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Your staking plan seems reasonable to me, but I think it will be hard to get more than about 25p a point on-line once bookmaker restrictions hit your account. This is especially true if the bookmaker is offering better odds than Betfair, because it seems they have software to detect and restrict bets in such cases.
I suppose that raises the question of what the thread is for. I find it useful to make a bit of pocket money and learn about racing so I am a big fan and very grateful for the effort you put in. But I don’t think it is a realistic ‘proof’ that you can shop around bookmakers with big money.It might be simpler and more realistic to use Betfair mid-prices less 5%.
I am also surprised Mad Moose is entered. Even on top form he ought to have no chance, but maybe it was an opportunistic entry in the hope no decent horses turned up.
A bit strange that both Silvianaco Conti and Al Ferof have had ulcers. Is Nicholls ahead of the game once again in medical matters,is it their diet at Ditcheat or maybe his horses just get very stressed?
What’s the best way to bet on these races? Looks like a choice between UK bookmakers, exchanges and PMU copycats with lower takeouts. But not sure about liquidity.
Maybe related to the fall in the oil price. Sheiks may be tightening their belts for a bit.
I don’t understand why Nicky doesn’t run SS anyway. If he didn’t win he could blame soft ground and ‘needing a run’. This seems to be acceptable practice and would have the advantage of getting the horse fit.
I find the rules a bit strange. For example, it’s ok to pass on inside info that your horse is running 50 lengths better than past form would suggest, it’s ok for Nicky Henderson to lay his own horses as ‘insurance’, but it’s not ok to tell your friend that your rag has no chance of winning.
Unless clearly displayed otherwise, all each-way bets except ante-post bets will be settled
on the actual number of starters according to the following place terms: –
• Fewer than 5 runners – all to win
• 5-7 runners – 1/4 odds a place 1-2
• 8 or more runners – 1/5 odds a place 1-2-3
• Handicaps with 12-15 runners – 1/4 odds a place 1-2-3
• Handicaps with 16 or more runners – 1/4 odds a place 1-2-3-4I don’t think this entirely clears it up. I would take this to imply that ante post will normally be settled on the number of runners at the time the bet was struck.This is how it normally works.
However, it looks like bookies are within their rights anyway because the "unless clearly displayed otherwise" clause allows them to do what they like. In addition the ante post rules aren’t prescribed.
I notice all bookmakers have gone 1/4 odds first 2 on this unless all 8 turn up. Since there is a strong chance of at least one non-runner, better to wait till Saturday morning before taking the each way.
The superstar two-miler has not run since being pulled up by Barry Geraghty in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton last Christmas, after which he was diagnosed with a heart problem.
That was rectified some time ago, but Henderson is hanging fire on the green light for Sandown, in a race he won with ease in 2012.
He told the Telegraph: "We’re reasonably close, we’ve just got to see.
"I’ll know by Tuesday or Wednesday where we are. It doesn’t even mean he can’t do a racecourse gallop this week if we get the all-clear. He’s had his all-clear from Newmarket (equine specialists) and everything is tickety boo."
Well fancy that.
Not this year. But a good year to skip as Rory or Lewis will win anyway. Slightly strange he wasn’t nominated after a very good year for him – apparently he is less noteworthy than a lot of minor sports people who in my view don’t seem to have achieved anything very memorable.
However, I think the Ryan Moore PR machine is perhaps cranking up. He has been profiled on BBC and I reckon if he can do something major like a Derby Arc double he could be in with a shout. Otherwise he will have to wait for a year toward the end of his career when competition is weak and he can pick up Ryan Giggs-like lifetime achievement recognition.
I have looked at the card for this. And I am puzzling over the three ratings for each horse – official, Topspeed and RPR.
I know how the OR works and I assume the RPR uses a similar traditional handicapping system. It looks like the RPR is weight adjusted – making Exitas best in at the weights.
But what about the TS? Is this weight adjusted? I assume not. So Eagle Rock is best in.But maybe weight doesn’t work with TS ratings.
I suppose the bottom line is what do the TS ratings tell us about each horse’s chances in the Greatwood?
I agree with all the above, but I did read once that his training regime didn’t suit a lot of horses, which were then subsequently discarded, much to the annoyance of the people who owned them.
