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moehat.
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- February 15, 2022 at 17:40 #1583286
Have I missed something? is the National a charity race to ensure O’Leary gets a winner or something?
What a pathetic cry-baby, just completely ignoring the fact that Tiger Roll p!ssed up at Cheltenham less than a year ago.
February 15, 2022 at 17:50 #1583288Re the entry conditions, Samcro has until 22 March to meet them. Time To Get Up has not been allotted a weight as he fails the running in six chases rule which needed to have been met by 13 February at the latest. Quite why the two dates are different is anyone’s guess.
This year’s entry conditions are reproduced below:
RACE CONDITIONS £1,000,000 guaranteed For 7yo+ which, prior to March 22nd, have started in a chase during the current season, and have been placed first, second, third or fourth in a chase with an official distance description of ‘two miles seven and a half furlongs’ or more, at any time during the horse’s career. Horses must be also allotted a rating of 125 or more by the BHA Handicapper following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including February 13th. Horses which are not qualified for a rating in Great Britain or Ireland at closing may also be entered. Such horses may be eligible for a weight providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse’s racecourse performances up to and including February 13th would merit a minimum rating of 125. To qualify, horses must have run at least six times in chases run under the Rules of Racing of a Recognised Racing Authority up to and including February 13th. At the Handicapper’s discretion, such horses may be allotted a rating.
February 15, 2022 at 17:56 #1583292Weights have always been mid-Feb Quelle.
February 15, 2022 at 18:06 #1583296I’ve always assumed the early entries and the big fanfare about the weights is to build up publicity and a “narrative” in the lead-up to the race. It can lead to some strange outcomes, but I like the long build-up.
In addition to the non-qualification of Time To Get Up, it seems that Brace Yourself, Double Shuffle and The Big Dog are all down as non-runners already.
February 15, 2022 at 18:27 #1583301Just read O’Leary’s comments about Tiger Roll.
What weight did he seriously think the horse was going to get, after having won two Grand Nationals and hacking up at Cheltenham last year?
The sooner this narcissistic attention seeker gets out of the game the better.
February 15, 2022 at 18:52 #1583308I was out and about this afternoon and got a text alert that O’Leary was fuming again about Tiger Roll’s weight.
I assumed that he’d been handed 11-9 or 11-8. You know, something befitting a dual Grand National winner who won a race at the Cheltenham Festival by 18 lengths less than a year ago.
Now I’ve seen the weights and it’s confirmed the long-held impression that the owner is a weapons-grade, 12-out-of-ten idiot.
What weight would have satisfied him? 11-0? 10-10?
And if he’d been allotted 10-10, and then won with his head in his chest, how crazy would that have looked?
It’s pathetic. I can’t think of another owner who would have behaved so ridiculously and made himself look such an utter fool as he has the last two years.February 15, 2022 at 18:58 #1583311I don’t care much for the O’Learys but hes correct about Tiger Rolls rating. He did hack up at Cheltenham last year but Easysland ran miles below what he’d shown the year before when thrashing Tiger Roll and the rest of the race is garbage. The rest of his form since that vintage 2019 season is not great albeit he’s been dubiously campaigned. There is no chance hes a better horse at 12 than he was at 9 and to win this he’ll hsve to be. Saying all that if he was mine I’d give him the chance, all this welfare stuff is nonsense and a smokescreen.
February 15, 2022 at 19:06 #1583315Probably not a popular opinion here, but I actually agree with the owner in this instance.
The horse was rated 159 when he last won the National, as a nine year old. Now three years older (so definitely in the veteran stage) and with a very patchy record since that success, how on Earth can the horse be rated two pounds higher?
February 15, 2022 at 19:09 #1583319But horses are given a higher handicap rating to enable them to get into the race if they have good form at Aintree don’t they? And horses have always gone up weights wise much quicker than they’ve come down. You can’t have it both ways.
February 15, 2022 at 19:15 #1583324Can anybody find any other example of a 12yo who has only had one win in the last three years- and that in a bloody cross country race- whose handicap mark is higher than it was three years previously?
February 15, 2022 at 19:27 #1583327I was just looking at what the BHA might be assessing him on and surely the only recent evidence is Cheltenham. They had him performing to 167 apparently but that also relies on Alpha Des Obeaux apparently running to 144 when he’s very regressive and rated about 120 in Ireland now.
February 15, 2022 at 19:49 #1583334They are presumably assessing him on his course form as well as his Festival form. He might not have an obvious winning chance with that weight, but then the handicapper should just be aiming to give him a level chance of winning compared to everyone else. I think that has been achieved.
I actually agree there is some debate to be had about whether it’s a fair weight. But it’s O’Leary’s usual bully-boy reaction and his straw man argument about horse welfare that I can’t stand. I’m not saying O’Leary is unconcerned about Tiger Roll’s wellbeing, but the horse’s handicap mark is not a welfare issue.
February 15, 2022 at 21:13 #1583342Have to agree with O’Leary this time around….can’t believe I just typed those words – you can’t just cherry pick one winning run (the form of which is questionable at best) to handicap him out of his last nine runs, which have yielded the following results:
16 Feb 20: 5th of 8 beaten 14L
11 Mar 20: 2nd of 14 beaten 17L
22 Oct 20: 6th of 9 beaten 29L
13 Nov 20: P/U
21 Feb 21: 6th of 6th beaten 65L
17 Mar 21: 1st of 13 won by 18L
08 Apr 21: 4th of 9 beaten 92L
04 Dec 21: P/U
22 Jan 22: 14th of 17 beaten 31LHe quite clearly is nowhere near the force he once was and with the top two in the weights most likely coming out anyway, his alloted weight (11st 4lbs) will only go up higher – one could argue that a mid 150 rating would be overly generous on the overall balance of his runs since his 2nd National win (shown above), which outside of those 2 Cheltenham runs (runner up and winner) have been pretty abysmal.
That being said they should consider themselves lucky that the handicapper didn’t treat him like they did Rummy back in the day who went from carrying 10st 5lbs for his 1st National win to 12st for his second win, then he remained on 12st for his first runners up place, dropped to 11st 10lbs for his second runners up spot and then to 11st 8lbs for his third win (as a 12 yr old).
Another reason why the two should never be mentioned in the same breath.
February 15, 2022 at 21:21 #1583343It is hardly the handicapper’s fault if the top weights are withdrawn and the weights go up.
One of the top weights is owned by O’Leary anyway.
O’Leary is being even more ridiculous than usual if he seriously thought the handicapper was going to give Tiger Roll less than 11 stone.
February 15, 2022 at 21:36 #1583344Fiddlerontheroof is only 5lb higher than when running a stormer in the Ladbroke Trophy, finishing a country mile in front of the third.
Does anyone know if he’s definitely being trained for the race please as, if he is, 25/1 is fair and he won’t be that on the day.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"February 15, 2022 at 21:43 #1583345Joe Tizzard on Fiddlerontheroof…
“This has been the plan for Fiddlerontheroof since the Ladbrokes Trophy where he had a hard enough race. It was going to be too soon to go for a King George, then we talked about it and we thought he could have a live chance in a Grand National.
“We waited until the weights came out before we decided to run him again. We will run him at Ascot on Saturday in the three mile-handicap chase.
“I’m sure off 155 he would be competitive and he is a lovely jumper.”
February 15, 2022 at 22:04 #1583346Thanks, Tom.
He won’t be 25/1 if he wins at Ascot on Saturday, that’s for sure.
I think the Tizzards have been protecting his mark since Newbury and I don’t blame them. A 5lb rise given the rest were beaten out of sight looks lenient to me.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care" - AuthorPosts
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