap marks in the National, but I think you’re maybe being a bit harsh on
O’Faolains Boy.Over the past couple of years he has had some decent results in very decent races, I
think his handicap mark is about where it should be, and I’m saying that when it would
suit me if he were handicapped lower.Feb 2014 he beat Many Clouds in The Reynoldstown, getting 4lbs from MC. He then went on
to win the RSA at the Festival, beating Smad Place at level weights. He was rated 144
going into that race.He went on to run in the Mildmay at Aintree the following month, rated 156, but although
he was 3/1 fav, he was disappointing. There clearly was a problem and he was off for
19 months before returning at Ascot in Dec 15, rated 150, where not surprisingly he found
trying to go with Vautour and Ptit Zig too much after such a layoff and was pulled up.Ran a month later, off 150, and gave Sausalito Sunrise (rated 150) a 15 length beating
at Newbury. He ran in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham Jan this year, back on 156, but
whether the win over SS took a bit to recover from, or perhaps “the bounce factor”, I
don’t know, but he tired late on.The hurdle race at Chepstow, was just to get a run into him before the Gold Cup.
I was there to watch him run in the Gold Cup, (rated 156) and for just short of 3 miles
he looked magnificent jumping with Smad Place, at a pretty strong pace. Not surprisingly
both he and Smad Place ran out of gas after the 3rd last, but I reckon it was good run.Hopefully that run suggests he’s in fine fettle, his jumping was impressive, and ridden
with a bit more restraint he has a good chance in The National.I think getting 9lbs from Many Clouds isn’t far off the mark, but time will tell.
Good luck with Ballycasey, he ran a decent race in The Plate at the Festival and was
unlucky last year when running well but brought down at Canal Turn.I’ve put a line through that Newbury run because one win in a muddling four runner race doesn’t prove his current rating, particularly alongside a string of poor runs. One small field win in two years….i think he’s about 6 pounds too high
The handicapper gives far too much credence to one off results. Horses have been raised 20 pounds and more for freak wins.
Aachen and Soll were raised five or six pounds for finishing first and second in a vets race. They gave weight to the 134 rated 12 year old Reaping The Rewards, beat it six lengths and were hiked up for it. A big pot but not a particularly top class field.
This came about a year after Soll and Relax were raised six or seven pounds for a similar result in another vets race.Twice as many horses rated over 140 than a decade ago and Phil Smith is largely responsible.
Again I’d have to say that you’re being a bit harsh Mark. One small field win in two years? He won the
Renoldstown beating Many Clouds and the RSA beating Smad Place in 2014….unless you want to argue about
a month either way. Do you not think that during the 2 year period we are talking about, the fact that he
was off the course for 19 months could be a factor in the number of wins he had?The muddling four runner race you mention at Newbury, wasn’t the greatest race, I’ve no problem admitting
that, but he did win off a mark of 150, beating Sausalito Sunrise by 15 lengths, also rated 150, who then
franked the form by going on to win a listed race at Ascot next time out, beating Vieux Lion Rouge
(rated 146) by 12 lengths.The hurdle race aside, where that was just to get a run, he has had 2 poor races after his absence. The first
pulled up, running against Vautour after a long absence, and the race after he won against SS, which, arguably,
could have been the bounce factor, but if not it was just a bad race, they all have them.Three wins, two of which were very decent races, in a period of just over 2 years, taking into account he was
off for 19 months in that period, isn’t too bad in my book.
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