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The handicapper gives far too much credence to one off results. Horses have been raised 20 pounds and more for freak wins.
Aachen and Soll were raised five or six pounds for finishing first and second in a vets race. They gave weight to the 134 rated 12 year old Reaping The Rewards, beat it six lengths and were hiked up for it. A big pot but not a particularly top class field.
This came about a year after Soll and Relax were raised six or seven pounds for a similar result in another vets race.Twice as many horses rated over 140 than a decade ago and Phil Smith is largely responsible.
I agree with you Mark, that Soll and Aachen are poorly handicapped, but there are more good quality horses around than there used to be.
Even private handicappers are not going to agree with every horse. Us TRFers are not going to agree with every horse either.
As far as O’Faolains Boy is concerned, this is what I wrote before seeing this debate:
15/-P1P87 O’Faolains Boy 9: 11-01 Rebecca Curtis 156 7/10
Most difficult horse to fathom. Won 2014 RSA (3m½f good) by a neck from Smad Place. Now 6 lbs worse off for 6¼ lengths he beat 3rd Morning Assembly. On the same 156 mark now as he was given after that race. Missed a whole season with a tendon injury and an inauspicious return – pulled up. Victory only in a 2 finisher Graduation Chase at Newbury… and 15 lengths runner-up Sausalito Sunrise is a bit hit and miss. But had to be impressed by O’Faolains Boy’s enthusiastic, bold, accurate jumping from the front and the way he stayed on strongly (2m7½f soft). Possibly had another problem afterwards because despite the win he sported a first time tongue tie on next start in Cotswold Chase (3m1f heavy). Couldn’t lead and jumping fell apart, pulled up 3 out. Poor run over hurdles and then the Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f good). Now cheek pieces used for the first time, 52 lengths 7th of 8 finishers doesn’t do justice. Led or disputed it against the best chasers around and back to the type of jumping I saw at Newbury. Still upsides leaders 3 out; considering company kept not surprisingly weakened. Hopefully wasn’t too hard a race for a relatively quick turn-around. Held up in RSA, possibly needs prominent tactics nowadays. Effective on soft or good and 3m2f the furthest raced. Could be suited by further; stable’s Grand National 3rd Teaforthree was by the same sire, Oscar. And half-brothers O’Faolains Boy and Saddlers Storm (who was best at 4m+) share the same paternal grand-sire – are closely related.I was typing up my reply to Mark when you posted this Ginger, I’m in complete agreement with your
assessment of O’Faolains Boy. He clearly has had his problems, and has done well to get back, he strikes me
as a horse who will pick up a very decent prize. If they give him the chance I think he could do
really well in the National. If he is not in the final declarations, I reckon he will head to the
Bet365 Cup at Sandown later in the month. He would have a good shout in that too.Heavy rain forecast today for Aintree, continuous from 3:00am to 2:00pm.
And judging by BBC weather site a small amount practically every day up until race time.
Although most days are a very small amounts.
A shower at 7:00am and another 22:00pm Sunday.
Light Showers from 1:00pm Monday until 4:00am Tuesday morning. Possible shower 1:00pm Tuesday too.
Light Showers from 10:00am Wednesday in to the night.
Light Showers both day and night Thursday.
Light Showers by day Friday.
Light Shower day of race.http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2657621
Expect it’ll all be changed to dry, dry dry.
Value Is EverythingCarlingford Lough out.
Value Is EverythingCould be more to come as well.
Ballycasey, Sir Des Champs, Turban, and Third Intention still engaged in Topham.
Present View taken out of Topham after his hurdles defeat the other day, so maybe doubts about him.
Only one of Katkeau or Vioux Lion Rouge going.
Gilgamboa has other possible targets.
Living Next Door & Roi Du Mee definitely not going.
Have you heard anything about Katenko VTC? Doubt they’ll risk him unless coming up soft/heavy. Hope they don’t on any going.
