KevMcAlley

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  • in reply to: Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle 2019 #1398330
    KevMcAlley
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    Montestrel was terrible today. They’d have wanted to see more than that i’d have thought.
    I cashed out, if he turns up on the day i would maybe go back in at much bigger prices.

    Gardens Of Babylon would be too high in the handicap for this i’d have thought, will take on SE in the Triumph. They’ve Fine Brunello and Konitho for this.

    I had a look through the market for this last night and came down on Surin being big at 14s.
    Good form with Gardens Of Babylon and will have around 135-6 in this which looks more than fair to me and a strong pace looks perfect for her.

    in reply to: Best Odds Guarenteed #1398272
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    Don’t think there’s a ‘peak’ price available, notes on a race will give you what the horse opened at and the SP.

    in reply to: Ascot Chase #1398263
    KevMcAlley
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    Winning championship races and being unbeaten doesn’t come into ratings, the pure form does. Special Tiara won a below average QMCC, he shouldn’t have been rated close to Altior last year just because it was the same race as the form was at a different level.

    Altior gave a 155 horse a 19L beating giving him 3lbs – Cyrname gave a 165 horse a 17L beating off levels.
    Two lengths difference, but 10lbs ratings swing with those in behind give you around 2-4lbs in advantage of Cyrname. Give Altior the 3lb difference and they’re level say.
    Cyrname broke the track record and the form of those in behind is more solid than that of Diego Du Charmil, hence giving Cyrname a bigger rating.

    OR tell you that WP & FN ran around about their OR difference of 4lbs, the handicapper has thought they’ve both run about 5lbs below their best OR and Politologue slightly more in fourth.

    Filling the frame etc. wasn’t given as Cyrname’s improvement. watch the interview Nicholls did with RTV or the explanation Harry Derham gives on the FFP pod (not listened to it myself yet but read it’s very good).

    Glen Forsa ran an average time on the clock and Kalashnikov was extremely slow over his fences and his jockey gave up trying the last half mile of the race, running well below his best OR. They dropped Kalashnikov to allow for the rating GF got and they now think the best Kalashnikov can produce at present is 148.

    The system is perfectly fair to my eyes – perhaps inflated with the phil smith regime (juveniles especially) and lenient to those in the 150-160s.

    To be clear Ham i’m 100% agreeing Altior is the better horse, he just hasn’t proved it on form yet.

    in reply to: 2019 Kim Muir #1398253
    KevMcAlley
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    Glenloe is missing Cheltenham GE confirmed this morning at the media day, thankfully was able to get my dough back and a wee profit on top.

    in reply to: Ultima 2019 #1398248
    KevMcAlley
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    Any Second Now 16/1 NRNB.

    Stayed on well in the Ten Up at the weekend over 3M, think he will go here and show up well off a good mark around 145. Also ran well into 5th in the PP when he was punted heavily, making a couple of mistakes including a bad one at the last. Might be the next Squouateur but at 16s he’s more than big enough to find out.

    in reply to: Ascot Chase #1398245
    KevMcAlley
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    Cyrname smashed up horses who on the figures and lines of form in behind looked to run their race.

    The time was a COURSE RECORD, backing up what a brilliant performance it was.

    It was an elite performance, regardless of whether you think it was a one-off they have to rate him on that performance (aided by his demolition the time before). If he goes and gets beat next time at Punchestown then he will be reduced to below Altior. BDM & Native River were both rated above Altior at one stage and have since been reduced to just below him.

    Altior has never broken track records or beaten a 165 rated field 19L basically on the snaff. That’s in part due to his racing style and half due to opportunity, which he hasn’t had. He’s my favourite horse in training and probably ever, but i don’t disagree with Cyrname being rated higher as he’s done it. Altior hasn’t pushed his level to a OR of 180 yet, and the handicapper can’t put him on that level on the potential which most agree is definitely there.

    Cyrname hasn’t just improved out of nowhere, Paul has explained in brilliant detail why he’s now blossoming.

    End of the day, who really cares? They’re never going to run in handicaps and the prestige of NH ratings is nowhere near as important as it is for the stallions on the flat.

    in reply to: OLGB Mares Hurdle 2019 #1397937
    KevMcAlley
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    Just backed Roksana myself Raymo at 16s NRNB.

    Skelton released news that she’s coming here and that she’s going to improve a good bit for the step up in trip and fitness.

    in reply to: Albert Bartlett 2019 #1397903
    KevMcAlley
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    Yep i’ve cashed out for a small loss on Kateson also, very disappointing on Saturday.

    Hendo confirmed this morning both Birchdale & Dickie Diver run here.

    in reply to: RTV vs SSR #1397899
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    in reply to: 2019 Pertemps Network Final #1397897
    KevMcAlley
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    Wednesdays race at Punchestown the last qualifier in Ireland, will be very informative, last years winner came from it.

    in reply to: JLT Novices Chase 2019 #1397896
    KevMcAlley
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    Glen Forsa looks perfect for this to me, took 10s NRNB after Fridays run.

    They’re swaying towards the Arkle but i’d be coming here every day of the week.

    in reply to: Ascot Chase #1397894
    KevMcAlley
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    He looks a right tool now they’ve managed to train him with the rest of his string. Hood taken off has helped wonders also. Rest looked to run their race to me, he was just in another parish.

    What i would like to see is if what he’d be like with something hassling him up front. I would expect Willie or Gordon to adopt this in the Punchestown GC, but he might just be too quick to lay up with.

    The best thing is that this could be the beast that shows how good Altior really is if they meet over 20F :yahoo:

    in reply to: 2000 Guineas 2019 #1397882
    KevMcAlley
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    Calyx is cantering away Hein but that’s about the only info i can get at the moment. As a Guineas backer i’d like some more info also, especially now they’ve released a target for TDH.

    KevMcAlley
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    PFN is the best trainer in the game, it’s a shame his agent isn’t.

    NH is so much better with Paul thriving. Open with the media, no Betfair drifts and campaigns his horses often and even does the crazy thing of running them against each other. Imagine that, WPM & NJH.

    Jasolong, if the horses had been given jabs in the last week they wouldn’t have been running at the weekend as they need 6 days clearance etc.

    in reply to: 2019 Gold Cup #1397482
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    He might go to the Bobby Jo next week, which to me would make more sense than shorter this weekend.

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