Betting in wet weather

[kasparov]

A good idea Ginge and I suspect you would be well-placed to benefit. Unfortunately the exacta and trifecta takeouts from the pool are quite large so it’s not an easy game to play, especially if like me you are not confident in your race reading ability. I do sometimes do the trifecta rollovers but as I have mentioned elsewhere even these don’t guarantee value unless you have a tote kickback.

One thing I have noticed is clustering in sprint races where horses drawn close to one another often finish close together. This was a tactic used by the old shrewdies on the CSF and tricast before it was corrected for draw bias. I once made a bit of money by doing a trifecta on a cluster of horses on the supposedly slow side of the track which turned out to be the fast side. But often it doesn’t work as we saw for example in the 2000 Guineas.

[Gingertipster]

Good point Kasparov, Group 1’s are less competitive than handicaps, so wouldn’t think it works as well. But "Clustering" in large field straight course handicaps (eg Hunt Cup) is something to consider in any bet. You wouldn’t have thought pace would be that important with so many runners, yet they’re often won by hold up horses drawn near front runners. ie Front runners draw the hold up horses in to the race. Where as, without that advantage hold up horses often find themselves giving away too much ground / on the "wrong side" of the course.

Supposed draw bias is often wrongly given, more often than not it is where the best pace is that’s the most important.

Value Is Everything

[kasparov]

Incidentally that raises another question on hold up horses. Do they get any material benefit from the slipstream of front runners? I would imagine the effect would be strongest in sprints, but there would be a disadvantage in allowing the front runner to get ahead in the first place.

[kasparov]

By the way my cunning plan outlined earlier appears to be working as the odds against Marvellous and Kingston Hill tumble in unison.

[Gingertipster]

Incidentally that raises another question on hold up horses. Do they get any material benefit from the slipstream of front runners? I would imagine the effect would be strongest in sprints, but there would be a disadvantage in allowing the front runner to get ahead in the first place.

I don’t personally think slipstreaming does any good in normal circumstances Kasparov. However, I do try and allow for hold up horses getting quite an advantage when there’s a strong

head

wind. Conversely, front runners have quite an advantage in a strong

tail

wind.

Value Is Everything

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