Could be 999/1 if running in goodish conditions.Value Is EverythingRoi Du Mee definitely not going.
They’re running out of chances with this one! Any reason why he doesn’t go?
Sorry Peter, read it this morning, and no explanation given. I remember badly wanting him to go last year.
Thought he was worth a go at it at least.
I read the updates in a paper at work this morning GT, but Katenko was definitely jocked up, can’t remember who off the top of my head, sorry.
Have to agree, wouldn’t want to see him anywhere near good ground, but I don’t want to see him go anyway, he’s completely “gone”
Could be more to come as well.
Ballycasey, Sir Des Champs, Turban, and Third Intention still engaged in Topham.
Present View taken out of Topham after his hurdles defeat the other day, so maybe doubts about him.
Only one of Katkeau or Vioux Lion Rouge going.
Gilgamboa has other possible targets.
Living Next Door & Roi Du Mee definitely not going.
Could be more to come as well.
Ballycasey, Sir Des Champs, Turban, and Third Intention still engaged in Topham.
Present View taken out of Topham after his hurdles defeat the other day, so maybe doubts about him.
Only one of Katkeau or Vioux Lion Rouge going.
Gilgamboa has other possible targets.
Living Next Door & Roi Du Mee definitely not going.
Looking encouraging for Cause Of Causes. I can see about 15 which are definitely not running or less likely than two weeks ago.
H
Could be more to come as well.
Ballycasey, Sir Des Champs, Turban, and Third Intention still engaged in Topham.
Present View taken out of Topham after his hurdles defeat the other day, so maybe doubts about him.
Only one of Katkeau or Vioux Lion Rouge going.
Gilgamboa has other possible targets.
Living Next Door & Roi Du Mee definitely not going.
Looking encouraging for Cause Of Causes. I can see about 15 which are definitely not running or less likely than two weeks ago.
He’s one I had definitely put to one side Mark, I thought his chances of getting in were really
small, but there’s a possibility he will so I’ll grab the last remaining 20s with Willie Hill.It’s a pity WH hasn’t gone NRNB yet, but I doubt he will be withdrawn so even if he is balloted
out then bets would be returned.Best of luck Mark, and I know Bobby has been on his case since the year dot
Argh. Carlingford lough out and cause of causes struggling to get in. My 2 main fancies
Hoping out of the two vioux lion rouge runs as he’s on my shortlist ,katenko keeps jumping out at me so hoping for a bit of give
It’s rained quite a lot over the weekend here and has chucked it down for the last few hours.
The Romford Pele is currently number 40 and will be the last horse in unless others drop out before Saturday.
Pineau De Re, Alvarado, Mountainous and Bishops Road all need horses to come out to get into the race now.
All four of my selections are still in, so that’s a relief.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My current stable of BUYWISE 50/1, HOLYWELL 16/1 and
O’FAOLAINS BOY 50/1, are all still standing. With the likelihood of quite
a few withdrawals, more than I had thought there would be, I’ve got round to having a
good look at those that could squeeze in.CAUSE OF CAUSES I didn’t think had a snowballs chance of getting in, but it
looks like he might get there, and at 20/1 with William Hill (the last still standing that price)
is a decent bet.The one which I’m most keen on from the “will they won’t they group”, is BISHOPS ROAD.
He had an unspectacular year with Henry De Bromhead last year, but after being transferred to
Kerry Lee at the start of this year, he has looked a different animal. His win in January at,
Sandown, off a mark of 130, wasn’t so much a win but an annihilation of the field. He was rightly
raised 14lbs for that, but his follow up in the Grand National Trial at Haydock, over 3m 4f off 144,
was much of the same. He hosed up there, running away from Broadway Buffalo to win by 9L
going away, with cloudy Too a further 22L behind that one.If he gets in, and that appears very likely, he has to have a cracking chance still running off 144
having been raised to 154. 33/1 NRNB 5 places with Bet365 looks huge.That’s my stable finished…I think
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