[kasparov]

Thanks AP. £100 then is worth over £8000 now on an RPI basis, but much more if you consider it relative to the UK economy at that time, so prize money was quite good. Especially so as it appears the spectators got in for nothing.

[kasparov]

I bet mostly on arbs, usually each way on 17 runner handicaps, sometimes cross-sport each way doubles. But I do a bit of straight win ante post as well – see my tips for Cheltenham 2015. I also usually do the tote trifecta rollover and occasionally the jackpot.

I find jump racing a bit difficult – smaller fields, chasing a bit random and harder to get an edge. But Irish handicap hurdles sometimes seem fairly straightforward as usually they have a lot of no-hopers.

[kasparov]

Thanks Ginge for the thread. I confess I had come to rely on it for a modest irregular income. But maybe it is time to finish. You’ve done enough to prove you can cut it, and with bookmaker restrictions it was becoming something of an academic exercise.

[kasparov]

The source is the onemilefourandten blog

The source of the data is Raceform Interactive (RFI) with the analysis carried out in the R statistical environment. Flat and NH races are considered separately. Races in GB and Ireland only since 2007 up to mid-January 2014 are considered. Each time a horse runs its Racing Post Rating (RPR) is compared with the maximum RPR the horse has achieved up to and including race date. The difference between the two numbers is defined as the RPR relative (RPRrel). The maximum value RPR can achieve is zero. Following Timeform’s definition, if a horse runs within 5lb of its maximum rating it is considered to have Run To Form (RTF). Horses are classified as having either high or low consistency according to the percentage of times a horse has RTF relative to a cut-off of 50%. The choice of 50% is arbitrary. No allowance is made for the number of times a horse runs, or its age in assigning a consistency classification, even though the older/more often a horse runs the more likely it is to run more than 5lb below its previous best. Races are classified as either handicaps, pattern races or other. For Flat races the analysis is restricted to horses aged 4 and above. The reason for this is to reduce the influence on the analysis of the return to racing after a long break of unexposed, previously immature horses. For similar reasons in NH races the analysis is restricted to horses aged 5 and above. Days off between races are classified into the following 6 buckets: up to 10 days, 10 to 29 days, 30 to 59 days (1m to 2m), 60 to 179 days (3m to 6m), 180 to 364 days (6m to 1y) and 365 to 730 days (1y to 2y).

There are several tables on the website. Average is 19.6 lb.

[kasparov]

Some evidence below from the onemilefourandten blog

Introduction

The recent criticism by Luca Cumani of two of Jamie Spencer’s rides this year on Mount Athos by Luca Cumani ( “it’s on record that he was given two very bad rides” has caused a good deal of comment and publicity. Simon Holt devotes his column in the Racing Post Weekender this week (25th September edition) to a discussion of Jamie Spencer’s riding style, concluding that “this is a jockey with a bit of star quality and his career record provides impressive defence against the critics”. As Simon Holt points out, the hold up style he adopts can lend itself to criticism if a horse is perceived as being delivered too late, such as his recent ride on York Glory in the 2013 renewal of the Beverley Bullet. However much of the criticism leveled appears to be founded on one or two rides, rather than by considering his performance over many rides. In this blog post all of Jamie Spencer’s rides in the 2013 flat season (to 25th September) were examined in terms of riding style, Impact Values and ratings. The rides of a number of other jockeys (Ryan Moore, Richard Hughes, James Doyle and Joe Fanning) were also examined. With each of these jockeys having ridden over 400 rides each this season to date, there is plenty of data to interrogate.

Definition of Running Style/Early Pace Position

The analysis that underpins this piece was carried out in the R statistical environment accessing Raceform Interactive (RFI) data. This is the same data used by the Racing Post. In running comments were used to identify the Early Pace Position (EPP) adopted by each horse in each race contained within the database. In this blog post the terms EPP and ‘running style’ are used interchangeably. Five categories of running style were defined: leading(1), prominent (2), midfield (3), held up (4) and in rear (5). Armed with an EPP by horse by race, the most frequently adopted running style by each horse can be identified. These EPPs can be used in conjunction with the remainder of the information contained within the RFI database to examine the relationship between running style and jockey performance. Horses had to have run at least 3 times for an EPP to be assigned to the horse, so if for example, Orfevre ran three times, twice in the lead (style 1) and once prominently (style 2), he’d be assigned an EPP of 1. After this parsing exercise we have the running style adopted by each horse in each race that it took part, and the running style each horse has adopted most frequently in the past.

