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tbh Hadn’t worked out a proper 100% book, Istabraq; but have just worked out one; which has pinpointed another value horse. Haggas has come to form just right. The two favourites being (imo) such poor value have made more of the others value.
19% Pink Dogwood 9/2*
18% Mehdaayih 9/2
17% Maqsad 9/2
13.5% Anapurna 6/1
10% Frankellina 9/1
10% Manuela De Vega 9/1
3.25% Tarnawa 28/1
3.25% Lavenders Blue 28/1
2% Fleeting 50/1
1.5% Tautake 66/1
1% Peach Tree 100/1
1% Delphinia 100/1
0.3% Blue Gardinia 300/1
0.2% Sh Boom 500/1*The market will tell a lot about Pink Dogwood. My assessment is obviously on form, but if she’s flying at home might be better than I rate her.
Value Is Everything2019 Oaks:
23 points @ 25/1 Hermosa
LAY 11 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Hermosa (min 28/1)
36 points @ 14/1 (B365) Iridessa (min 11/1)
4 points @ 25/1 (PP) Hermosa (min 20/1)
LAY 12 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Pink Dogwood (min 11/2)
25 points @ 10/1 (PP) Annapurna (min 17/2)
15 points @ 16/1 (L) Manuela De Vega (min 12/1)
55 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Maqsad (min 13/2)
saver:
12 points @ 14/1 (B365) Frankellina (min 11/1)Value Is Everything*The market will tell a lot about Pink Dogwood. My assessment is obviously on form, but if she’s flying at home might be better than I rate her.
Market – and the fact Hermosa missed this – suggests I’ve under-estimated her chance (and therefore how much value there is in others. Sometimes got to bite the bullet and change:
2019 Oaks:
23 points @ 25/1 Hermosa
LAY 11 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Hermosa (min 28/1)
36 points @ 14/1 (B365) Iridessa (min 11/1)
4 points @ 25/1 (PP) Hermosa (min 20/1)
LAY 12 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Pink Dogwood (min 11/2)
25 points @ 10/1 (PP) Annapurna (min 17/2)
15 points @ 16/1 (L) Manuela De Vega (min 12/1)
55 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Maqsad (min 13/2)
saver:
12 points @ 14/1 (B365) Frankellina (min 11/1)
Small bet to limit liabilities:
12 points @ 11/4 (B365) Pink Dogwood (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingCoronation Cup:
LAY 35 points @ 2.2/1 (betfair) Kew Gardens (min 11/4)
25 points @ 16/1 (B365) Defoe (min 14/1)
20 points @ 16/1 (PP) Communique (min 14/1)
36 points @ 7/2 (L) Lah Ti Dah (min 7/2)
LAY 18 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Defoe (min 20/1)
25 points @ 3.9/1 (betfair) Lah Ti Dah (min 7/2) (61 points all told)
9 points @ 35/1 (betfair) Communique (min 20/1) (29 points all told)
23 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Morando (min 15/1)
to limit liabilities:
15 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Kew Gardens (min 3.3/1)Value Is EverythingThanks guys, yes. Four wins from 4 races, two savers and two “main bet” victories .
15p R4 on Space Blues and 10p on the saver Pinatubo which meant a small loss on the latter and only 80 points profit on former. Anapurna was a fairly good win though. Shame about Defoe; tbh expected firmer ground! They must have watered quite a bit for it to kick up like that and times not as quick as proper good-firm… Which favoured Defoe (although probably favoured Anapurna too). Will count up Friday’s total tomorrow. I’ve tried five times and made it different each time! Serves me right for having such a mess of bets in Oaks and Coronation. Same for tomorrow’s Derby I’m afraid.
Value Is EverythingHad another look and here is my latest 100% book for the Derby:
20% Broome 4/1 (6/1 available)
20% Sir Dragonet 4/1
20% Telecaster 4/1 (5/1 available)
13% Anthony Van Dyck 13/2 (10/1 available)
6.25% Madhmoon 15/1
5.75% Circus Maximus 16/1
5.25% Bangkok 18/1
5.25% Japan 18/1
2% Line Of Duty 50/1
1.25% Sovereign 80/1 (159/1 available)
0.75% Norway 132/1
0.5% Humanitarian 200/1
0 Hiroshima Worse than 2000/1Value Is Everything2019 Derby:
21 points @ 25/1 Quorto
27 points @ 25/1 Too Darn Hot
25 points @ 14/1 Anthony Van Dyk
LAY 10 points @ 5.6/1 Too Darn Hot
64 points @ 5/1 (L) Telecaster (min 9/2)
57 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) Broome (min 5/1)
18 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) Broome (min 9/2)
6 points @ 159/1 (betfair) Sovereign (min 129/1)Value Is Everything4:00 Musselburgh
79 points @ 3/1 (B365) Ice Gala (min 11/4)
saver:
24 points @ 100/30 (B365) Red Starlight (min 100/30)Value Is EverythingJust looking at the 2:35 Epsom, Istabraq; but don’t think I’ll play. Thought about Veracious, might have needed the run on reappearance, but imo didn’t find much under pressure and now tongue tied for the first time… Awesometank also in new headgear, cheek pieces; struggled to beat Anna Nerium last time… And too many runners here want to race up with the pace. Some that can’t get there won’t run to form and/or will go too fast and set it up for a closer… Nyaleti has imo just as good form as the favourite, but what happened last time out? And he’s one that goes from at or near the front. But the closers Bella Regazza and (to a degree) Anna Nerium may need good or softer to be at their bests. Therefore, I’ll probably file it in the too difficult tray… at least until after the first race time is known – seeing if it’s still over-watered goodish ground.
Yes, finished for tonight.
Value Is EverythingNot quite finished:
Prix Du Jockey Club – Sunday:
31 points @ 10/1 (B365) Surfman (min 17/2)Value Is Everything
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