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Tradition has it that heavy ground disrupts form-based betting and bookmakers tend to do well. Does this mean that one should bet on outsiders during wet weather? Or do the odds adjust anyway so it’s not worthwhile? My guess is that there may some marginal benefit in identifying horses which haven’t run on soft/heavy but with the potential to do well in those conditions, but I haven’t done any serious research.
On the other hand I recall Tom Segal doesn’t take much notice of ground conditions so maybe it’s not a very significant factor.
On the other hand I recall Tom Segal doesn’t take much notice of ground conditions so maybe it’s not a very significant factor.
What relevance is that? Is he a good judge? Does he make a good profit betting? Ground conditions are a very significant factor in my view.
Am I a good judge? No.
Do I make a good profit betting? No.Hope that helps.
Kasparov,
I’d say the biggest argument against betting in wet weather is not knowing how the jockeys will react. There was a prime example last night at Sandown, when Moore saved many lengths on Master Carpenter on the home turn, whilst his rivals went wide enough to have a look at the pond fence. There’s no way you could have predicted that in advance or taken it into account when you priced up the race.
Kasparov,
I’d say the biggest argument against betting in wet weather is not knowing how the jockeys will react. There was a prime example last night at Sandown, when Moore saved many lengths on Master Carpenter on the home turn, whilst his rivals went wide enough to have a look at the pond fence. There’s no way you could have predicted that in advance or taken it into account when you priced up the race.
Similar stuff happening at Worcester yesterday too.
I think the thing that would make it difficult for me is the plethora of non-runners that completely changes the shape & feel of the races over the course of the day.
Mike
Kasparov,
I’d say the biggest argument against betting in wet weather is not knowing how the jockeys will react. There was a prime example last night at Sandown, when Moore saved many lengths on Master Carpenter on the home turn, whilst his rivals went wide enough to have a look at the pond fence. There’s no way you could have predicted that in advance or taken it into account when you priced up the race.
Similar stuff happening at Worcester yesterday too.
I think the thing that would make it difficult for me is the plethora of non-runners that completely changes the shape & feel of the races over the course of the day.
Mike
Although I agree to a degree with AP and Mike, I do feel those who know their form can take advantage.
I put more emphasis on jockey bookings and likely pace in heavy ground, judgement of pace also more important. In a slowly run race on heavy ground it becomes even more difficult to make up ground, where as in an overly strongly run race it becomes a lot easier to close (win). Better jockeys are more likely to make the right decisions.
Races with a Pricewise column provide good betting opportunities for those who can take those prices. Not for backing Tom’s selections, but prices have been formulated the afternoon/early evening the previous day. So if there’s been more or less rain than forceasted/anticipated then some horses are likely to be overpriced.
It is not enough to know who acts on the ground, as Kasparov says this is usually allowed for in the betting. What I find more important is to allow for an increased test of stamina (unless it looks like being slowly run). Often a horse has proven it stays the trip on a sound surface and acts on heavy over shorter; but that does not mean it will stay the trip on the ground.
For those without form on the ground it helps to know which have round, pounding actions usually favourable to heavy conditions… And pointing, top-of-the-ground actions that usually don’t like heavy. If at the races, see them go to post. Sire’s progeny records on the surface are worth knowing too.
Non-runners can make it difficult, but it is usually fairly easy to predict a lot of probable non-runners. So if a punter can predict the make up of a race he can profit. e.g. If there are only two horses that like to lead/race prominently and one is a firm ground animal, then the other horse may be a good price (to get his own way up front) not only before the NR but immediately afterwards in the reformed book. imo Bookmakers tend to just reduce prices in accordance to what price they were before the withdrawl, instaed of looking again who’s been advantaged by non-runners.
Value Is EverythingThat certainly was a cracking ride by Moore. A very fair point though in regards how jockeys react. I’m not convinced there is a benefit coming stands side at Sandown or Brighton and have seen plenty a time horses have stayed far side and won.
Conditions definitely matter, sometimes horses are pigeonholed easily but there are certainly runners that excel on certain conditions above others. I think the way to look at it is a way of promoting a runner ahead of another where you know they certainly excel under conditions and you mark their ability up as a result.
Secret Art is an example of a horse who went off a short price at Sandown last night on the back of a performance on the pollytrack where, for me at least, it was evident that impressive win with a devastating change of gear was down to a liking on the pollytrack.