Jockey Rides, Horse Ability and Starting Prices

To help put Jamie Spencer’s riding style in context the following jockeys were chosen for comparison: Ryan Moore, Richard Hughes, James Doyle and Joe Fanning. The first two are vying for champion jockey in 2013, James Doyle has recently been appointed Prince Khalid Abdullah’s jockey, whilst Joe Fanning is known for adopting front running tactics and should provide a contrast with the riding style adopted by Jamie Spencer. Table 1 gives information about the ability of horses ridden (using the median rating across all rides ) by each jockey and betting market expectations using average and median Starting Prices (SPs). All rides in the 2013 flat season were considered. Ryan Moore rides horses with the most ability, posting a median RPR of 81, followed by Jamie Spencer , Richard Hughes, James Doyle and then Joe Fanning. Note that the SPs for Ryan Moore and Richard Hughes’s rides are close, suggesting the betting markets typically rate their chances similarly. Jamie Spencer comes next in terms of market expectations, with James Doyle last after Joe Fanning, even though, on average, he rides more highly rated horses.

Jockey Median Rating of Rides Average SP Median SP
J Fanning 69 10.4 7.0
R Hughes 76 5.7 4.0
J Doyle 73 12.7 7.5
J Spencer 78 8.7 6.0
R Moore 81 5.5 4.0
Table 1: Median ratings of rides and SP information for selected jockeys

Early Pace Position Profiles

The proportion of horses in each EPP category is given in Table 2, along with wins per category and associated Impact Values (IVs). Impact Value has its usual definition. The IV for front runners is 1.88. As is widely known front runners win more frequently than other running styles. IVs for EPP styles 2 (prominent) and 3 (mid-division) are similar at 0.94 and 0.99 respectively, with hold up horses performing somewhat worse at 0.83 and horses that race in rear reporting the lowest IV of 0.60. The IVs reported here by riding style suggest that the most important decision a jockey can take is whether to front run or not. After that, racing prominently or in mid division has similar outcomes, whilst being held up or in rear suggests that the further back you race from a midfield position, the less likely it is that you will win races. There is an important caveat here – the EPP adopted it is not entirely in the jockeys hands, but conditioned on a number of factors, only some of which are in his control. However we do know that on average horses do appear to have a favoured EPP, and this is useful for some of the analysis that follows.

EPP wins runs proportion IV
1 963 4466 12% 1.88
2 408 3787 10% 0.94
3 1714 15097 39% 0.99
4 814 8550 22% 0.83
5 479 6329 17% 0.66
TOTAL 4378 38229 100% 1.00
Table 2: EPP running styles, proportions and Impact Values

Jockey Riding Styles

Perceptions are borne out by the data – Jamie Spencer rides far fewer horses in mid-division than other jockeys, preferring to hold them up or ride them in rear. Table 3 takes every ride of each jockey and amalgamates by EPP. The differences in EPP adopted by Jamie Spencer are substantial compared with the other jockeys in the table. Note that he rides as least as many front runners and prominent horses as Ryan Moore and James Doyle, it is the mid-division category that he eschews, with more than half of his rides categorised as either held up or in rear.

Jockey EPP1 EPP2 EPP3 EPP4 EPP5
J Fanning 19% 13% 43% 16% 9%
R Hughes 17% 7% 35% 20% 21%
J Doyle 10% 6% 37% 29% 19%
J Spencer 13% 5% 25% 27% 31%
R Moore 10% 8% 40% 23% 20%
Table 3: Riding styles adopted by jockey

Does this result hold when checked against the most frequent riding style of the horses ridden by our jockeys? Table 4 shows there is some evidence that Jamie Spencer tends to ride more horse that have a hold up running style. However, this could have been caused by the fact that he might be the only jockey to have sat on the horse and thus contributed to its running style. This makes interpretation more difficult. On balance, however, comparing the riding proportions in tables 4 and 5 shows that Jamie Spencer does appear to ride his mounts with more restraint than is usually the case.

