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Defoe at 4/1 for me here now with no kew gardens
Feel the other principals have big questions to answer and he looks the most likely winner if running to the same form as last time
Lah Ti Dar 8/1
Last chance saloon for this filly. Last time was too bad to be true, think she simply hated the track and didn’t go a yard. Stiff 12F & a bit of dig is more her bag and at 8/1 i think she’s too big.
Hard to get away from how impressive Defoe looked at Epsom which was a weak enough Group 1 but a Group 1 nonetheless. Kew Gardens pulled well clear with Defoe of Salouen and it’s hard to think Kew Gardens ran much below his best on that basis. On a line through Kew Gardens’ St Leger form which is his best and probably not far shy of Lah Ti Dar’s best either she’s got a bit to find with Defoe if he runs to that level again. Officially he’s only been given 118 but I think that’s a touch harsh by a couple of pounds. I’m slightly sceptical because he looked a 115ish Group 2 horse at best beforehand but 4/1 generally is plenty big enough to be wrong imo. I will probably save on Lah Ti Dar at that price but she is last chance saloon material for me now.
Anybody’s guess how much ability Masar retains on his first start back it’s one of those where his price could look massive in hindsight but I can’t help but feel if he was flying at home they would have sent him to the Group 1 (POW) rather than here.
Southern France’s price and his participation here generally is a real head-scratcher for me. Looked slow as a boat last season in the Queens Vase which you could put down to him being green still, but even then his runs against Stradivarius last time out and in the St Leger didn’t scream out dropping him back to 12F and he’s got plenty to do on the form book, particularly with Lah Ti Dar from the Leger.
Southern France is a huge beast and was the unfinished article last year so I woukdn’t worry too much about the Lah Ti Dar form- she was more forward. AOB said they would go gently with him for the start of the season and I suppose they didn’t want to subject him to a long hard slog in the Gold Cup on soft against tougher horses.
The reason I ruled out southern France myself is he travels well but finds little or nothing for pressure. He shapes well and you convince yourself he will win next time but he never does.
Masar is coming off a 55 week lay off
Lah ti dar just hasn’t looked the same horse
So that’s why I went for Defoe, but whether he backs up that career best with another run of similar quality is the worry
But at 4/1 that seems a minor worry compared to the others in the race
I like Mirage Dancer, looks a superb specimen on reappearance. Trainer does well in the race and his slow development training style suits the Frankels I think.
Lah Ti Dar is for me the best of this field (including Masar) but hated Epsom. Masar won’t be fit enough for this I suspect anyway.
Lah Ti Dar @ 9/2
Nagano Gold will not finish last here, actually think he has a place chance or perhaps better.
It’s well worth a look at some of his videos – absolutely slaughtered the useful Funny Kid despite being stopped in his run a few times then again unlucky in the run last time. He was not far behind Salouen in a G2 last year – again in spite of Salouen having a cushy lead and Nagano Gold having to pick his way through from an impossible position on a turning track off a slow pace.
He’s a bit like yesterday’s winner Watch Me in that he’s a strong-travelling hold-up type who’ll never be seen to best effect in these silly slowly-run French group races where all the ‘Bozo The Clown’ jocks seem quite happy to sit on the bridle out the back until 2f out, by which point it’s usually too late to reel in the prominent racers.
He’ll get some pace to run at on a stiffer course here and I really fancy his chances. He has a similar style to Defoe and arguably a little more in the way of raw pace and class than that one, for all that he doesn’t have the body of work in group races to prove it. Masar looks a shade toxic (you’d certainly want to play him win-only rather than e/w!) having struggled to lay up with Secret Advisor in a recent public gallop. Southern France is a surprising runner and the rest all have their G2 limitations laid bare already.
I’m quietly optimistic for the Czech raider.
Even without Lah Ti Dar I am really looking forward this race. Masar gleaming on opening show video; Southern France coming to full fitness (and I want to see whether the “getting faster” stable claim is true or a load of rubbish), my selection Mirage Dancer hopefully going to peak this year, Defoe with the recent form, and I’m now interested to see Nagano Gold given LS comments above.
All on nice ground.
The race of the day for me
I’m hoping for a big run from Salouen, and I think that the 9-1 is a fair price. I don’t think he’ll be far away.
I like Defoe for this race, but I like the 9-1 for Salouen as well + he is my selection here.
Want to be against Masar at that price. As TheTinMan says, if in A1 condition he’d surely have gone POW?
Defoe won the Corry Cup, but that looked a Group 1 in name only and pace had the race set up for him. Full pelt in last before staying on. Will need similar today and that’ll all depend on whether Communique and Saloen learn from Epsom. Not sure Defoe even had to improve there – under-estimated going in to that race but not here. Conditions continue to firm up too, good-firm may be against Defoe at 1m4f.
Southern France obviously stays well, but travelled very well against Stradivarius last time; as if a return to 1m4f will be ok. Also less miles on the clock/much more chance of improving than some of these. Am a bit concerned of a slow pace, but I expect him to be ridden fairly close to the pace at this trip. 9/2 worth taking, imo is a fair 11/4 chance.
Mirage Dancer is imo the other horse that could improve. As Green’ says, he’s a good looking sort. Type Stoutey improves year on year. The Group 1 winners in this field haven’t shown outstanding form and Mirage Dancer – a good Group 2 horse – doesn’t need to progress much further to be right with them.
Morando beat a below form Kew Gardens a long way at Chester, had excuses at Epsom but must be a big doubt he’ll be as effective on this ground.
Communique disappointed me at Epsom, thought he was progressing; but the Newmarket win probably went ideally – able to dictate. Possibly could do the same if Saloen does not take him on… But overall the latter is the most likely prominent runner to take advantage if they go slow.
Nagano Gold won a French listed race and 3rd in a Group 3. Normally a Czech horse would be under-estimated but he still needs around 10 lbs improvement to make in order to challenge. Not impossible but unlikely… And he’s yet another hold up horse.
Masar and Defoe being Group 1 winners has imo exaggerated their chance.
Have backed Southern France, Mirage Dancer with a saver – just in case they go slow – on Saloen.Value Is Everything
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