Ask yourself simply, had that race been run on pollytrack, would he have run such a limp one paced race? Where is he likely to excel and show his best?
The market will try to equate for it, sometimes accurately but will still always rule primarily by recency bias and those that can excel under softer will go overlooked often enough.
TB,
I’m fairly sure pollytrack is only used for parrot racing.
(Sorry, couldn’t resist)
AP
Kasp…
Probably best to sit back and watch , heavy ground brings a plethora of problems , although Ginger has valiantly tried to argue a text book case for getting involved , its still a massive chance to take ..
Most horses dont act or let themselves down on it
Most Jocks dont make any adjustments (brainless lot really )
Joe punter is the the victim of all the mis information that can be hurled at him
Try this
on a heavy slog , follow the progress of the horses that won or finished a close up second ….it takes them ages , simply ages to recover , if they ever do !!!
Just dont part with your cash , wait for another day ,,,for me I wont bet now at all until the dry weather kicks in
imo
No doubt, the ground makes a big difference.
However I have heard of some pros ignoring it to some extent. There is an argument that the market overestimates the chances of horses with soft ground form and underestimates those that might prefer it better. Certainly with relatively underexposed sorts, trainers are quick to point out that they prefer nice ground….which of course the vast majority of horses do.
Doesn’t necessarily mean one is more likely to win on it though.
SHL
Lest not forget, ability is the trump card, hence why some people ignore going as they just feel a horse is good enough. There are some soft ground loving 65 rated horses, they are not going to win a group 1.
To not bet just because of soft ground is folly, would someone not want to back Olympic Glory just because the ground is soft? He was one of the bets of the year in the QEII. He got some nice firm turf in Santa Anita and look where that got him.
Plenty of horses handle soft/ish ground. There are definitely those that excel on it though and that is what is important, finding those that excel not just handle it. Same for those on firm/ish (never see it these days), polytrack and fibresand.
Most horses dont act or let themselves down on it
Isn’t that a reason TO get involved Ricky?
Value Is EverythingTrue Ginger …you get the sellotape over the blue part of the exchange (the betting button )
and lay for your life !!!
true indeed
thing is Im a backer ….and I prefer to leave it alone
your right though on reflection , one can get involved big time ..when its heavy and you feel horses who are fav or short priced …who wont handle the slog ….time to lay ….if you like that sort of thing …..you only need to be wrong once though and your profits go bang wallop !!!!
I too prefer to back horses Ricky…
And because some won’t act on the ground makes others who do act – a value price.Although I do think more horses act on it than some punters believe.
Value Is EverythingEpsom may present an opportunity for a "correlated parlay" based on the weather.
Theory:
Horse A is odds of 10 now but will be 5.0 in wet and 20.0 in dry.
Horse B in a different race has similar odds.Wet and dry are both 50% probabilities.
so a win double placed now will pay 100 for a stake of 1. But the probability of the win double winning is 1 in 25 if wet and 1 in 400 if dry. So 2.125% or odds of 47. Fantastic value.
In practice it’s not so clear cut but you could do Kingston Hill (Derby) and Marvellous (Oaks) as a wet weather double and Australia + Taghrooda as a dry weather double. Or if feeling ambitious maybe an antepost lucky 15 including other Epsom races might work. How clever is that?
Kasp …
The bookies will tell you its extremely clever
,,,as they count your cash ,,,,best save it for a few pints and a pack of pork scratchings
Epsom may present an opportunity for a "correlated parlay" based on the weather.
Theory:
Horse A is odds of 10 now but will be 5.0 in wet and 20.0 in dry.
Horse B in a different race has similar odds.Wet and dry are both 50% probabilities.
so a win double placed now will pay 100 for a stake of 1. But the probability of the win double winning is 1 in 25 if wet and 1 in 400 if dry. So 2.125% or odds of 47. Fantastic value.
In practice it’s not so clear cut but you could do Kingston Hill (Derby) and Marvellous (Oaks) as a wet weather double and Australia + Taghrooda as a dry weather double. Or if feeling ambitious maybe an antepost lucky 15 including other Epsom races might work. How clever is that?
If bets like that appeal to you Kasparov, I suggest instead of "going" ante-post doubles, think "pace" exactas and trifectas. Slowly run races usully favour prominent runners and fast run races favour those held up. So have one batch of those usually ridden prominently and another batch of those usually held up/dropped out. Better still, if you work out a race likely to be run a certain way (slow or fast) and concentrate on the favoured group.
Value Is Everything
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