Jockey EPP1 EPP2 EPP3 EPP4 EPP5
J Fanning 11% 15% 33% 20% 21%
R Hughes 6% 13% 31% 29% 22%
J Doyle 4% 10% 29% 32% 25%
J Spencer 4% 8% 31% 30% 27%
R Moore 6% 10% 33% 30% 20%
Table 4: Riding styles by horse

Relationship between Running Style (EPP) and Ratings Achieved

A measure that compares the rating of each run relative to the maximum rating the horse has achieved is defined as the Relative to Maximum – RTM. Table 5 below shows average RTM by running style style. On average horses run ca. 18lb below their maximum rating. This is no surprise – ratings are negatively skewed – bounded on the upside by ability and the relatively rare confluence of a set of circumstances that allows a horse to achieve its maximum rating, and exposed to substantial downside as any number of events (going, draw, pace, opposition, trip and so on) cause horses to run below their best. Horses with a prominent running style (EPP 2) are most likely to perform below their best. Remember from table 2 horses that race prominently deliver lower IVs than those that race in mid-division. It is possible that the pressure of racing prominently conspires against these horses. The best RTM numbers reported are for horses that are held up or ridden in rear. Given the IVs for these categories are substantially lower than 1, a likely explanation for them running more closely to their maximum rating is that they are running on past beaten horses to be placed rather than winning. This has implications for their handicap ratings relative to their ability. In tables 4 and 5 we have IVs and RTM values by running style classification for all races that took place on the flat in 2013. These tables give us a sense of how often horses win given the their riding style, and to what degree they run close to their maximum form. Now we turn to the same information at the individual jockey level.

Early Pace Position (EPP) Rating To Maximum (RTM) – average
1 -18.4
2 -19.0
3 -17.9
4 -17.7
5 -17.0
Table 5: RTM by EPP style category

Jockey Performance: Impact Values & RTM Ratings

Two approaches to measuring jockey ability are those used by John Whitley, often mentioned by James Willoughby on Racing UK, and Timeform. In this blog post two measures already employed, Impact Values (IVs) and Run To Maximum (RTM) , are calculated at the jockey level. Impact Values by jockey by running style are reported in Table 6 below, RTMs by running style are reported in table 7. Ryan Moore performs the best across both measures. On average his rides perform about 8lb better than average (-8lb vs -18lb) and ca. 3lb better than the other jockeys considered here. Particularly noteworthy is his performance on front runners, where he performs nearly 10lb better than average, with an IV of 3.9. Joe Fanning performs best when he rides front runners. Richard Hughes, James Doyle and Jamie Spencer perform similarly to each other based upon RTMs – about 5lb better than average, but ca. 3lb behind Ryan Moore. If Starting Prices and horse ability are considered, James Doyle performs particularly well. Perhaps the betting market has underestimated his abilities – if so, his recent appointment by Prince Khalid Abdullah and the likely increase in the quality of his mounts is likely to change this.

Turning to Jamie Spencer: he performs best on front running rides, delivering similar IVs to Richard Hughes and yet performing 2.5lb better on average. What of his hold up rides? Considering horse that are held up or ridden in rear (EPP 4 and 5) , Jamie Spencer’s rides perform second only to Ryan Moore in terms of RTM. Yet the IVs for both of these categories are the second lowest of the jockeys considered here. There are a couple of interpretations. The first is that hold up horses are running into places, achieving respectable ratings and yet not winning. The second is that the horses are being ridden in a style that maximises their chances of running close to their maximum ratings, and the IVs will, over many more rides, reflect this.

Jockey EPP1 EPP2 EPP3 EPP4 EPP5
J Fanning 2.52 1.41 1.13 0.39 0.93
R Hughes 2.76 2.25 2.04 1.65 1.75
J Doyle 1.35 1.14 0.97 1.69 1.79
J Spencer 2.73 2.24 1.69 1.21 1.05
R Moore 3.90 1.74 2.21 1.34 2.07
Table 6: Impact Values by jockey by EPP classification

Table 7 below shows RTM averages by jockey by EPP category. A discussion of IVs and RTM by jockey follows table 7.

