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If Sea Of Class lines up for the POW she’ll probably be shorter than 5/2, Istabraq; but 5/2 ante-post no not in my opinion. I don’t like to play a first time out (who’s missed preps for any reason) ante-post that late in the season. As well as Enable, Sea Of Class has had her problems too. If I backed anything right now it would be Magical @ 4/1. AOB’s top middle-distance horse (female or male).
Value Is EverythingAre you looking at the two Group 3s on Derby Day before the weekend at all?
I’ll be playing the day/evening before in the Group 3’s and/or listed races, Frenchy.
Value Is EverythingQueen Anne prep for the old Rev-dog at Baden-Baden today, GT. Takes on Irish raider Imaging and some locals at 4.10.
Would want to be winning quite well to have a chance next month, obviously. Ground described as ‘good’ by the local turf club, though that could be anywhere between g-f and heavy!
I know what you mean with German going reports, LS.
Hope it’s not proper good-firm ground; otherwise there’ll be wholesale non-runners! Looking at form of the top five in the betting, all seem to want some give. At B365 it’s 11/8 The Rev’ and 13/8 Imaging, 8/1 bar. Volfango and Degas wouldn’t be out of it, but need to return to their bests. Does 11/8 tempt you in today? On basic ability and scope for more improvement a deserving favourite today, on the other hand Weld is in very good form at the moment and Imaging appears ultra consistent. You’re riht, for The Rev’ to be up to Queen Anne standard will need to win well today. Although if winning well enough to prove himself effective in one grade higher (Group 2’s) could make that further progress next time. However, do you think as far as Royal Ascot goes it’s a negative he’s gone to Germany? Possibly smacks of hunting out a softer surface and (confirming the imo now probability of) needing some give to run at Ascot. 
Value Is EverythingAh, that’s disappointing LS; a horse to keep an eye on for the future anyway.
Value Is EverythingCoronation Cup:
LAY 35 points @ 2.2/1 (betfair) Kew Gardens (min 11/4)
25 points @ 16/1 (B365) Defoe (min 14/1)
20 points @ 16/1 (PP) Communique (min 14/1)
36 points @ 7/2 (L) Lah Ti Dah (min 7/2)
LAY 18 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Defoe (min 20/1)Thought originally this race would cut up badly and instead LTD confirmed and Old Persian supplementing (his price coming out of others) scuppered the expected ante-post value here. LTD, Comm’ and Def’ all available at bigger prices now. Kew Gardens has gone out a little, might soon be worth lessening liabilities if getting much bigger, although not currently what I’d call a “value” price.
Defoe’s form isn’t that far below the market principles, but have to think all three would need to be below their bests to win. Often thought of as a soft ground horse, but the good-firm efforts have been in better races. That said; although maybe not a bad each way bet, not as good a win only than it was when striking the bet.
Value Is EverythingThe Revenant won well – very confidently ridden and arrived under hands and heels to pick off Imaging. Hard to tell from visuals but looked a relatively quick surface too.
I’d emailed the Al Asayl boys and belatedly got a reply (went to my junk box) – QEII is the long-term target, felt Royal Ascot came too soon after a “misadventure” in training.
Not the best bit of raceplanning IMO. A weak division will soon open up to the 3yos after all. Still, I suppose soft ground is more likely at that time of year.
the Reverant is proving you right in your belief in him, LS. Hope you were on today.
Totally agree with you about the milers being currently a weak division, with possible exception of Mustashry. Phoenix might prove up to beating the older milers; hopefully (for my TRF 10 To Follow) Too Darn Hot too. Curious decision for The Rev’ to miss Royal Ascot (tbh am always sceptical about “misadventure”s) when he’s obviously in A1 condition right now. Like you say – more likely to get softer ground in October.Who do you like this weekend, LS?
Value Is Everything2019 Derby:
21 points @ 25/1 Quorto
27 points @ 25/1 Too Darn Hot
25 points @ 14/1 Anthony Van Dyk
LAY 10 points @ 5.6/1 Too Darn Hot
64 points @ 5/1 (L) Telecaster (min 9/2)
57 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) Broome (min 5/1)
With Telecaster given draw 2 and Sir Dragonet widest in stall 13, another…
18 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) Broome (min 9/2)If you haven’t done Telecaster yet, be best to reduce stake to 37 points.
Value Is EverythingHello GT
I’m not on AVD in the derby yet do you think it’s a bet at these prices and if so what would you have on it now? I make it a true chance of 15/2 at my stab at a 100% book.
Cheers Mark
I do again make Anthony Van Dyck value at betfair odds, Mark.
My 100% book:
21% Broome between 7/2 and 4/1
19% Sir Dragonet 9/2
19% Telecaster 9/2
13% Anthony Van Dyck 13/2
6.5% Bangkok 15/1
6.5% Madhmoon 15/1
6% Circus Maximus 16/1
5.5% Japan 18/1
2% Line Of Duty 40/1
1% Norway 100/1
0.25% Humanitarian 400/1
0.2% Sovereign 500/1
0.05% Hiroshima 2000/1If I had no bets yet it would be:
66 points @ 5.8/1 Broome
46 points 5.4/1 Telecaster
37 points @ 8.4/1 Anthony Van DyckHowever, may be best to do half a bet on AVD now and half later. Lots of punters are put off by third strings. Normally I find even the third strings I make value often lengthen on day of race.
Value Is EverythingCoronation Cup:
LAY 35 points @ 2.2/1 (betfair) Kew Gardens (min 11/4)
25 points @ 16/1 (B365) Defoe (min 14/1)
20 points @ 16/1 (PP) Communique (min 14/1)
36 points @ 7/2 (L) Lah Ti Dah (min 7/2)
LAY 18 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Defoe (min 20/1)
another:
25 points @ 3.9/1 (betfair) Lah Ti Dah (min 7/2) (61 points all told)
9 points @ 35/1 (betfair) Communique (min 20/1) (29 points all told)
23 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Morando (min 15/1)
Probably be coming back to back Kew Gardens at some point tomorrow.Value Is Everything2:00 Epsom
74 points @ 7/2 (betfair) Misty Grey (min 3/1)
saver:
54 points @ 11/8 (L) Pinatubo (min 11/8)Value Is Everything
Hope it’s not proper good-firm ground; otherwise there’ll be wholesale non-runners! Looking at form of the top five in the betting, all seem to want some give. At B365 it’s 11/8 The Rev’ and 13/8 Imaging, 8/1 bar. Volfango and Degas wouldn’t be out of it, but need to return to their bests. Does 11/8 tempt you in today? On basic ability and scope for more improvement a deserving favourite today, on the other hand Weld is in very good form at the moment and Imaging appears ultra consistent. You’re riht, for The Rev’ to be up to Queen Anne standard will need to win well today. Although if winning well enough to prove himself effective in one grade higher (Group 2’s) could make that further progress next time. However, do you think as far as Royal Ascot goes it’s a negative he’s gone to Germany? Possibly smacks of hunting out a softer surface and (confirming the imo now probability of) needing some give to run at Ascot. 
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