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SkyBet have led the way with the ‘justice refund’ in recent years – so much so that people are coming to expect refunds in more and more circumstances, not just at the big meetings either.’Expect’ really is the word too! Bookmakers who don’t offer the concession are slated as scum, thieves and all the rest by disgruntled punters on Twitter. We didn’t refund on Dominus the other week when he bobbled out of the stalls and lost his jockey and the subsequent social media rage was rather unpleasant.
Personally I think that the answer might be to look at it on a case by case basis. If the horse has any previous for pre-race antics then I’d say the customer should factor the chance of planting into their bet. If a horse plants out of the blue as Accidental Agent and Ickworth did, then perhaps a goodwill gesture is in order. The last thing you want to do is upset your ‘core’ race-to-race customer base.
This is an absolute BOMB but I think Global Spectrum isn’t the worst zillion-to-one shot in the world. Came from a poor position in the German Guineas and rated almost alongside Great Scot by the sectional offenders. I think they should be a similar sort of price, especially since GS is a Dutch Art with a nice scoopy soft ground knee action, also ought to do better at this trip given his cadence data/run style.
Would prefer to some of those who are absolutely drawing dead such as Old Glory and Eightsome Reel.
While I think he’s value at 300+, there are obviously dozens of negs. The German Guineas wasn’t much good. I don’t really like Great Scot’s chance. Gay Kellaway and Gerald Depardieu just don’t win these races…
Still…
2.30 – A’Ali (Misty Grey)
3.05 – Global Spectrum (Roseman)
3.40 – Altair (Queen Power)
4.20 – Thomas Hobson NAP (Called To The Bar)
5.00 – Velorum (Pogo)
5.35 – Babbo’s Boy & Questonaire (Constantinople)2.30 – Divine Spirit (Final Song)
3.05 – Themaxwecan NAP (Norway)
3.40 – Sea Of Class (Magical)
4.20 – Di Fede & Anna Nerium (Nyaleti)
5.00 – New Graduate (So Beloved)
5.35 – Summer Sands (Symbolize)2.30 – Mustashry (Accidental Agent)
3.05 – Guildsman (Threat)
3.40 – Imprimis NAP & Mabs Cross (Houtzen)
4.20 – Shaman (Phoenix Of Spain)
5.00 – The Grand Visir & Gunnery (Jukebox Jive)
5.35 – Riven Light (Oasis Charm)Oops, doubled up there.
Could my double race be the 5.00 please? Just Imprimis NAP in the 3.00.
Agreed entirely – Le Brivido does look chronically short.
Interesting to note from our speed figures that Accidental Agent actually ran to a higher level in this year’s Lockinge than he did in winning last year’s Queen Anne! Could still be on the up.
Ante-post pricing is rarely anything to do with liabilities, GT. You take a bowl of rice on these races ante-post versus the turnover on the day and your singles liabilities on the off will typically be the SP fav or morning paper fav no matter how the market moves in the early going.
Tipsters are surprisingly influential in weak markets: Holding/Calvin/Kealy can drive a price down to a point where their followers are ‘value-pwning’ themselves.
Don’t *think* there are any particular negative vibes around for Mustashry, just strength in others.
There has been some tipster momentum behind Le Brivido – Calvin and Holding among the ‘faces’ stepping in to tip it in the last week or two. There has also been a good deal of money and confidence behind Barney Roy. Hugh Taylor tipped Olmedo on the ATR preview night and gave Hazapour a good word too.
I think Mustashry edging out a bit is more to do with this strength of others rather than anything w/r/t his own prospects. Potential soft or good-to-soft ground would be a part of it too.
I too am a little surprised to see Le Brivido so clearly favoured by the market for all he had a much worse trip in the Lockinge. Mustashry’s Lockinge speed figure is better than any of the field have clocked lifetime.
Fair shout, can understand what you mean about McNae. Perhaps he is on cruise control sometimes although the person in his seat (sometimes Rachel Casey or Tom Stanley) does often have to play the ingenue and let Calvin, Candelora or whoever the expert may be do the bulk of the talking.
No excuse for being unprepared and bluffing your way through, though. There are dozens of people who’d enjoy that job.
What’s wrong with the old McNae-dog, GT?
The only weak link in the RTV line-up is Dave Nevison IMO.
I was on Chester duty today – very very impressed with Durston’s win in the TV race. I think he’s a potential group horse, especially in those conditions.
Oh, that’s an awful shame. I’m a big fan of John Ryan’s operation – he does seem to have quite a few likeable types a la Grey Britain. An honestly-campaigned, genuine and rather useful horse who’ll be much missed.
Fondest memory would be him bravely clinging on under an exquisitely judged ride from old Mosse at Newmarket a year or two back.
I *did* trim Magical, GT. Can see your point there and think we were sitting too big. I don’t think we’re up with the Irish Derby yet, waiting for a few more quotes about likely runners.
I’m very much against the modern climate in online bookmaking where customers who are winning from the wisdom of their own opinions and research are losing accounts just because they’re winning. You’re not an arber or any kind of abuser and you’re generally betting into strong markets in good races – you’re just ahead of the market with your perceptions more often than not. I think this kind of business is important to retain and use as a mark. We have massive individual workloads with the day-to-day racing and there is pressure to be ‘up’ with as many ante-post races as possible. I think if a market needs attention and you can get a cheap prompter from a good judge, you might as well take it.
The thing is: a good chunk of the firms on the right-hand side of Oddschecker are ‘middle market’ bots. Say Ladbrokes, Coral and Sportingbet shorten one: then you know Redzone, Sportpesa, 10bet, Bethard and Moplay will all insta-cut because there is no human controlling their prices. They’re just cutting to the new average price across the board. Sometimes it can just take one firm to make a price change and you get the impression of a ‘sea of blue’ across the board because the bot firms are following on. Then say a bet365, WH or Paddys trader happens to see a bet or looks at Oddschecker – they’ll see a massive wave of blue and probably be spooked into falling in line as well. You can see how ridiculous things are getting and how ‘moves’ can snowball out of nothing sometimes.
“Prince Of Wales Stakes:
65 points @ 7/2 (L) Magical (min 100/30)”Just spotted this on the ticker, GT!
Will try to make sure your account(s) get ringfenced against the beancounters.
You’re the man, Rob North. It really was nominative predestination when they created you.
Classic bit of Roger Dodger action at Wetherby yesterday with Club Wexford winning just one day after finishing a tired 5/9. Admittedly he did a bit too much from the front the day before, but it was still another excellent bit of training. Wasn’t unbacked either!
The Revenant won well – very confidently ridden and arrived under hands and heels to pick off Imaging. Hard to tell from visuals but looked a relatively quick surface too.
I’d emailed the Al Asayl boys and belatedly got a reply (went to my junk box) – QEII is the long-term target, felt Royal Ascot came too soon after a “misadventure” in training.
Not the best bit of raceplanning IMO. A weak division will soon open up to the 3yos after all. Still, I suppose soft ground is more likely at that time of year.
