June 2, 2018 at 14:12 #1355862
My 100% book for good-soft:
20/21 Saxon Warrior, 7/1 Roaring Lion, 17/2 Young Rascal, 15/1 Masar, 18/1 Delano Roosavelt, 20/1 Hazapour, 28/1 Dee Ex Bee, 40/1 The Pentagon, 50/1 Kew Gardens, 66/1 Knight To Behold, 250/1 Sevenna Star, 400/1 Zabriskie
With good-soft ground Roaring Lion now imo has a 12.5% 7/1 chance, on good-firm it would’ve been 18% 9/2. That means I’ve got imo a bad price! However, @ 11/1 if you’re not already on I’d advise a bet of same size @ 11/1. Saxon Warrior isn’t an awful price, I make him just about a more likely winner than loser @ 51% 20/21. Bookmaker’s price not quite good enough. Good chance he’ll improve at this trip and a better chance of doing so than Roaring Lion. However, on form up to this point there isn’t much atall between the levels of ability shown by the two horses. Yet one is odds-on and one double figures. Masar may well have been around a length second to the favourite in the Guineas had he raced from a similar position. Again, of the two I prefer Saxon Warrior’s chances of staying the trip, but not as much as the betting suggests; Masar available @ 20/1 this morning. I would’ve been against Young Rascal on good-firm, but good-soft may be enough to bring his abundant stamina in to play. Hasn’t had much racing and should hold the Chester Vase runner-up. But Dee Ex Bee wasn’t far behind the winner that day and is also arguably worth a small bet at a massive price.value is everythingJune 2, 2018 at 15:43 #1355875
Times now indicate the going is now genuinely good ground. Favouring Roaring Lion, Masar and the favourite. So:
15 points @ 13/1 (betfair) Roaring Lion (min 7/1)
7 points @ 23/1 (betfair) Masar (min 14/1)value is everythingJune 2, 2018 at 15:47 #1355877
Betting without Saxon Warrior:
15 points @ 9/2 (betfair) Roaring Lion (min 3/1)value is everythingJune 2, 2018 at 16:43 #1355898
Should’ve done the forecast.
!st, 2nd and 3rd.value is everythingJune 2, 2018 at 16:47 #1355902MTOTO88Participant
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Thanks GT – Had a right old touch on Masar today. Top manJune 2, 2018 at 23:38 #1355959
I thought you might, Mtoto.
Here’s another one for you:
76 points @ 6/1 (B365) Dee Ex Bee (min 9/2)
Has already put up a performance good enough to win an average St Leger and – given the way he races – has more improvement in him once stamina is fully tested.value is everythingJune 3, 2018 at 00:03 #1355961
741 points profit on today’s race.value is everythingJune 3, 2018 at 00:27 #1355962
Stakes since last update: 569
Return since last update: 922
Profit since last update:+353 points
Total Stakes: 1309
Total Return: 1980.2
Total Profit: +671.2 points
Ante-post bets yet to be included in totals:
St Leger: 76 points @ 6/1 Dee Ex Beevalue is everythingJune 12, 2018 at 13:24 #1356662
Had a weekend away from racing, and just seen that massively impressive performance by Calyx. Wow! Personally, I think bookmakers have under-estimated just because it’s so early in the season. ie Because a lot more top two year olds will be appearing in following months doesn’t matter. We don’t need to know what he’s going to be up against. Any horse’s chance can be measured by considering:
a) How good was the performance?
b) How much potential/improvement and therefore what rating he’ll be capable of come the first Classic.
c) How (b) compares to the Average Guineas winner of the last ten years (excluding Frankel).
d) Will temperament enable him to be effective at the distance he’s bred for?
I have seldom seen a performance of this standard by a debutant this early in the season and have little doubt he’s a top class horse in the making.
So given how good the performance was, Calyx only needs to relax and make normal improvement in order to be a 2000 Guineas horse. Conformation, stride and who the trainer is… all suggest this horse will make more than normal improvement. Question is at what distance?
As others have mentioned, on the face of it bred to be a top class miler. By Champion Miler Kingman out of Marcel Boussac second Helleborine. However, looking further back it isn’t as straightforward. Kingman’s asset was speed/acceleration and showed top class sprinting fractions in winning four Group 1 mile races; performances which proved he could’ve been Champion Sprinter had connections chosen that route. Also Helleborine failed to train on (hope Calyx trains on) and her full sister African Rose best at 6f. Latter too exhuberent to stay as far as her pedigree suggested; unusually came back in trip to win the Sprint Cup after starting out at a mile.
Calyx didn’t settle perfectly, raced with head a little high and showed blistering speed, so wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a sprinter too. However, most of this family get further than sprint distances and this was his debut; so at this stage it’s probably greeness – should relax with age/racing.
Therefore, is Calyx likely to win the Guineas? Honestly, No.
Has Calyx got a better than 5% (fair 20/1) chance of winning the Guineas? Ohhhh Yyyyess, wouldn’t be offering any more than half that if I were a bookie.
2019 2000 Guineas
30 points @ 20/1 (B365) Calyx (min 14/1)value is everythingJune 12, 2018 at 17:25 #1356692
81 points @ 3/1 (PP) Harry Angel (min 5/2)
Plenty will be against Harry Angel on his Ascot form. However, imo it’s not about the track, it’s about pace of the race and team tactics (what I call “non-triers”). Jockey on Intelligence Cross going too fast for his own good… but strangely enough improving Team Coolmore’s chances. Had they not done it last year in both Commonwealth Cup and Champion Sprint Harry Angel would have definitely won the former and possibly the latter too. In both races HA too free after being taken on up front; going too fast too soon. Winners Caravaggio and Librisa Breeze coming from off the pace. But – at his best – Harry Angel is imo quite a bit better than any of these, so @ 3/1 he’s worth taking the chance. Hopefully the “pacemaker” will be drawn away from Harry.value is everythingJune 12, 2018 at 20:38 #1356708
I backed Stradivarius @ 7/1 ante-post for the Gold Cup before this thread started.
With good-firm ground increasingly likely, which means imo Vazirabad will probably stay at home and Torcedor’s chance decreases too.
I’ve heard some say Order Of St George isn’t as good on it either. I don’t agree with that, but even so may well cause a shortening of Stradivarius. So if you aren’t on already I suggest:
76 points @ 5/2 (L) Stradivarius (min 85/40)
23 points @ 16/1 (PP) Desert Skyline (min 14/1)value is everythingJune 13, 2018 at 11:30 #1356747
St James’s Palace Stakes:
42 points @ 8/1 (Boyle) Romanised (min 13/2)value is everythingJune 13, 2018 at 14:06 #1356755
80 points @ 11/4 (B365) Calyx (min 9/4)value is everythingJune 13, 2018 at 20:42 #1356790
80 points @ 11/4 (B365) Calyx (min 9/4)
32 points @ 5/2 (sportsbook) Sergei Prokofiev (min 9/4)
imo This race is 33.33% Calyx, 33.33% Serfei Prokofiev and 33.33% the field.value is everythingJune 13, 2018 at 22:38 #1356796
51 points @ 5/1 (B365) Equilateral (min 9/2)value is everything
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