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With the little bit of rain overnight a help for Man
of Harlech I have backed him EW. Staying more than a mile will be a plus today.Good luck with your bet today.If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
I don’t know why I bother. Mutarakez ante-post at 20/1, into 7/1 and then the bet is wrecked after 2 f with the horse pulling like a train and his race was run.
Disappointing.
I felt Udododontu would hold Secret Brief but no joy and the more fancied horse was virtually pulled up.
Lord Of The Land seemed a silly price all the way into the race and the ground probably put an end to him and several others today.
I wouldn’t write Mutarakez off on better ground, if he settles better. He did make some headway to challenge but his earlier exertions left his tank emptying early.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
unlucky triptych,great call (bravo zolo),also someone put up Birdman think it was foggy
Hope you had Man Of Harlech first five chalk man
My two didn’t quite make the cut!!
Oh well at least it is money back for those.
Looks like I am just on Stipulate and Secret Brief at big prices and Mutakarez.
I think that might do for now but maybe another pick on the day!!Well done Raymo, nicely picked out
Jac, that must have been painful to watch, not a lot more I can say
Well done Raymo and hard lines Jac.
Lord Of The Land managed to beat only 3 home.
That was a shocking run from Udododontu and surely he will never be seen on soft going again.
Surely with Predominate 3/1 in the first and Udododontu at 11/2 in the Lincoln itself you would think punters would learn about the folly of backing these short favourites in big handicaps. Likewise with Lord Of The Land, a 6/1 shot despite having as near to an identical profile to Mondialiste who was 25/1 last year.
Talk about betting on an empty head.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I agree about punters being silly for wading into poor value at the short end of the big handicaps, but your logic is a little scrambled there stevecaution. You’re confusing SPs with form.
If 1 year and 1 day ago, we knew what we now know about Mondialiste, he would not have been 25/1 – he would have been very short indeed. The fact that he went off 25/1 on the basis of the betting world’s limited information means
- absolutely nothing
. You can’t base any arguments on it at all.
Given O’Meara’s suspicious talents for improving horses from other yards, his positivity in targeting the Lincoln with Lord Of The Land and the eery similarities to Mondialiste, surely you can understand why he went off so short. That’s not to say he was a bet at the price, but it wasn’t the most empty-headed wager on offer.
I agree about punters being silly for wading into poor value at the short end of the big handicaps, but your logic is a little scrambled there stevecaution. You’re confusing SPs with form.
If 1 year and 1 day ago, we knew what we now know about Mondialiste, he would not have been 25/1 – he would have been very short indeed. The fact that he went off 25/1 on the basis of the betting world’s limited information means
- absolutely nothing
. You can’t base any arguments on it at all.
Given O’Meara’s suspicious talents for improving horses from other yards, his positivity in targeting the Lincoln with Lord Of The Land and the eery similarities to Mondialiste, surely you can understand why he went off so short. That’s not to say he was a bet at the price, but it wasn’t the most empty-headed wager on offer.
[/quote
Nothing wrong with my logic at all. It makes perfect sense.
Mondialiste came from Andre Fabre to David O’Meara rated 105 having run in France
Lord Of The Land came from Andre Fabre to David O’Meara rated 102 having run in France.That means Mondialiste had the better form. He had also had less races, therefore, arguably more scope.
The rating doesn’t have any real relevance regarding the Lincoln because it is a handicap and they are weighted to negate the ability.
It is purely a question of scope to improve and I said way back in the thread that I felt Mondialiste was a horse with more scope last year. I also said I was concerned for Lord Of The Land here, over a straight mile and in a big field on ground that would be a much stiffer test of stamina for a horse who had had the speed to win at six and a half furlongs.
There is no way that Lord Of The Land could be deemed to have better form than Mondialiste coming into this race. Try to explain it if you can but it just isn’t there because Mondialiste was the higher rated horse.
David O’Meara was as well know at this time last year for improving incoming horses from other yards, which was a large part of me plumping for Mondialiste last year. It does not mean that every horse who goes to the stable will show the same improvement and punters need to consider the value of the odds they are being offered.
Two horses with near identical profiles, one goes off 25/1 and other 6/1, what can that be apart from appalling value on the latter horse?
I did Mondialiste last year when he was under the radar and that is the difference. Lord Of The Land suffered from the exploits of his stable mate going close last year before going on to better things. A bandwagon was formed and the more people who get on a bandwagon creates a fervour of people who want to be on that bandwagon in case they miss something. These bandwagons crash more often than they reach the winning line in first place but it won’t stop the same thing happening again.
Mondialiste was 25/1 last year based on his profile at the time.
Lord Of The Land came in with as near an identical profile as you could ask for this time, so why wasn’t he also 25/1?
As I have said, Mondialiste arrived on these shores the more intrinsically talented at the time of these two horses and he had been more lightly raced.
I would check your own logic out for flaws before questioning mine.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
nwalton,yes I had the first 5 places,Oisen did well,he must have passed at least 4 horses late on.I hope you had 1st 5 places.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
yes mate,like you i had given up on the bet when the front four went clear as MOH (when last seen in picture) seemed to be going nowhere
Well done Raymo
I thought Bravo Zolo would hold out but Secret Brief kept on solidly (wish he’d eaten some of those cakes you’ll no doubt be tucking into now..LOL)Thanks for the commiserations BigG, nwalton and Steve
he tried his best and got a good start on them from stall 2, those hold up horses never got a chance to get going and oh how I wish my bookie would have paid out on 6th place (Emell 66/1)…well done chalk jockey with your place.All the place money won on Bravo Zolo is going onto Castilo Del Diablo in the 5.20 Kempton, finishing like a train LTO and the extra distance will suit today at Kempton so it could still be a winning day..fingers crossed.
Well done to foggy for backing Birdman each way and anyone else that found something that paid out.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...No luck with Castilo Del Diablo so beans on toast tonight
Still it’s the start of the flat so lots to look forward to and
one obvious one for the notebook and possibly Royal Ascot Mark Johnstons The Last Lion,
very impressive.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Thanks all and Trip just eating an egg custard in celebration!!
I did think at one stage Mr Grump was going to hold on and I frightened the dogs shouting!!!
AND Mrsraymo backed Brave Zolo too !! OOOPS! !!
..Mrs Raymo and I are going to seek our revenge in Nathan’s Aintree compy next week 
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