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The weather could be a big factor now. The Irish horses might be reluctant to come over if there is a chance the thing might be called off or the horses can’t be exercised before the race, especially as they have alternative entries in the Lexus. It could boil down to a select field of Kauto, Long Run, Nacarat, Planet of Sound, Riverside Theatre and maybe the Nightingale.
I imagine perhaps the Irish would fly in on the day if it was on. I am not sure if they come by boat normally.
I have been looking at Kauto’s race times. He has not lost since 2005 on a right handed track and he is very consistent over 3 miles. His King George times 2006-9 are metronomic: 6.06 (GS),6.09 (GS),5.57 (G),6.07 (GS). His Down Royal times ,both soft, are 6.35 in 2008 and 6.22 in 2010.
Long Run did 6.15 (GS) at Kempton last year. At 4 lengths per second that would be 24 lengths behind Kauto, plus another 10 lengths for 10 pounds, good enough for a place if he had run in the 2009 King George.It looks like LR might have done even better if he hadn’t made jumping errors so I can see why he is second fav.
Riverside Theatre has run 5.07 (G) over 2 miles 4 furlong 110 yds (16 fences) recently at Kempton. If he could maintain that speed he would do three miles in about 5.59. But he probably couldn’t and it would not be enough to beat Kauto’s good ground time of 5.57.
Kautp was carrying 11-10, Long Run 11-0 and Riverside 11-9. Riverside’s time appears to be within one second of the course record, but I have a feeling that stat is not very meaningful, having been achieved in a grade 3.
It looked to my untrained eye that the pace of this race was a bit slow and this might explain the bunch finish. In fact it was slower by a few seconds than the novice chase over the same distance today. So I don’t think we can reach any definite form conclusions.
I notice Mr Mullens said his horses, Cooldine and J’y Vole, might not be fully fit before this race. So it proved despite a shortening of their odds prior to the off. Seems like Mullens plays a straight bat, like Mr Nicholls.
Thanks TAPK. It’s encouraging that it appears that common sense and effort can be rewarded. However, it is a little surprising that one doesn’t seem to need some special angle to beat the market. I notice the best tipsters like Tom Segal seem to use fairly conventional approaches to form,weight etc but have a better knack of using the info to find the mispriced horse. I don’t think I have the knack just yet but with a bit more experience it might come.
It looks like Riverside Theatre is a confirmed starter now he has skipped the Peterborough. Also, intriguingly, The Nightingale has not turned up at either the Durkan or the Peterborough. This strikes me as strange as the Durkan will be run on soft whereas the King George is more likely to be good.
I am beginning to think this ante post malarkey is too difficult, especially in the fortnight before the race. The insiders know which horses will run whereas we don’t. Also they know which horses are doing well in training and we don’t. Furthermore , it is sometimes hard to understand the things we do know. Why is Denman entered for the Lexus? Why do some Irish horses come to Kempton and some English horses go to the Lexus?
Sizing Europe is the one though. Confirmed runner with fair form v Kauto and decent odds 14/1 each way.
Sorry – Nightingale is 167.
I saw on one website that money is coming in for this animal, but I haven’t seen a market for this race. Is it with some obscure Irish bookmaker?
I notice TAPK is not keen on Kauto or Long Run. Should we pile in now to Cooldine at 149-1 on Betfair in the hope the Durkan is used as a training race for the big one? Or is there now a change in thinking? Perhaps the King can guide his serfs towards a bit of spending money in the Christmas sales.
Probably not, as I don’t normally see the point.
One thing that is slightly different this year though is the absence of a clash with the X Factor final. On balance I would say this is bad news for AP as it probably means more voters so the racing vote will be diluted. Also it probably moves us to a younger SPOTY demographic than last year’s voters. I would guess younger people are less inclined to vote for somebody who whips horses than older people. On the other hand the younger viewers might have fewer preconceived voting intentions and be more swayed by the coverage on the night. This could work in AP’s favour as I have no doubt at least one pundit on the programme will tell viewers that McCoy is the most deserving.
