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King Ottokar 9/1
Good form beating both Raise You on debut & Dashing Willoughby FTO this season at Newbury. Travelled like a dream at Chester but blatantly didn’t get home over the 12F, so back to this stiff 10F should suit well.
Fancy Fox Chairman in this, on at 8s just as Oisin Murphy mentioned him on LOS. Very eyecatching at Chester. Very well bred.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’ve done Fox Chairman and King Ottakar, sadly not anything like prices you two have got… But that’s to be expected on softer ground than a lot of their rivals will appreciate.
Also done Aidan’s outsider Old Glory, imo massively over-priced @ 41/1.Value Is EverythingThis is a really cracking renewal of the race this year. Very exciting to see how this works out. Fingers crossed it doesn’t look like we will get anymore rain now, so might be GS ground by the off.
It’s also a race that has strong trends, although the ground is going to play some part to weaken the trends I’m sure. However for the last 9 years, this race has either been won by the top 2 highest rated horses or the favourite. A minimum sire index of 9.5, a top 3 finish that season with a min RPR race figure of 106 and if run more than 3 times coming in off a strong race.
You can go through the card here and eliminate based on failing at least 2 trends. Great Scot, Kick On, Roseman and Sangarius are not certain to be running over an optimum distance. Getchagetchagetcha and Arthur Kitt are not quite up to this standard and coming in off a minor race. Global Spectrum, Eightsome Reel and Old Glory are not at the level needed yet. (although I’ve stuck a few quid on Old Glory just in case GT!) :). Cap Francais fits most trends, but is rated only 103 having raced 5 times, so is likely to be not good enough. Buckhurst is very interesting having run only 3 times, but is weak in the market at 16/1, probably because the ground was quick at the Curragh in his last race, so that leaves just 3 horses to focus on.
2 mentioned here, King Ottokar, Fox Chairman and one more, Cape of Good Hope.
Going back to the first trend mentioned, unless there is very strong support near to the off, King Ottokar still has a bit to find, rated only 106. I agree though, he is worth considering after his Chester run, as this looks like it is his optimum trip and he has his cut in the ground.
Fox Chairman is very interesting as favourite, but I would like to see a market move closer to the off to get really interested. One factor putting me off at the moment however is inexperience. No horse in the last 10 years has won having raced only twice before.
So that leaves Cape of Good Hope. He is very very strong on the trends, highest rated in the field, coming in off an established route, derby trial and French Derby and his 4th in that is the best form in the book. Couple that with the AOB/Ryan Moore dreamteam and the fact he is full brother to Highland Reel and Idaho and he looks a stand out price @ 5/1 to me. There is one concern however. I don’t know about the ground! Argh. I would be smashing in TBH if it was Good or better.
Guys, whats your feeling about him and the ground conditions?
He will win aslong as the ground is drying quick enough, shouldnt be anymore rain. But then again there shouldnt have been as much yesterday
This is an absolute BOMB but I think Global Spectrum isn’t the worst zillion-to-one shot in the world. Came from a poor position in the German Guineas and rated almost alongside Great Scot by the sectional offenders. I think they should be a similar sort of price, especially since GS is a Dutch Art with a nice scoopy soft ground knee action, also ought to do better at this trip given his cadence data/run style.
Would prefer to some of those who are absolutely drawing dead such as Old Glory and Eightsome Reel.
While I think he’s value at 300+, there are obviously dozens of negs. The German Guineas wasn’t much good. I don’t really like Great Scot’s chance. Gay Kellaway and Gerald Depardieu just don’t win these races…
Still…
Fox Chairman + Great Scot my two!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’ve followed you in on Golden Spectrum, LS. Hasn’t run on a soft surface but Dutch Art is encouraging, then again dam didn’t act on it. Am not so sure he’ll stay this far on this stamina sapping ground. However, if he does – and if they go quick – unlike in Germany, a horse dropped out the back may be favoured. tbh Wouldn’t have his chance anything like Great Scot, but even in believing he’s a fair 2% 50/1 shot he’s a good bet @ 399/1 (even got some 449/1)!
Value Is EverythingI seem to be falling in line with many in here, in that I think Fox Chairman looks
a very decent type. It could have been 2 from 2 if he hadn’t found himself in
a pocket last time out at Chester. Hopefully De Sousa will avoid the same
problems this time around. I’m nowhere near the good odds snapped up by
some, but the 4/1 I took this morning seems fair enough.I’m on sangarius
Ground should be fine, showed plenty on return behind king of comedy who he was giving 3lb too
Will hopefully come on for the run
Sangarius won that really well, but if for a clear run that would have been very tight with Fox Chairman.
Well done to all that had the winner!
Jesus Fox Chairman up there with the unluckiest horses about.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Nice one FinalFurlong, he won that well
I’m hoping that Fox Chairman isn’t going to be one of those unlucky horses,
he had another nightmare in line with last time at Chester. I’m a fan
of De Sousa, so I’ll just put it down to one of those things. I might
not be so forgiving next time
Well done FF and all Sangarius backers. I was a fan of this horse last year but went against him today. Prominent position in a slowly run race helped. Fox Chairman would’ve given him a race with a better run but Sangarius won well.
Value Is Everything
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