- This topic has 29 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
JAPAN 5/1
Am still sticking by him there been talk of derby winning drop back in trip for Eclipse so if that happens he not face that horse.And might be with Japan that might bring him on again could be ready to peak in Ireland and Curragh suit him more to.
I backed Anthony Van Dyck and Broome at Epsom and was against Madhmoon, Japan and Sir Dragonet (even a small lay bet on SD). But at current prices on good-firm I’ll be against the Epsom Derby winner here. AVD had the advantage of a full two year old campaign and therefore arguably has far less scope for improvement than the other three. No more than an average Derby winner which probably means whoever wins in Ireland will need to improve. Also, in contrast to the others who made the frame, according to Simon Rowlands sectional analysis went through the race efficiently. Trouble is which English Derby runners will turn up in the Irish version? Will they want to risk getting the average Derby winner beat? And/or will Coolmore rather keep AVD at home in order to have two Derby winners? That said, suppose he’s the most likely Coolmore runner.
Broome went a bit wide and although making a short forward move early in the straight seemingly couldn’t quicken further. imo Least likely to improve; at least not until a greater test of stamina – having soft ground at 1m4f or an increased trip. St Leger! Have Coolmore got anything else for the King Edward?
Similar comments apply to Japan. But where as Broome’s ability at 1m4f may be established; considering Japan’s weakness in the market at both York and here, there’s a possibility of more improvement. So personally I’d expect Japan to run here, but is no given.
Sir Dragonet is lightly raced and looked either unbalanced (has a round action not ideal for Epsom;s undulations and/or firmish ground) or still green (only third ever start) and/or – although stayed the trip – outstayed. Can Magical double up in both Prince Of Wales and Eclipse? Is Magna Grecia ok after a disappointing Irish 2000? Will Magna Grecia go St James’s Palace or Eclipse? I know this is about the Irish Derby, but if Magical and Magna Grecia don’t turn up in the Eclipse Sir Dragonet could do so instead. ie Shows enough speed to come back in trip.
Sir Dragonet and Madhmoon travelled best through the race and made their moves sooner than ideal. Latter also recovering from a stumble. So the same target could be on the agenda for Madhmoon. However, he needs supplementing for Sandown and the Irish Derby is on the veteran trainer’s doorstep. Madhmoon arguably showing most improvement of all Derby runners and could be more progress in him. Soft ground in Ireland might see him at Sandown, but otherwise am sure the trainer would rather win the Irish Derby than Eclipse.
On similar ground to Epsom I’d be keen on Japan and/or Sir Dragonet if running here. But at the moment imo Madhmoon is the most likely to turn up and 8/1 this morning was imo massive! Tipped up on my Daily Lays And Plays thread.
Value Is EverythingDon’t see any reason for the rest of the field to reverse the form with Anthony Van Dyck!
I’d be looking to take avd on myself
Japan and sir dragonet are open to plenty of improvement having seen a track far less
Just depends what turns up
AVD without the run of the race at Epsom and still won with some to spare imo. Versatile and likely to have much easier time of it at The Curragh imo
AVD is twice and in some cases three times (was four times) as short as some of the four he beat at Epsom, JJM. Yet only had 1/2 length/little more than 1/2 length to spare. So Anthony Van Dyck only had 1 lb in hand of four other horses… And although AVD might improve in the Irish Derby, he has had more racing than 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th. 9 races compared to Madhmoon and Japan’s 5, Sir Dragonet’s 3 and Broome’s 8. It is possible to make a case for every one of those four horses to improve/to improve more than Anthony Van Dyck.
Of all the first 5 home at Epsom it is possible AVD has the best chance of winning the Irish version. But what is the evidence he has a much better chance than the four he beat, JJM?
Current prices: 2/1 AVD, 4/1 Sir Dragonet, 5/1 Japan, 5/1 Broome, 6/1 Madhmoon.
Value Is EverythingLooks like AVD & Broome will be Aidan’s main hopes. Of those I’d fancy Broome if only because they’ll be desperate for Australia to get his first G1 winner. Japan definitely won’t be running but no mention of Sir Dragonet (though he did say he’d be running “a couple of others”).
Think it was on ITV (after Japan won the King Ed) they reported Aidan as saying AVD and Broome will go for the Irish Derby, Tonge; with Sir Dragonet having (probably needing) a rest.