Jockey EPP1 EPP2 EPP3 EPP4 EPP5
J Fanning -15.3 -20.4 -17.8 -16.4 -15.5
R Hughes -13.5 -11.8 -12.9 -13.0 -12.9
J Doyle -12.6 -15.1 -11.7 -13.1 -13.9
J Spencer -11.0 -14.7 -13.3 -11.6 -12.6
R Moore -8.5 -10.2 -9.8 -9.4 -10.0
Table 7: RTM by jockey by EPP classification

Summary

Ryan Moore is viewed by many as the best rider in the UK – the analysis in this blog post supports this view.
James Doyle rides as well as Richard Hughes and Jamie Spencer and has done so on longer priced horses with less ability.
Jamie Spencer rides horses further back than their usual position in races, and in doing so enables them to run closer to their maximum rating. The data suggests riding further back is a matter of choice. Whilst riding horse further back typically compromises their chances of winning races to a degree, the Impact Values for Jamie Spencer’s hold up rides are significantly above the average and also greater than 1. However they are also below that reported by Richard Hughes, James Doyle and Ryan Moore. It is possible that over time and over many more rides, the fact that his mounts are running closer to maximum ratings will be reflected in higher Impact Values than delivered in the 2013 flat season.

[kasparov]

It does seem to be very vague. I can understand the point about the declining horse population but maybe they would get horses to race more often if there was more prize money.

Also I am not convinced that the number of horses in a race is critical to betting – where is the evidence? I would like to see more 16 runner handicaps but I doubt if the bookmaking industry is pushing in that direction.

[kasparov]

Two good winners today from two races.
+411 points on the day.

Difficult to know what to do for tomorrow. Epsom could be anything from soft to good-firm. Worked out the Derby for "Good" ground and the only horse I make value (and by some way) is the one already backed as the main bet – True Story.

Apparently True Story was a non-trier in the Dante:

“I just think he has a better turn of foot,” he says of True Story, who finished third in the Dante Stakes at York behind subsequent French Derby winner The Grey Gatsby.
“He is a powerful galloper, and has given me all the right signals that he can win.
“He would have won any of the other Derbies I have been involved in. This Derby is exceptional, the best for a long, long time.
"Don’t forget you have Australia, who Aidan O’Brien claims is the best horse he has ever trained.”
Much depends, however, on True Story and the ground. “When it was soft at York he couldn’t get hold of it,” Fallon acknowledges.
“But he wasn’t beaten by much and I resisted being too hard on him. I was thinking to Epsom all the time.”

But maybe best not to take everything Mr Fallon says at face value.

[kasparov]

By the way my cunning plan outlined earlier appears to be working as the odds against Marvellous and Kingston Hill tumble in unison.

[kasparov]

Incidentally that raises another question on hold up horses. Do they get any material benefit from the slipstream of front runners? I would imagine the effect would be strongest in sprints, but there would be a disadvantage in allowing the front runner to get ahead in the first place.

[kasparov]

To illustrate the point I made a little while ago, the Grey Gatsby went off today at Chantilly at 12-1 SP in the UK but he was 19.9 on the PMU and 21.8 on zeturf. I am not sure what he was on the exchanges but I would guess about 18. Zeturf can be a very good deal for small bets, especially on non-French horses, although it might not be if you want to bet large as you might distort the pool.

[kasparov]

A good idea Ginge and I suspect you would be well-placed to benefit. Unfortunately the exacta and trifecta takeouts from the pool are quite large so it’s not an easy game to play, especially if like me you are not confident in your race reading ability. I do sometimes do the trifecta rollovers but as I have mentioned elsewhere even these don’t guarantee value unless you have a tote kickback.

One thing I have noticed is clustering in sprint races where horses drawn close to one another often finish close together. This was a tactic used by the old shrewdies on the CSF and tricast before it was corrected for draw bias. I once made a bit of money by doing a trifecta on a cluster of horses on the supposedly slow side of the track which turned out to be the fast side. But often it doesn’t work as we saw for example in the 2000 Guineas.

[kasparov]

Epsom may present an opportunity for a "correlated parlay" based on the weather.

Theory:

Horse A is odds of 10 now but will be 5.0 in wet and 20.0 in dry.
Horse B in a different race has similar odds.

Wet and dry are both 50% probabilities.

so a win double placed now will pay 100 for a stake of 1. But the probability of the win double winning is 1 in 25 if wet and 1 in 400 if dry. So 2.125% or odds of 47. Fantastic value.

