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It was a bit odd he went off as high as 9-1 SP for the Dante. He was the clear second best on Timeform rating and had his preferred ground and trip, all with the very best jockey. But it sounds like people had lost faith or regarded him as inconsistent or maybe True Story was though of as too good a thing.
Would you mind rustling us up a quick perm for the Scoop 6? I think 6 winners would put a stop to TAPK’s bleating about not being bold enough etc.
From the Guardian:
….but it was Kieren Fallon who emerged from Guineas weekend as the biggest winner, and with another high-profile engagement to anticipate as the Flat season moves on towards Epsom.
Fallon, who won the 2,000 Guineas on Night Of Thunder on Saturday took a minor race on Elite Gardens for Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor, and the trainer later confirmed that Fallon will take over from Silvestre de Sousa on True Story, a live contender for the Derby, when he runs in the Dante Stakes at York next week.
"Kieren is one of the best jockeys," Suroor said after Elite Gardens’ victory. "I’m happy to give him a chance in all the big races. He rode True Story today on the gallops and he gave me good information. He’s going to ride him in the Dante."
De Sousa has been Suroor’s principal jockey since Frankie Dettori lost his job as Godolphin’s No1 rider in the autumn of 2012, and he rode the trainer’s African Story to win the Dubai World Cup, the world’s richest race, in March. He also rode True Story to an impressive success in the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket’s Craven meeting in April, but the news that Fallon will replace him in the Dante suggests that Godolphin are already thinking two steps ahead to Epsom, and want to secure a jockey whose record at the demanding downland track is second to none.
It also suggests that De Sousa can no longer be sure of the ride on Suroor’s main contender for a major race. While Godolphin has adopted a loose structure with regard to riding arrangements since Dettori’s departure, with no overall No1 jockey, Fallon has quickly become a significant part of Suroor’s operation and now seems to be the rider among the Godolphin team whose star is on the ascendant.
Fallon has won the Derby four times, and has talked in the past of an affinity he feels for the track as similar to that of Dettori’s love for Ascot. The likelihood that he will be aboard True Story at Epsom to attract the attention of punters.
About 5m lines in this week’s bonanza. So you would £10m to cover every possibility. Nevertheless it looks like the pot should be won this week provided not a lot of outsiders win.
It’s still a tricky one though. Going for the top horses in the betting might mean you are going into an overbet pool. Putting in a few outsiders in your perm to say get the equivalent of 200,000 to 1 odds per line probably has the best prospective return on capital but hedging costs might be prohibitive. e.g. suppose you go into the last leg standing to win £1m but you are on a 9-1 shot in the 2000 Guineas. You would need £100,000 to lay it fully.
I don’t think the Scoop 6 is a particularly good deal today, but to be fair to Fred, the £100,000 bonus on the jackpot for Tote/Bedfred customers today is surprisingly generous. And the Sandown card is not impossible so this jackpot is a much more intelligent punt than the Scooper.
Another fiendishly difficult one. I reckon there are over 13m possible permutations (if there are no non-runners) and not many of these are less than 500,000 to 1 chances so another rollover is quite possible.
This thread has convinced me to bet more often on the AW. But here’s the thing: surely if AW is worth betting on, dog racing should also be worth following. I had always assumed dogs racing for £50 would be a bit dodgy but maybe by using the sectional times etc you can do quite well.
I had a look at the scoop 6 today as the pool is now quite big, but it’s still a very user unfriendly beast.
Some rough calcs:
The rollover is £1.4m for 6 winners and £1.9m for the bonus, gross.
Tote says combined win and bonus pot could reach £3m – I assume net – so that means the gross pot is expected to reach about £4.2m.
So that means about £0.9m will go into the win/bonus pot gross. But that means 0.4 x 0.9m = £ 0.36m will have to go into the gross place pot.
So punters are putting up £1.26m. And what do they get back?
On the place pot they will probably get 70% of what they put in ie £0.25m after the rake off.
On the win pot there are about 2m possible permutations, many of which are uneconomic relative to placing a 6 fold acca. So there is a good chance the pot won’t be won. I reckon about a 50% chance of winning is optimistic but let’s go with that. There is a 50% chance of winning £2.1m gross and getting a shot at the £2.1m bonus. But the chance of winning the bonus is probably about 1 in 4. So I reckon about £0.9m on average comes back to the punters after the rake off.
So punters put in £1.26m and can expect to get back £1.15m. Better than the National Lottery but not as exciting as you might expect with such a large prize at stake.
But maybe still worth a go if, as I expect, the pot doesn’t get as big as the tote projects. In that case it is possible the odds might shift to slightly favour the punters.
I think he will go on a while yet as it is not obvious what alternative career is open to him.
