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Apparently he had extensive treatment on his bad back so that explains his return to winning ways. See today’s Guardian.
Bishopbriggs was in fact tipped by the flatstats twitter feed prior to the race on the statistical basis that his winning jockey was back on board.
There is further discussion of the Quinlan double in Jose’s regular postings on horses dropping in the handicap.
All weather racing for low prize money seems to me ripe for insider coups. I initially thought it was a minefield and have not bet on it but I am beginning to think it is susceptible to rational analysis, based on factors other than form, such as trainer behaviour and strike rates.
The Peter May website is quite informative and has some free ebooks.
I recently read the biography of Alex Bird which was quite interesting. It gives some insight into how he made his money, especially on photo finishes.
I believe the new Jon Gibby book has good reviews – I haven’t read it but previous books have been good.
However, I am struggling with some of the stuff that gets discussed on this forum, like head carriage and other finer points. A lot of it is arcane to me. Rather than put up lots of questions it would be good if beginners could be pointed to sources of reference and education that the experienced people take for granted.
I see Binocular is 9/4 to be favourite for the Champion Hurdle. Tempting I would say as he only needs to put on one good performance before the festival to be the favourite. On the other hand he might not.
In fact there was a double for trainer Mick Quinlan today with Bishopbriggs and Tell Halaf. The best morning prices were 11/1 and 10/1 but they both went off as favourites at 11/4 and 9/4. The thing I find surprising is that the price moves seem to come quite late and I believe this is the norm. You’d think that the people in the know would take the early prices and move them quite quickly. I would because I would be worried about other people front running me. But most of the action seems to take place in the last few minutes. Is it something to do with what the horses look like in the parade ring? Or did punters conclude that Tell Halaf was likely to be a good thing because Bishopbriggs had just won?
Having discussed the third highest rated horse The Nightingale at 90/1 (now 28/1), I feel entitled to bring up the second highest rated horse in the race, Albertas Run (168). There is something odd here about 40/1 on the exchanges. Based on public info I would say he is a 20/1 shot. I know he has recently been inconsistent but on a good day he should challenge for at least a place.
Strange they called it off before 12. I notice Betfair was trading for a few minutes at around 1.04 for no AFTER the race had been called off earlier on the kempton website.
Also I checked the sportingbet bets – I was looking at their NRNB rather than ane post which would explain why next day bets are void.
I agree it’s all rather confusing. The problem seems to be the covers are stuck to the ground and are likely to keep sticking if there is a heavy frost on the night before 26 Dec. But it’s odd that this wasn’t thought to be a problem before.
Down to 11 runners now. I am a bit surprised all the ones with a ground preference stayed in. e.g. Albertas and forpady like it good whereas Nightingale likes it soft. Judging from comments from Kempton it looks like the ground will be good or good to soft. So maybe something for everybody.
Also I find it hard to believe nobody knows if Riverside Theatre will get the three miles. Surely with all the science involved in training nowadays you would think it possible to work it out.
I notice sportingbet ante post bets are void even if the race is at Kempton the next day. However, I believe all the other layers will not void them for a one day delay at the same venue.
Hugh Taylor has moved the price of Nacarat by recommending him each way. Not a bad idea and his rationale that a lot of the competing runners are unproven at a fast 3 miles makes sense. However, I am slightly surprised he didn’t go for Planet of Sound who is a better price and beat Nacarat in the Betfair Chase.
this is a handy real time report: http://www.sunburyweather.co.uk/
The real time data is good I think but note the 5 day forecast is not sourced locally.
I thought the postponement plan was for Sandown on Jan 8 but looks like it will go ahead as scheduled now.
I agree Reet . I am also grappling with other imponderables: the going and the Irish horses.
The ground is good according to the going stick. But as it is so cold I don’t know if this means anything. When the snow melts does it run off the covers, leaving the ground as good or does it melt into the ground, making it soft? This is quite important given the clear preference of Long Run and the Nightingale for soft and pady’s preference for good.
The Leopardstown forecast is quite mild for 28 Dec so the Lexus should go off on schedule. Kempton is 50/50 for Sunday but probably odds on for Monday. The Irish horses could be cooped up from Thursday (when they set off) till Monday and then might not even get a run if the race is postponed to Jan 8. The trainers must be actively considering whether it’s worth the hassle over Christmas when the Lexus is more convenient.
It seems like N Ireland is the place to come from as it gives you two shots at a personality award. But why is McDowell favourite rather than McCoy? Is it to even things up or because Lee Westwood isn’t on the roster?
I am trying to work out if Kauto is good value at 11/10 (W Hill ante post).
If all horses run to form then Kauto should win by about 20 lengths. But there are many risks. I rate them as follows:
not turning up 2%
falling or being pulled up after major jumping error 15%
aging slightly so not quite so fast – say 1% or 4 seconds (16 lengths slower) – 20%
slowed by minor jumping errors 20%
another horse running well above form 20%So assuming these are independent risks and any one of the last three would give a 50% chance of not winning but two or more combined would cause him definitely to lose, his probability of winning would be roughly
0.98 x 0.85 x 0.704 = 0.59 or decimal odds of 1.69 or roughly 4/6.If you are with me so far you should be questioning where the risk percentages come from. I have made them up using my skill and judgement. I would be interested in alternative inputs.
However, it does make you wonder where the odds compilers get their 11/10 from. Maybe they just look at the exchange prices or maybe they say he went off at shorter odds (8/13) last year so this year they should be a tad longer as he is a bit older and there are improving horses like Long Run in the field.
There are 14 runners left now. It looks like at least 7 certain to start, then Albertas Run and Burton Port as possibles, then 5 doubtful at 50.0 or more. There seems to be a media blackout on Albertas and Burton. Does anyone know how likely they are to turn up?
Why not, kasparov. A cancelled meeting is a cancelled meeting, isn’t it, whatever number or date, the plan? Could you explain? I expect I’ve missed something elementary.
Ante post rules vary from bookmaker to bookmaker. Change of venue and date should be enough to void a bet but a one day delay at the same venue might not. From Ladbroke:
The race is run on a later date at the same venue; and entries are not re-opened, in which case the bet will stand.
Are there any contingency plans, for example due to the weather? Or will they postpone, and run elsewhere? Or run at a later date for example?
According to Lysaght on twitter, plan b is 27 Dec at Kempton, plan c Jan 8 at Sandown. I am not sure if ante post bets would stand for plan b but they almost certainly would be voided for Sandown.
