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Surely 3 miles on heavy ground at Leopardstown is the equivalent of 3 and a bit on good to soft at Cheltenham. Why wouldn’t Kempes get the Gold Cup trip?
I find it a bit strange that Riverside is running in this one. His main target appears to be the Ryanair but this is his second consecutive 3 mile race. However, he did well at Kempton and I imagine if he wins this comfortably he might be switched to the Gold Cup. He might be worth a punt for the GC at long odds on Betfair.
On the other hand perhaps 3 miles elsewhere is the equivalent of 2.5 miles at Cheltenham.
I find this race quite tricky . WA Friend is really unfathomable. I recall he was hyped up as good value for the Gold Cup on the basis that he has grade 1 form and would do even better after a breathing op. Then he flopped in the Betfair Chase behind IC and this was blamed on the ground. Since then we have heard surprisingly little from the usually loquacious Mr Nicholls. I think the way to play WAF might be to short him for the win here and go long for the Gold Cup. I reckon if he reaches his theoretical potential and shows it in this race he could come in to say 15-1 for the Gold Cup.
I see Ronaldo is a confirmed runner – but it’s frustrating his odds haven’t come down. 25-32 on Betfair. A good deal I would say.
Yes- put them up – it would be interesting just to see them. I followed your Grands Crus recommendation early on and am looking for more ideas.
I have changed my mind on this. The weather has taken a turn for the worse so I think the soft ground runners will be favoured. Joncol should be favourite but I guess it is possible Pride of Dulcote could act on soft as well.
There is some fascinating analysis of this race from 5LD on the duplicate thread, which I recommend, but I am adding my thoughts now on the going. I see it as a seven horse race, nothwithstanding Nulty’s recommendation of Let Youself Go (available at 80 on Betfair). Of these seven horses, four definitely prefer soft ground: MoneyTrix, Joncol, the Listener and Cooldine. Kempes prefers good and China Rock and Pride of Dulcote act on most ground.
Now it looks like there will be a bit of rain, but maybe not a lot before the race. So I don’t think conditions will favour the soft ground runners. Hence Kempes is the selection as he is better than China Rock, and Pride of Dulcote is not sufficiently exposed for us to know if he is justified as favourite.
Of course, if the weather forecast changes I will change my mind.
I always wondered why the odds were so similar across firms. Now we know it’s because they all use the same odds compiler!
The other thing though is that about 5 minutes before each race all the online odds seem to move in unison. I guess there is some sort of oncourse price feed all the firms are using but I don’t know what it is. Can anyone enlighten me?
I confess I am rather bemused by the HF fan club. He is obviously a good horse but because he hasn’t raced against the other main contenders it’s very hard to tell how well he will do in this race, so I don’t see why they are so confident.
Perhaps the best strategy is to back him for a win and lay him for a place on the basis that he could be well below or well above the standard of the others.
Will the choice of jockey give an indication of whether Mr Mullins prefers Kempes or Cooldine?
I like trends and related stats like impact values. I think they give pretty clear indications for some races. e.g I think it was reasonable to assume the most likely horses to win the Hennessy at Newbury were the younger ones on the basis that they tended to do well in the past and they were more likely to have improved beyond their handicap marks.
Flatstats does a lot of work on this stuff and it looks quite useful.
The problem is that the well-known factors are usually already taken into account by the market.
I am fascinated by the question of age though. I agree that the market might not fully account for it. However, I have found it very difficult to unearth hard data in this area. I am sure it would not be difficult to do a statistical analysis and the fact that there doesn’t seem to be one in the public domain suggests it is valuable.
Perhaps Corm could share his analysis with us.Fist,
I think you’re always going to see small money on the exchanges antepost. This is because punters can’t risk leaving big lumps up for grabs in case something happens like a sudden withdrawal. I sometimes bet a few hundred on a horse ante post but I do it by leaving small amounts at the bid or offer in increments of 2 to 5 pounds. This means I usually get better prices, but occasionally get picked off by insiders for a small amount.
Hurricane Fly turnover to date is over £100,000, which is not tiny.
Grands Crus’ time in the Cleeve wasn’t anything special and was much slower than BB’s last year on apparently similar ground. I think on best form shown so far I would prefer BB. The market looks about right to me with BB on 2.0 and GC on 3.6.
But who will come third? There could be some each-way possibilities. Mourad seems to be third fav but his win odds look a bit cramped to me. So it’s beginning to look like a no-bet race to me at current prices.
I notice Binocular has drifted slightly as well from 4.5 to 5.0 , which is odd as you would think he would be a beneficiary of Fly’s drift. Perhaps people are beginning to think the race is open to other winners apart from the big 4. Mille Chief, Dunguib, Oscar and Overturn must have some of chance. The recent record of favourites in this race has been quite poor and Bini was himself only a 9-1 shot last year.
I would quite like to see some of these horses race before the Championship. Peddlers Cross v Binocular would be interesting and I don’t think would detract much from the real thing as they have already met this season.
