Tingle Creek 2014

[Gingertipster]

imo This race doesn’t seem as open as the media are making out.

Balder Success

not only imo has the best form in the book (4 length winner over Simply Ned at Aintree) but also has most scope for improvement, is a 2 miler and from a trainer in excellent form.

Gods Own

looks worth at least a saver. Beat BS 5 lengths last time out (reappearance) in receipt of 7 lbs. Although GO won with a bit to spare BS did make a mistake at an important time (home straight). Winner’s trainer has done well first time out this season. GO also beat BS at Punchestown, but the latter went off too quick that day and did best of those ridden prominently. BS beat GO earlier last season at this course when I had backed GO! I’ve backed Kingy’s for the Champion Chase.

The other horse I believe value is

Somersby

, although the fact he’s difficult to win with (often finds little off bridle) makes him just a saver. Run well in this race last year before behind better horse (4 lengths 2nd to Sire De Grugy) than he meets here. Ran well last time out, chasing home Al Ferof at Ascot and is fully effective at a testing 2 miles.

Of the Others:

Oscar Whiskey

for me doesn’t jump well enough for a 2m Championship race. Put in a better round in the Paddy Power, but that was over further and they didn’t go a fast pace either. That said, best chance would be in a truly run race to bring stamina in to play. Did improve at Cheltenham and would be a danger if finally able to reproduce hurdle form (unlikely imo). Poor value at current odds.

Vukovar

is a horse I’ve always liked, backed him when he won in impressive style and again at the Cheltenham Festival. Do think there’s a fair chance he’ll prove top class eventually, but whether that’s at this trip, questionable, and needs to make considerable progress in one go to beat these. Top Class trainer in the making too, with an outstanding strike rate and invariably in my "trainers in form". I’ve missed the big prices earlier in the week so will let Vukovar go this time; but keep an eye on him.

Nicholls is in good form, but I don’t like his two.

Dodging Bullets

is one I’ve lost enough money on in previous seasons, imo one to oppose for win purposes. Some might see last time out’s performance – coming there full of running before finding little up Cheltenham’s hill – as "needing it"… But he’s got a good record fresh, ran to form (Simply Ned just in front) and that’s just how DB runs all races. Either wins seemingly with a little in hand, or gets there and doesn’t find much under pressure. Has a bit to find on form anyway, looking exposed.

Hinterland

is worse than his stable companion, inconsistent and imo should have a squiggle (temperamental). Often pulls hard and doesn’t look hearty in a finish when getting around.

Third Intention

is another risky proposition, travels well but often doesn’t seem to get home. May be first time out in a 4 runner affair was the best time to back him. Stable in excellent form so could run well enough without winning.

Williams Wishes

was doing well in good handicaps a couple of seasons ago, before injury again stopped his progression (lightly raced). Ran only once last season and once over hurdles this season. What he’s capable of nowadays is anyone’s guess and needs to improve another chunk on his best.

Pepite Rose

probably needs dryer ground and most of her form suggests needs to find a bit more (seems exposed). That said, shes more straightforward than some of these and stable in better form this time of year than previous seasons.

My 100% book:

Balder Success 9/4
Gods Own 100/30
Somersby 8/1

Oscar Whiskey 11/1
Vukovar 12/1
Dodging Bullets 15/1
Third Intention 28/1
Pepite Rose 33/1
Hinterland 33/1
Williams Wishes 33/1

I’ve backed Balder Success with savers on Gods Own and Somersby.

Value Is Everything

[Peruvian Chief]

OW clipped to 6’s best price. An early Mr. Seagull leak?

[kasparov]

Pricewise is relayed on twitter about 8pm on Friday night so hardly a leak.

[Peruvian Chief]

Ah I didn’t realise that.

[stevecaution]

You are not alone PC, I didn’t have a clue either.

I don’t follow Pricewise because I believe that by the time the value is tipped up, the horse in question is rank bad value within a millisecond.

I’ll manage to leave Oscar Whisky alone at as low as 5/1.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Steeplechasing]

I’ve followed Third Intention like Philip Marlowe on a million buck retainer, like McCartney with the Maharishi, like the Road Runner over a thousand cliffs…and I don’t intend giving up…look out down there!!!

That is if I’ve survived the Medermit swan-dive few minutes earlier

[stevecaution]

Well done to the Dodging Bullets fans. That seemed a big career best for him and he surprised me.

It looked a bit ropey for Oscar Whisky after his fall but Clare Balding seems to think he’d trodden on his reins.

Vukovar travelled OK but got tired really early. He was bitterly disappointing and those on at big odds never had a prayer of collecting.

Balder Success and Gods Own were both disappointing and that vein of form proved a complete red herring.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Tonge]

Ruby Light posted that Oscar Whisky broke a hind leg in the Memorials section. Looked like that to me too but hopefully we’re both wrong

[stevecaution]

Sadly, Oscar Whisky had to be put down.

Clare was havering it seems.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[thehorsesmouth]

Sadly, Oscar Whisky had to be put down.

Clare was havering it seems.

Looked like he broke his near hind

[JJMSports]

What an utterly bizzare race that was.

[Author]

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