This looks like a good opportunity for my favourite horse, The Nightingale, on his preferred soft ground at Fairyhouse. Rated 162 by no less an authority than the BHA and likely to be fully fit like most Nicholls runners. See other threads for the more sceptical views of Fist and TAPK.
A I said a while back, this looks like it’s going to be one of the smaller field King Georges with about 9 runners. Each way betting ante post is therefore potentially a good idea.
However, versus current exchange prices Long Run at 5/1 or even 6/1 e/w is not especially good value.I am trying to work out the most likely placers behind Kauto. Nacarat might go off too fast and fade at the end and Long Run could clip a fence, so I suppose that leaves Forpady, Sizing and Planet and maybe Albertas Run (20/1 nrnb) or Riverside Theatre (doubtful runner).
I am no expert on Long Run but I notice that fallers are very rare in the King George (none in the last 4 years) and he got round Kempton quite well last year, albeit in a much slower time than Kauto in similar ground conditions. In a small and mediocre field I would make him second favourite.
looks like both Bangor and Newbury have offered to take it on according to the Cornelius Lysaght twitter
I notice a couple of the runners in this are apparently off to Huntingdon tomorrow for the Peterborough Chase. Kalahari King is about 7-1. No sign of them being scratched. How is it possible to recover in time? I thought it took about 5 weeks to recover from a competitive chase.
I am not offended. I expect the odd put down from senior members now and then. However, just so everyone knows, I tend to approach races from a statistical perspective rather than knowing much about horses. I don’t like taking risks and I often bet or arb on 6 or 7 or all horses in a race.
The point is the Kauto back-lay strategy potentially risks total wipeout. So can this risk be mitigated?
Now if you like Kauto, then it makes no sense to hedge in the win market by backing the others as you would think them underpriced. But the w/o Kauto prices are fair in the sense that they don’t reflect an opinion on Kauto. In fact in the case of Long Run at 7/2(4.5), versus 6/1 (7.0)for the win they are generous in my view. Similarly for Sizing Europe.
In my view you can get a more balanced return by backing Kauto himself plus others w/o Kauto. I have done so myself.
Now I have the benefit of Kauto running for me at evens when I think he should be odds on and I have the others running for me at a forecast overround of less than 100% in a different race without Kauto. Maybe it is Irish. I suppose the w/o Kauto bets are a separate issue to whether you think Kauto will win or not, but they provide some benefit whether he wins or loses so are a risk-reducing diversification.
Just to be clear though, I have recently slightly reversed some of these positions in the light of a drop in Long Run’s w/o Kauto odds on the exchange to 3.75.
Quite a dangerous strategy IMO. What if Kauto doesn’t turn up or falls at an early fence? I think Kauto is mispriced at evens but maybe 10/11 NRNB is better with Ladbroke. Another way to hedge the Kauto risk is to back Long Run and Sizing Europe etc w/o Kauto at 7/2 and 8/1 etc. This is better value at current prices than backing them outright and also gives some upside if one of them comes second to Kauto.
We have been drifting off topic recently. To get the discussion back on track, I think there is an interesting technical situation developing in this race.
There are only 6 horses apart from Kauto with odds of less than 40-1 on the exchange. Conservatively assuming Kauto is placed, the other 6 have on average a roughly 2 in 6 chance of placing. So true odds of 2/1 for a place.So each way would look good value if it were not for the fact that odds have been clipped on the most likely placers, Long Run and Forpady. Nevertheless Sizing Europe looks good at 14/1 win and 14/3 place and is in fact an arb if you can be bothered.
Now, there might be a flaw in my reasoning…….I don’t understand why more horses aren’t thought likely to have a crack at this. Kauto is aging, Long Run is speculative, Forpady always comes second etc so I would expect a few more horses to turn up in the hope of either win or place money. Perhaps they will but at the moment they all appear to be very long odds against. So maybe the value is in Albertas Run or Burton Port at over 40/1+ rather than the eachway higher up the pecking order.
