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These late price movements are a fact of life and they often seem to be revealing. However, I read somewhere that Betfair did a study once of steamers and drifters and concluded that the steamers didn’t do any better than the drifters at starting prices. (Obviously if you know what’s going to steam, then you will make money, but blindly backing the thing that shortened most prior to the start isn’t a winning strategy.)
The thing I find strange though is why the moves come so late. If, for example, you know at 10am you’re onto a good thing surely you would plonk your money down then rather than risk other people front running you.
Thanks Imperial for that info. The only thing that worries me now is that the Cheltenham race has been won by some quite high odds contenders in recent years so it seems form isn’t always a reliable predictor of who will win.
Best to continue this discussion on the Cheltenham pages I think now if anyone wants to carry on.
I notice the top 4 in the market are all odds against for a place on Betfair. You could try backing all 4 for a place. You would come out ahead if 2 placed, and well ahead if you got all 3 places. Why bet on one good thing when you can have all four?
I have just been looking at the odds for the Champion Hurdle. The best deal on Fly with a bookmaker is 9/2 with 4 places e/w (S James). However, exchange prices are better (5.8 win and 2.5 three places). Perhaps surprisingly, all the 4 main contenders are odds against for a place.
You are beginning to convince me now that the Fly is a good thing. I still find it a bit odd though that he hasn’t gone head to head recently with any of the main English contenders. Are there any speed figures we can use to verify his comparative ability? I know it’s difficult with different tracks, pace, going etc but I would like to see he has got a course record or at least some fast times under his belt in the last 12 months.
I am still not convinced by H Fly at the current odds. I don’t see any reason to convince me he is better than any of Binocular, Peddlers, Overturn or Menorah. In addition it is conceivable that Mille Chief, Dunguib, Starluck or Khyber Kim might be better than H Fly. On top of that he is Irish so will have the overseas trip to Cheltenham to make, which is a slight disadvantage.
H. Fly seems a bit injury prone to me. Apparently he cut his leg recently and he had injury problems before that. Quite a dangerous ante post bet I would say. Also his form is hard to determine because Solwhit is not very good. But maybe worth a go on the S James special each way 4 place offer if it is still going.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/8264974/Long-Run-benefited-from-a-head-start-to-win-King-George-VI-Chase-at-Kempton.html
It seems Long Run had some expert medical attention prior to the race. Could this be an explanation for the Henderson stable’s run of form.
I have never subscribed to Timeform. From what I have read, in the preinternet age, the Timeform black book was essential reading for form students, and I have always regarded it as having some sort of mystical quality based on superior race analysis. However, I noticed Betfair released more detailed Timeform commentary for the King George. It was interesting but didn’t tell me anything not already in the public domain.
Maybe subscribers get something extra, but I guess, as a lot of Timeform stuff seems to be free, it is no longer as valuable as it once was in providing an edge over the average punter. And finding out that Kauto has been downgraded from 190 to 165+ is not earth-shattering.
Can I live a full life without subscribing? Perhaps I will never know if I don’t subscribe.I notice Ginger seems to find it useful so maybe I am missing out.
Is Somersby a definite runner? I think I read somewhere it depends on the ground whether he runs in this or something else.
Does Nicholls lay them out in such a cynical fashion? I had the impression he’s very straight. Maybe the horse has picked up the Kauto infection. However, I guess it doesn’t matter what the cause of the disappointing run is, as it will put him on a reasonable mark for the race.
It’s interesting that the betting shop continues to evolve.I have seen one in Welwyn Garden City that offers a choice of their odds or Ladbrokes odds and I have seen a few Better Bet shops in London on prime sites which have nice facilities and give away tea and chocolate bars. I don’t see how the Better Bet shops can make a profit though.
It looks like Leopardstown might be frosted over on Sunday, in which case it’s conceivable (but unlikely) that Peddlers Cross and Dunguib might turn up for the postponed meeting.
I had no trouble getting £3 on 32 on the machine for Ronaldo. This might suggest he’s a doubtful runner.
Having said that, not everyone on Betfair is very sharp. I have been able to lay small amounts of Dunguib more than 24 hours after he was announced as a non-runner in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
There are doubts about all the main contenders for the Gold Cup, but Long Run is the only one with youth on his side so I think 7 or 8-1 on Long Run is good value.
It seems like to date there is not enough statistical evidence to conclude Ditcheat is definitely out of form. However, following news of Kauto’s infection, I would imagine a frantic round of blood testing will be carried out on all the Nicholls runners in the next few days. I think it would be foolish to put a penny on Master Minded ante post at short odds because there is an obvious risk of his being pulled out suddenly on the basis of tests, like Dunguib was for the Irish Champion Hurdle.
