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Great start Mark!!!
Belated thanks, Joni.
Not as good as you though.
9/1 Lah Ti Dar looked good, I see you’ve got 33/1 and 25/1.
Just hope it doesn’t come up too firm for her at Epsom.Value Is EverythingHi GT – Just wondering if you were going to keep up this thread or if you’ve decided to knock it on the head
Hi Mtoto,
Just got back from a wonderful walking holiday in the Peak District. Will keep the thread going, but it’ll be more irregular than previously. Spending more time with my girlfriend and trying to get the house (garden) spruced up in order to sell/move hopefully next year.Value Is EverythingHi GT – Thanks for the update and enjoy the gardening – just about to do a bit myself now
Derby:
44 points @ 6/1 (PP) Roaring Lion (min 11/2)
29 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Masar (min 15/1)Value Is Everything7:35 Sandown:
64 points @ 9/4 (B365) Weekender (min 85/40)
44 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Mount Moriah (min 11/2)Value Is Everything8:10 Sandown
38 points each way @ 9/2 (B365) Fabricate (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingOaks:
30 points @ 9/1 Lah Ti Dar
64 points 9/4 (B365) Wild Illusion (min 85/40)
56 points 7/1 (B365) Bye Bye Baby (min 11/2)Value Is EverythingSome somehow saw Winter in I Can Fly last time; going off only 7/1 for the Guineas. Ran no sort of race, why?
Wild Illusion never looked to be travelling in that race. By Dubawi (whose best progeny tend to stay further than he did) and out of a 2m winner… and dam’s sire Monsun another stamina influence. Even so, 4th in the one mile Guineas and Marcel Boussac form are the best two form performances going in to this race and (on both breeding and the way she stays on at lesser distances) may improve for a step up to this trip. Magic Wand might be the Ballydoyle “first string”, but their four top two year old fillies aren’t here – Clemmie, Happily, September and Magical. So there’s an arguement their 5 horses are their 5th to 10th strings. AOB made a poor decision running Happily in the Irish 1000. Cheshire Oaks form is no more than ok and the second Forever Together didn’t get a clear run – Magic Wand poor value for the winning distance as such, but seemingly raced green, possibly had a lot more in the tank… or was it temperament? Racing with ears pricked and head high. Can see why Ryan has gone for her as if anything shows a lot of improvement it’ll be Magic Wand (or Perfect Clarity) given her probable greenness. Flattering impressive in winning her maiden on very soft ground, was that flattering? …before disappointing @ 6/4 in Lingfield Oaks Trial only a week later. Did the race come too soon? Was the ground not soft enough? However, the Winner of that race Perfect Clarity is my most likely saver. Unbeaten and improved a lot from first to second start, the daughter of Nathaniel shouldn’t be underestimated. Musidora winner and third, Give And Take and Ejtyah could improve, but they finished in a heap at York, they can’t all be good. William Haggas is a trainer I really like who is in top form; but GAT is not thought to be even the stable’s best filly. Although not as likely to find big improvement as the “first string”, Bye Bye Baby‘s performance in the Blue Wind is (to date) just as good form and may get the run of the race up front (if not sacrificed as pacemaker). To me – BBB looks the value out of the AOB contingent.Value Is EverythingOaks:
30 points @ 9/1 Lah Ti Dar
64 points 9/4 (B365) Wild Illusion (min 85/40)
56 points 7/1 (B365) Bye Bye Baby (min 11/2)
saver:
20 points @ 15/2 (VC) Perfect Clarity (min 7/1)Value Is EverythingCoronation Cup:
Betting without fav:
70 points @ 2/1 (betfair) Idaho (min 15/8)Value Is EverythingDerby:
44 points @ 6/1 (PP) Roaring Lion (min 11/2)
29 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Masar (min 15/1)
25 points @ 10/1 (B365) Young Rascal (min 10/1)
10 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Dee Ex Bee (min 33/1)Value Is EverythingMy 100% book for good-soft:
20/21 Saxon Warrior, 7/1 Roaring Lion, 17/2 Young Rascal, 15/1 Masar, 18/1 Delano Roosavelt, 20/1 Hazapour, 28/1 Dee Ex Bee, 40/1 The Pentagon, 50/1 Kew Gardens, 66/1 Knight To Behold, 250/1 Sevenna Star, 400/1 Zabriskie
With good-soft ground Roaring Lion now imo has a 12.5% 7/1 chance, on good-firm it would’ve been 18% 9/2. That means I’ve got imo a bad price! However, @ 11/1 if you’re not already on I’d advise a bet of same size @ 11/1. Saxon Warrior isn’t an awful price, I make him just about a more likely winner than loser @ 51% 20/21. Bookmaker’s price not quite good enough. Good chance he’ll improve at this trip and a better chance of doing so than Roaring Lion. However, on form up to this point there isn’t much atall between the levels of ability shown by the two horses. Yet one is odds-on and one double figures. Masar may well have been around a length second to the favourite in the Guineas had he raced from a similar position. Again, of the two I prefer Saxon Warrior’s chances of staying the trip, but not as much as the betting suggests; Masar available @ 20/1 this morning. I would’ve been against Young Rascal on good-firm, but good-soft may be enough to bring his abundant stamina in to play. Hasn’t had much racing and should hold the Chester Vase runner-up. But Dee Ex Bee wasn’t far behind the winner that day and is also arguably worth a small bet at a massive price.
Value Is EverythingTimes now indicate the going is now genuinely good ground. Favouring Roaring Lion, Masar and the favourite. So:
Another:
15 points @ 13/1 (betfair) Roaring Lion (min 7/1)
7 points @ 23/1 (betfair) Masar (min 14/1)Value Is EverythingBetting without Saxon Warrior:
15 points @ 9/2 (betfair) Roaring Lion (min 3/1)Value Is Everything
Wild Illusion never looked to be travelling in that race. By Dubawi (whose best progeny tend to stay further than he did) and out of a 2m winner… and dam’s sire Monsun another stamina influence. Even so, 4th in the one mile Guineas and Marcel Boussac form are the best two form performances going in to this race and (on both breeding and the way she stays on at lesser distances) may improve for a step up to this trip. Magic Wand might be the Ballydoyle “first string”, but their four top two year old fillies aren’t here – Clemmie, Happily, September and Magical. So there’s an arguement their 5 horses are their 5th to 10th strings. AOB made a poor decision running Happily in the Irish 1000. Cheshire Oaks form is no more than ok and the second Forever Together didn’t get a clear run – Magic Wand poor value for the winning distance as such, but seemingly raced green, possibly had a lot more in the tank… or was it temperament? 
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