1.45 – Viewpoint + Asia Minor
2.20 – Fashion Line + Glastonberry
2.55 – Ertijaal *NAP + Major Crispies
3.30 – Litigant + Blue Wave
4.05 – Hasopop + Tarooq
4.40 – Grey Mirage + Captain Cat
5.20 – Solar Deity + Robin Hoods BayI’m getting a bit confused here. I thought it was all about form and analysis but recently it sometimes seems to be about inside info. I don’t care how the winners are found but it looks like a change of tack. Should we be more cautious on the second kind of tip?
Also I notice Obliterator was a Jamie Spencer selection, whereas on another thread you are advising punters not to take any notice of jockey tips. Maybe a case of better to do as I say rather do as I do?
Of course, I don’t want to sound ungrateful for the selfless hours you put into this moneyspinner for the rest of us, and every good pro bettor changes approach as conditions change; I’m just looking for a bit of clarification.
I have a book ‘Gold from the Sand’ – is this still relevant to AW racing or is there something better to read nowadays?
I fancy Cavelino’s naps will be really good. We already know that the Southall fav’s should turn a systam profit today so the fact that he/she’s gone for Newmarket suggests extra juice there.
But if you are only a "casual punter" then truth is you have no chance of making an over all profit. You’ll never be able to study races hard enough to come to the right conclusions. So it might be best to just enjoy the racing, with fun bets.
Of course Ginger is too modest to mention that following his daily lays and plays has been a reasonable way for the casual punter to make a bit of profit and have some fun without a lot of effort.
(Warning: past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future.)BHA concludes inquiry into 2013 King’s Stand Stakes
The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) has today announced the conclusion of its inquiries into an alleged post-race incident following the running of the 2013 Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot on Tuesday 18 June 2013.
The inquiries were instigated as a result of BHA being made aware of a video posted on YouTube which suggested that an unidentified item had been passed between Johnny Murtagh, rider of Sole Power (placed first) and Sarah Lynam, the daughter of trainer Eddie Lynam. The inquiry process was overseen by Jamie Stier, Director of Raceday Operations and Regulation for BHA.
BHA’s inquiries found that nothing untoward had taken place and clearly established that after unsaddling Sole Power in the Winners Enclosure following the race Sarah Lynam placed the girth carried by Sole Power during the race, and which had been removed from the horses tack during unsaddling, over the saddle of Johnny Murtagh. It was also established that at no time did Johnny Murtagh pass any item to Sarah Lynam.
As part of these inquiries Johnny Murtagh, Eddie Lynam, and Sarah Lynam were interviewed. Eddie Lynam also represented the interests of Mrs S Power, the owner of Sole Power. All parties were accompanied during the interviews by Mr Frank Ward, Frank Ward & Co. Solicitors, Dublin.
Also reviewed was the official Stewards patrol footage of the race, together with all footage recorded by Channel 4 in their terrestrial coverage and high-quality footage of the incident (which can be found in a file attached to this press release) provided by At The Races.
It was also noted that the Clerk of the Scales report from this race recorded Johnny Murtagh as having weighed out to ride Sole Power at 9st 4lb, the same weight he weighed in at following the race.
Jamie Stier, Director of Raceday Operations and Regulation for BHA, said:
“With these findings establishing that nothing untoward took place following the running of the 2013 Kings Stand Stakes, and that there had not been any breach of the Rules, the matter is now closed. BHA appreciates the assistance of At the Races and Channel 4 in providing requested footage in relation to this matter.”
Notes to Editors:
1. High quality broadcast footage of the incident, supplied by At The Races, can be found attached to this press release. Any broadcaster wishing to show this footage must contact At The Races for permission.
2. The original YouTube video of the incident can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M63SyyO3eHM
Interesting RP article on the synthetic surface at Meydan and its consequences:
THE Dubai World Cup party will be as spectacular as ever at Meydan on Saturday, but behind all the fireworks and frivolity there will be a slight sense of unease among the racecourse management ahead of their fifth hosting of the world’s richest race.
There is no denying Meydan is a magnificent setting for the World Cup. In 1000 years historians will look back at the lavish stadium on the edge of the Arabian Desert as the greatest homage to the sport since the Circus Maximus.
But the synthetic Tapeta racing surface that cuts between the world’s largest grandstand and the colossal big screen is unique at this level of competition, leaving Meydan dancing a fine line between historic immortality and cultural isolation.
There are three categories of running surface in global horse racing: turf, dirt and synthetics. In 2010 the Dubai Carnival shifted its premier surface from the second most popular (dirt) to the third (synthetics).
This move saw the US dirt contingent almost disappear from the meeting. As you might expect it also saw a huge rise in the fortunes of those horses from the previously niche category of ‘synthetics’.
