May 22, 2019 at 17:42 #1440113
7:05 Sandown (tomorrow)
91 points @ 13/8 (B365) Dee Ex Bee (min 6/4)value is everythingMay 22, 2019 at 17:55 #1440114
82 points @ 15/8 (B365) Regal Reality (min 7/4)value is everythingMay 22, 2019 at 19:29 #1440137
I see Timeform “view” reckon Magna Grecia is a good bet @ 11/10.
Apparently Too Darn Hot hasn’t grown and therefore probably not going to be the/as dominent over three year olds as he was at two. ie Bigger sorts will catch up with him and/or almost catch up. Is he that small? Looked small agaist Telecaster, but most horses would look small against that one.
Personally, I wasn’t that disappointed in TDH’s York performance. No other from the pack closed on the winner. Looked to me as if TDH closed too quickly and that effort (and/or fitness) cost him. Convinced Telecaster is a top notch performer anyway. That said, it wasn’t any improvement on TDH’s 2 year old form and Magna Grecia has improved. On form now, there’s not much between the pair and the Irish horse appears the more likely to improve further. However, I agree the fact they’re coming here suggests TDH is flying at home.
Skardu hasn’t had much racing, could yet improve in to a true Group 1 horse and might end up a fair each way or place only bet. Maybe Shelir is best of the rest, but has quite a bit to find. Can’t see anything else playing. Phoenix Of Spain owes getting a significant pace/sectional advantage for his proximity to TDH at Donny and was much more experienced than MG in the Futurity. Also missed both English and French Guineas due to not being fit after a setback.
Taking emotion/my love of Too Darn Hot out of it, I think (if both behave themselves before the off) Magna Grecia should start the fractional favourite. Neither should be odds-on – which is not what I wanted to say after taking 1.82 Magna! Got around half of my bet laid back at a loss, put 2.02 on the pink column and someone took it which am very grateful. Sadly can’t recommend anyone laying current 2.48.
Might come back before the off with a lay bet on Magna, or backing TDH or Skardu for a place.value is everythingMay 22, 2019 at 19:49 #1440138
LAY 35 points @ 2.2/1 (betfair) Kew Gardens (min 11/4)
25 points @ 16/1 (B365) Defoe (min 14/1)
20 points @ 16/1 (PP) Communique (min 14/1)
36 points @ 7/2 (L) Lah Ti Dah (min 7/2)value is everythingMay 22, 2019 at 21:36 #1440147
- Total Posts 468
GT any thoughts on Regal Reality for the Queen Anne having tipped him up for tomorrow?May 23, 2019 at 01:25 #1440190
One of the reasons why I’ve backed Regal Reality today, Frenchy; is because of the step up in trip to 10f. I don’t think RR has the speed to trouble his stable companion in the Queen Anne… He’s also in the Prince Of Wales, but tbh don’t think he’ll be good enough there.value is everythingMay 23, 2019 at 01:41 #1440192
82 points @ 15/8 (B365) Regal Reality (min 7/4)
45 points @ 2/1 (betfair) Matterhorn (min 15/8)value is everythingMay 23, 2019 at 06:42 #1440193
- Total Posts 468
Ah yes thought this race was over 9F for some reason
Any view on the Heron Stakes? King of Comedy caught my interest as JG used this race as a stepping stone for Without Parole into the SJP last year.May 23, 2019 at 14:22 #1440231
Had a look at the Heron, Frenchy. Too dificult for me. On form Walkinthesand has a good chance, but 1m here might be too short if they don’t go a strong pace. Surprised he’s coming back in trip tbh. On form, I almost backed Sangarius with Stoutey in such brilliant form. A horse who could imo be Group 1 class if all is well with him. But I believe he met with a setback which is why wasn’t trained for the 2000 Guineas. Will he be fit? Why is he tongue tied for the first time?… Was entered in Ireland until recently. Would he have gone there if in A1 condition? And uneasy in the market not a good sign. Had I got involved, King Of Comedy would certainly have been either a main or saver at early prices. Price has gone now and hope you’re on! Slight temperamental doubt but he’s the one with least question marks, good potential to improve. Trouble is although those three have imo the best form (along with Dark Vision if coming back to Goodwood) every one of the others could improve. Bloody good listed race! So personally have kept away.value is everythingMay 23, 2019 at 15:09 #1440232
- Total Posts 305
What’s your value price for Dee Ex Bee now GT with the NR? Noticed he is 5/6 which is a bit short for me.May 23, 2019 at 15:19 #1440234
- Total Posts 1892
If your min price for DXB Ginge was 6/4, i’d have thought 5/6 would be ok given Magic Circle was considered a 4/1 chance or shorter in places?
Hugh Taylor has put up Austrian School + Keals- Mekong!
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 23, 2019 at 17:36 #1440273
- Total Posts 305
Strictly using Betfairs Reduction Factor of 12.7% for MC the new min price for DXB is 2.18
.873 x 2.50 = 2.18
So looks like GT has nicked all the valueMay 23, 2019 at 19:01 #1440344
My 13/8 DXB isn’t quite as good as it sounds, even if 13/8 was almost 6% better than – at that time – my idea of his chance (5/4).
Betfair’s 12.5% under-estimated Magic Circle’s chance and a lot different to bookmakers who imo over-estimated. With most bookies I believe Magic Circle was around 4/1 (a 20p deduction/20% reduction factor). However, my own bet was with Bet365 and they were around 3/1 (25p/25%). If I’ve done my sums right 25% @ 13/8 works out somewhere between 6/5 and 5/4.
tbh I didn’t work out a proper book, but estimated my minimum price to be 6/4, which means my idea of his real chance was (two prices shorter than 6/4) around 5/4 44%.
My idea of Magic Circle’s chance was around 15% and imo Dee Ex Bee deserves around 60% of that 15, 9%. Therefore, imo Dee Ex Bee is no longer value. ie 44 + 9 = 53% = therefore my new idea of his real/fair price is now around 10/11, which means take two prices better… EVENS or better.
…But it won’t matter if he doesn’t win.value is everythingMay 23, 2019 at 19:07 #1440346
- Total Posts 305
Therefore surely a lay a current oddsMay 23, 2019 at 19:33 #1440349
If Dee Ex Bee had been 4/7 when betting opened, Mtoto; then you’re right I’d have laid DXB. However, my prices are obviously about what chance their form suggests each horse has of winning… And although I’ve allowed a bit for the liklihood of improvement – I do believe when a horse shortens significantly it is often because it’s expected to improve a lot! So although my idea of its chance is in theory 10/11 (and wouldn’t back it again if I can’t get Evens or better)… When believing a horse has prospects of progression I vary rarely lay them mid-morning onwards of raceday.value is everything
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.