Dubai World Cup 2014

I ask about the pace because the Fugue at 6/1 looks an each way bet to nothing but at the distance would want them to go some from the gates.

I would agree with that Steve but it is a big prize on offer and I don’t think they would send her there for a holiday. It’s not my favourite meeting by a stretch but at the odds I might play a small bet for a bit of interest.

I was just reading through your opening post STM and completely agree about the distance for Ruler of the World, I think had he not won the Derby then he would have been lining up in the Leger. With the surface out there in Dubai aswell it will all happen to quick for him.

Thanks STM, I had a pound acca running up nicely as well with Nepal and Hong Kong winning the cricket yesterday, never mind.

Interesting RP article on the synthetic surface at Meydan and its consequences:

THE Dubai World Cup party will be as spectacular as ever at Meydan on Saturday, but behind all the fireworks and frivolity there will be a slight sense of unease among the racecourse management ahead of their fifth hosting of the world’s richest race.

There is no denying Meydan is a magnificent setting for the World Cup. In 1000 years historians will look back at the lavish stadium on the edge of the Arabian Desert as the greatest homage to the sport since the Circus Maximus.

But the synthetic Tapeta racing surface that cuts between the world’s largest grandstand and the colossal big screen is unique at this level of competition, leaving Meydan dancing a fine line between historic immortality and cultural isolation.

There are three categories of running surface in global horse racing: turf, dirt and synthetics. In 2010 the Dubai Carnival shifted its premier surface from the second most popular (dirt) to the third (synthetics).

This move saw the US dirt contingent almost disappear from the meeting. As you might expect it also saw a huge rise in the fortunes of those horses from the previously niche category of ‘synthetics’.

Data from the first four years shows that 75 per cent of horses who finished first, second or third in each of the Dubai World Cup, Golden Shaheen, UAE Derby and Godolphin Mile had previously won on synthetics.

Those might be the sort of results you would expect when a track changes type, but how did we get here in the first place? This is the richest race in the world being run on the third most popular surface. The truth is it was all about timing.

Back when Meydan was constructed in 2010 synthetics looked to be the track of the future. There were studies showing it to be safer and fairer than conventional dirt tracks and even the traditionalists in the US had started to come around to the idea.

In 2008 and 2009 the Breeders’ Cup was held on synthetic surfaces for the first time at Santa Anita. The Americans hosted it and the rest of the world was not deterred from running on it. It seemed the shape of things to come.

But the US flirtation with the third way wouldn’t last. After the Europeans enjoyed their most successful ever Breeders’ Cup raids in 2008 and 2009 the home team called time on the project and Santa Anita promptly reinstated conventional dirt.

The reason for Santa Anita’s synthetics revolt was important: the conservative ‘dirt’ horsemen didn’t like it. For generations their horses had been bred to perform on dirt and by changing the tracks to synthetics the pecking order was changing, turning bloodlines upside down.

The timing of Santa Anita’s decision was also important. In late 2009 Tapeta looked a future proof choice for the UAE megatrack, but Santa Anita’s subsequent defection to dirt left Meydan as the only major international championship track running on synthetics.

In a few months the whole outlook changed. What had been a progressively favourable view of all-weather racing suddenly seemed much less secure. And Meydan had only just joined the party.

Here’s a question: if Meydan was completed a year later – after Santa Anita had reverted to dirt – would the management at the spectacular mega-track still have opted for a synthetic surface on which to run the world’s richest race?

It may be that Santa Anita was the blip in the timeline. It may be that the global momentum still favours synthetics and Santa Anita was just a pebble against the tide of all-weather progress. The bandwagon may simply roll on regardless, leaving the old two-track culture and its traditionalist views in its wake.

If the all-weather tracks do grow in popularity and eventually join, or even surpass the numbers of turf and dirt courses, Meydan will be seen as the pioneer and this the turning point.

But that’s for the future. The problem for Meydan in the here and now is that this vision is a far cry from where we are today.

At present the participation in all-weather racing, particularly at the highest levels, sits a distant third behind turf and dirt. And, as we have seen from the Meydan data, surface matters.

As far as the Meydan management are concerned they should want this track specialism trend to abate. They should have their fingers firmly crossed for a Tapeta debutant to come out on top in the world’s richest race on Saturday, if only to broaden participation.

What they should not want is a repeat of the 2012 World Cup result, which saw unheralded course specialists Monterosso and Capponi run out a 1-2 for the home team against global superstars like So You Think and Game On Dude.

That result proved not that Monterosso was better than So You Think, but that he was better suited to the track. Should that really be the factor that determines the richest race in the world?

There are three possible outcomes in the Dubai World Cup this year, representing the three different surface types.

There are a trio of dirt specialists in the line-up, a number of high quality turf specialists and five horses who have previously won on synthetics.

The best result for the Meydan management, and the future of the Dubai World Cup, would be a success for Wattani (formerly known as Ron The Greek) or one of the Japanese dirt runners.

US dirt horses have been the biggest loss to the World Cup since the change of surface, but a win for Wattani could change all that.

He is set to become just the second US horse not to have won on synthetics to contest the World Cup since 2010. What he does could change perceptions and widen interest in the States, although whether he can win is another matter.

The second and perhaps most likely outcome this year is that one of the turf horses yet to win on synthetics can adapt to the track and outclass the Meydan specialists. Derby winner Ruler Of The World and Hong Kong star Military Attack rank highly in this group.

The third outcome – the synthetics specialists one – would be the worst result for Meydan. This is the direction the statistics have been heading in the first four years on Tapeta, but in 2014 the five previous all-weather winners really shouldn’t be good enough to continue the trend.

With the suspicion that the track specialists will not be good enough, the challenge in the win market is to speculate on which of the classy turf horses will handle the track. If that’s your cup of tea, guess away, but it’s not for me.

It may be safer looking at the bigger odds on synthetics horses like Red Cadeaux (25-1) or Sanshaawes (16-1) to fill the frame.

With a handicapping hat on I’m just eager to find out how the three different groups of specialists will handle the track. No doubt the Meydan team will be pretty interested in that as well.

The rest of the Tapeta races on World Cup night should be dominated, as in recent years, by previous all-weather winners. Hong Kong’s Rich Tapestry is one of those and looks the one to beat in the Golden Shaheen.

The top rated horse at this early stage of the World Class year is Game On Dude (127), who landed a superb renewal of the Santa Anita Handicap from Will Take Charge (125).

The main reason why aiden obrien and the teams from hong kong run in the big race is the money. If the race was on turf then ruler of the world would be a short priced favourite. Its anybodys guess as to whether any of the first three in the betting will handle the track and surface so we will just have to wait and see. red cadeux ew looks the best bet to me.

video replays of the simulcast-to-HK final six races here:

http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/showcase.asp

(change the date back to 29/03/2014)