Data from the first four years shows that 75 per cent of horses who finished first, second or third in each of the Dubai World Cup, Golden Shaheen, UAE Derby and Godolphin Mile had previously won on synthetics.
Those might be the sort of results you would expect when a track changes type, but how did we get here in the first place? This is the richest race in the world being run on the third most popular surface. The truth is it was all about timing.
Back when Meydan was constructed in 2010 synthetics looked to be the track of the future. There were studies showing it to be safer and fairer than conventional dirt tracks and even the traditionalists in the US had started to come around to the idea.
In 2008 and 2009 the Breeders’ Cup was held on synthetic surfaces for the first time at Santa Anita. The Americans hosted it and the rest of the world was not deterred from running on it. It seemed the shape of things to come.
But the US flirtation with the third way wouldn’t last. After the Europeans enjoyed their most successful ever Breeders’ Cup raids in 2008 and 2009 the home team called time on the project and Santa Anita promptly reinstated conventional dirt.
The reason for Santa Anita’s synthetics revolt was important: the conservative ‘dirt’ horsemen didn’t like it. For generations their horses had been bred to perform on dirt and by changing the tracks to synthetics the pecking order was changing, turning bloodlines upside down.
The timing of Santa Anita’s decision was also important. In late 2009 Tapeta looked a future proof choice for the UAE megatrack, but Santa Anita’s subsequent defection to dirt left Meydan as the only major international championship track running on synthetics.
In a few months the whole outlook changed. What had been a progressively favourable view of all-weather racing suddenly seemed much less secure. And Meydan had only just joined the party.
Here’s a question: if Meydan was completed a year later – after Santa Anita had reverted to dirt – would the management at the spectacular mega-track still have opted for a synthetic surface on which to run the world’s richest race?
It may be that Santa Anita was the blip in the timeline. It may be that the global momentum still favours synthetics and Santa Anita was just a pebble against the tide of all-weather progress. The bandwagon may simply roll on regardless, leaving the old two-track culture and its traditionalist views in its wake.
If the all-weather tracks do grow in popularity and eventually join, or even surpass the numbers of turf and dirt courses, Meydan will be seen as the pioneer and this the turning point.
But that’s for the future. The problem for Meydan in the here and now is that this vision is a far cry from where we are today.
At present the participation in all-weather racing, particularly at the highest levels, sits a distant third behind turf and dirt. And, as we have seen from the Meydan data, surface matters.
As far as the Meydan management are concerned they should want this track specialism trend to abate. They should have their fingers firmly crossed for a Tapeta debutant to come out on top in the world’s richest race on Saturday, if only to broaden participation.
What they should not want is a repeat of the 2012 World Cup result, which saw unheralded course specialists Monterosso and Capponi run out a 1-2 for the home team against global superstars like So You Think and Game On Dude.
That result proved not that Monterosso was better than So You Think, but that he was better suited to the track. Should that really be the factor that determines the richest race in the world?
There are three possible outcomes in the Dubai World Cup this year, representing the three different surface types.
There are a trio of dirt specialists in the line-up, a number of high quality turf specialists and five horses who have previously won on synthetics.
The best result for the Meydan management, and the future of the Dubai World Cup, would be a success for Wattani (formerly known as Ron The Greek) or one of the Japanese dirt runners.
US dirt horses have been the biggest loss to the World Cup since the change of surface, but a win for Wattani could change all that.
He is set to become just the second US horse not to have won on synthetics to contest the World Cup since 2010. What he does could change perceptions and widen interest in the States, although whether he can win is another matter.
The second and perhaps most likely outcome this year is that one of the turf horses yet to win on synthetics can adapt to the track and outclass the Meydan specialists. Derby winner Ruler Of The World and Hong Kong star Military Attack rank highly in this group.
The third outcome – the synthetics specialists one – would be the worst result for Meydan. This is the direction the statistics have been heading in the first four years on Tapeta, but in 2014 the five previous all-weather winners really shouldn’t be good enough to continue the trend.
With the suspicion that the track specialists will not be good enough, the challenge in the win market is to speculate on which of the classy turf horses will handle the track. If that’s your cup of tea, guess away, but it’s not for me.
It may be safer looking at the bigger odds on synthetics horses like Red Cadeaux (25-1) or Sanshaawes (16-1) to fill the frame.
With a handicapping hat on I’m just eager to find out how the three different groups of specialists will handle the track. No doubt the Meydan team will be pretty interested in that as well.
The rest of the Tapeta races on World Cup night should be dominated, as in recent years, by previous all-weather winners. Hong Kong’s Rich Tapestry is one of those and looks the one to beat in the Golden Shaheen.
The top rated horse at this early stage of the World Class year is Game On Dude (127), who landed a superb renewal of the Santa Anita Handicap from Will Take Charge (125).