In practice it’s not so clear cut but you could do Kingston Hill (Derby) and Marvellous (Oaks) as a wet weather double and Australia + Taghrooda as a dry weather double. Or if feeling ambitious maybe an antepost lucky 15 including other Epsom races might work. How clever is that?

[kasparov]

HAYDOCK clerk of the course Kirkland Tellwright has strenuously denied there was any commercial subtext to the way he conducted going reports for the track’s two-day Temple Stakes fixture.

The meeting started on Friday on going described as firm, good to firm in places, and changed to good following the first race. That pattern repeated on Saturday when persistent rain turned ground described at the start of play as good, to good to soft after the opener and soft just before the third race.

That triggered a host of non-runners – Friday’s card also suffered from a spate of withdrawals – as 19 were taken out, 17 due to the going.

Two-time Group 1-winning sprinter Sole Power, who travelled to the course from Eddie Lynam’s County Meath stable, was pulled out of the feature race, the £100,000 Temple Stakes.

"When we travelled over on Thursday the going was good to firm, but with the rain the ground went against us," said Lynam, who chose to go to the Curragh. "We knew the forecast and were hoping it didn’t materalise. We’ve no complaints, it’s not as if they watered."

Speaking after a difficult two days, Tellwright said: "It’s quite remarkable. I believed it was firm on Friday morning and I stand adamantly behind that. We had a shower and jockeys were happy to describe it as good.

"That gives you some idea of the degree of difficulty trying to deal with the going with 48-hour declarations. A going description is an opinion; the track is a mile and a half round and there will be several different goings.

"It’s absolutely nothing to do with financial pressure, but you can understand that if we expect rain to come in and ease the ground, you’re not going to err in a direction that would persuade people not to run.

"If you were confident there was rain coming and were in some doubt about whether it was firm or not, you wouldn’t be in a hurry to advertise firm. The risk of leaving it in is that you would unnecessarily dissuade people from declaring."

Tellwright continued: "Everyone is trying to boil it down to a simple process of saying what the going is, but it just isn’t a simple process. You are trying to come up with the aggregate position of what the jockeys would call it after the first race.

"I’m not going to stick my hand up to say I’ve been guilty of misleading people as I don’t think I have been."

[kasparov]

I think the fact that Ballydoyle routinely throw a lot of horses into this race suggests that they think it can be quite random. And I think there is quite a lot of luck involved:

1. Horses are lightly raced so form is uncertain
2. Many won’t have run over 1.5 miles before
3. Epsom track is tricky for some and crowds may distract
4. It can be a tactical race not always won by the best horse on the day

Of course there is a random element in all horse races. One might think given the prestige of the race it would somehow be less random than say a grade 6 at Wolverhampton but in fact the opposite is true in my view.

[kasparov]

If you do see a bookie going overbroke for a non-promotional reason, remember they might be able to use the palpable error rule to welch on any bet you make. This has happened to me once in the past and so I am wary of free lunches now.

[kasparov]

My experience with B365 was to be restricted to about 5p a bet fairly quickly. I complained and they did relent and let me bet up to about £20 under surveillance. However, my first bet after the let off was West End Rocker e/w in the Welsh National (a Gingertip if I recall correctly) . He won and I was back down to 5p again after that.

[kasparov]

I am a big fan of Ryan Moore and think he is at least as meritworthy in a sporting sense as say Stevie G, Andy Murray, Lewis Hamilton etc on the usual criteria of success, skill, professionalism etc.

But I can’t foresee a set of realistic circumstances where he would ever win a Sports Personality of the Year. It’s partly a personality issue – he’s rather taciturn and guarded in what he says perhaps for professional reasons and perhaps because he’s not an extrovert. But more importantly it’s hard to see how he could do something so noteworthy that might bring sufficient public attention. I can’t see him emulating AP’s dominance or Frankie’s magnificent 7. I don’t think being champion jockey or winning the Derby again would make much difference. Perhaps his best hope would be some sort of lifetime achievement recognition towards the end of his career.

So there we have it. One of our finest sportsmen, arguably the best jockey in the world, in a major spectator sport, who doesn’t seem to get much public recognition.

[Author]

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