Value Is EverythingAidan O’Brien reports he is likely to have 6 runners in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby. Ryan Moore likely to ride Anthony Van Dyck. Broome, Norway, Il Paradiso, Sovereign and Western Australia also likely.
Madhmoon will have his work cut out with the Ballydole battalion!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!AOB has put his cards on the table with those six. AVD does look a shade classier than Broome, although I’d suggest the big sweeping move Broome made in the heat of the race at Epsom was not ideal for his chance and you might be able to rate them a bit closer, especially on a stiffer track.
Telecaster must be considered very doubtful. Not sure what the plans are for Surfman.
Assuming those miss out, Madhmoon really is the only other plausible danger. Simon Rowlands suggested that Madhmoon did kick on a little too soon at Epsom and was worth an upgrade there. Stamina would remain a major concern for him on a stiffer course with the AOB rags sure to serve their purpose in forcing a good pace. Though you’d be harsh to call him a palpable non-stayer at Epsom, it still remains a nagging doubt given his rather mile-y pedigree and smooth way of travelling. A slightly more conservative ride might just narrow the gap, for all the wide expanse of The Curragh could just stretch it back out again.
The big three are 11/8, 3/1 and 7/2 at best prices, which is only 89%. Madhmoon is probably still the one I’d come down on if having a bet, although it’s one of those rubbish situations where you *know* 8/1 was available not long ago. You should definitely still take the new price but it’s hard to get so excited about 3/1 on a (imo) 9/4ish poke when the likes of Ginge are sitting pretty at more than double the price. Still, do Tankerville, Trossachs, Western Australia and Sovereign have an 11% chance between them? Probably not.
(edit after some appalling addition and industry pushouts, maths is hard!)
Thanks GT. Missed that bit about Sir Dragonet (probably fast forwarding for the reasons discussed on another thread!)
It’s a disappointing line up really with more than half the field trained by AOB (and one of the others by Joseph) and (on paper) Madhmoon representing the only serious opposition. Why do people think no British trainers have bothered? It’s not as if there isn’t some decent prize-money, even for the placed horses
Why do people think no British trainers have bothered? It’s not as if there isn’t some decent prize-money, even for the placed horses
Given how the Derby went i suspect the English trainers would be put off coming back to challenge especially in his backyard!
Probably doesn’t help the first 5 home last year were JOB + Aidan’s!?Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Which British contender is there? Telecaster failed to stay/pulled too hard at Epsom. If settling better might have a chance, but given AOB has packed the field with pacemakers and/or stayers… Although Telecaster would’ve had a much better chance than last at Epsom implies, the probability is Telecaster wouldn’t stay in this race either. Best for the horse’s prospects to miss this. The other British horse to go off at single figure odds at Epsom was Bangkok, who ran a lot better in the King Ed, but 4 1/2 lengths behind Japan suggests not up to this. Private Secretary well thought of prior to Ascot but wasn’t up to the job. Doubt Sangarius would stay 1m4f, but maybe Hampton Court second Fox Champion would have a chance? That said, Ascot is too close to the Irish Derby anyway. Surfman is better than shown at either York and French Derby, but would need to be a lot better and probably best to go a little more steadily with him.
tbh The best 3yo middle-distance races are usually between O’Brien and Gosden (Stouteys taking too much time). However, this year the pair thought Gosden’s best male middle distance prospects both missed the gig. Too Darn Hot apparently failed to stay and Dubai Warrior remains on the easy list… Which all leaves the Brits with nothing to challenge here.
Value Is EverythingAnyone live near The Curragh?
Am trying to use the BBC site to predict the weather here. They seem to suggest Kildare has a good chance of rain or at least drizzle tomorrow morning. Is that correct? Does The Curragh have its own micro-climate?Value Is EverythingNot sure about the curragh but from my experience the most accurate/reliable forecast provider for ireland is met eireann
you’d need the app for viewing specific locations
here’s what it’s shown me for the curragh around race time
no m.m’s of rain before that either (from now to racetime), it says
This might seem radical but IMO they got racing too early in the Derby and to some extent the first four slightly fell in a hole in the last hundred yards which allowed AVD to come and win.
I don’t think this will happen today and IMO the fav is very vulnerable and at the price offers no interest to me.
I have backed Broome win at 3/1 because he may have made his move too early and around horses in the Derby and hopefully will have a smoother passage in this.Just as savers I have also had two small interests on Rakan at 20/1 and Norway at 33/1 because I have them both in my ten to follow.
Good Luck Guys
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.