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By a miler, out of a sprinter who’s by another miler Zip. TGG will (imo) do better at a mile, might and only might (allowing for temperament) get 10f next year. But I’ll give up racing if he proves a "Leger" horse Zip.
How very unlike you: risking a huge sum (giving up your association with horse racing) on a slightly dodgy proposition.
The Grey Gatsby by Mastercraftsman out of Marie Vison By Entrepreneur.
Leger
horse". So (a) Has to stay (b) Needs to be good enough.
Mastercraftsman has his first two year olds this year, so it is too early to judge how much speed or stamina he will impart to his offspring. But he is a Danzig line stallion. The good ones in that line have been spinter/milers on the race track but have a surprisng ability to throw foals with much greater stamina than they had. Mastercraftsman’s grandsire, Danehill, produced Westerner, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, North Light, Desert King, Tiger Hill, Peeping Fawn.
Yes, any sire can throw horses who stay further than he did, and some stallions have a tendency to sire horses that take after the sire for quality and dam for stamina/speed. Almost all those who stay considerably further than the sire have middle distance/staying dams (so not The Grey Gatsby). One you name, Derby winner North Light was by Danehill out of Sought Out, winner of the Prix Du Cadran over two and a half miles. Sorry MV, but do you really think it is Danehill that gave stamina to North Light?His sire, Danehill Dancer produced Planteur, Moatize, Dancing Rain, Ice Queen, Wajir. All these were Group 1 winners over 12 furlongs or more. That’s without counting the loads of other horses who won at secondary Group and Listed level and handicaps.
Although Mastercraftsman ran most of his races over a mile, he did finish a one length second to Sea The Stars in the 10 furlong Juddmonte International and finished a five length third to the same horse in the 10 furlong Irish Champion Stakes.
With Danehill and Danehill Dancer both showing their best form at 6 furlongs I would not be at all surprised to see Mastercraftsman siring horses capable of Group level form over 12 furlongs or more.not
sire horses capable of Group level form over 12f or more MV. But I’d be surprised if he sires a three year old capable of winnning a Group 1 over 1m6f132yrds – unless the dam/dams family is an influence for stamina. But as far as The Grey Gatsby is concerned – dam Marie Vison/her family are more speedy.
Marie Vison ran once at 6f and twice at 8f as as a two year old for Jim Bolger. She was sent to David Smaga in France as a three year old when her best run was second in a Listed race over 8 furlongs on heavy ground at Saint Cloud. Her other races varied in distance from 7 to 10 furlongs.
I am not sure if it is fair to label Entrepreneur as just a miler. He won the 2000 Guineas but then injured himself when finishing fourth in the Derby. He had one other woeful race three months later that just demonstrated that his injury was too much for him to be an effective race horse. His full sister Dance A Dream was a top class stayer, finishing second to Moonshell in The Oaks, after having won the Cheshire Oaks. His full brother Sadler’s Image won three races over 12 furlongs, two of them at Listed level.
Marie Vison’s dam was by Kingmambo who is an influence for stamina despite never having been tried at further than a mile. Of his best offspring, more have been Group 1 winners over 12 furlongs than at shorter distances. El Condor Pasa, Alkaased, Lemon Drop Kid, Rule Of Law, Encke, Light Shift and others, all won Group 1 races at 12 furlongs or more.
However, Rule Of Law was particularly lazy. Improving in a visor to make all in two races including the Acomb at two. Visor replaced with just a tongue strap and stepped up to 10f, second in Dante. Did not return to winning ways until back to front running tactics. Set pedestrian fractions in both Voltigeur and St Leger, can’t really say Rule Of Law "truly" stayed 1m6f132yrds.There may just be enough stamina clues to get you worried.
On the other hand, there is a fair chance that TGG’s lack of ability might save the day.
But the quality angle will probably get TGG too.Another little aside on race-track performance versus stallion- imparted stamina; The St Leger winner Sixties Icon’s ten best offspring so far have accumulated 19 wins, with 15 of them being at 7 furlongs or less. And he is really bred to be a stayer being by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner (Galileo/Love Divine).
It’s a risky business judging bloodstock stamina too early. I really hope we don’t have to wave goodbye to you next September. You could try having a saver on the proposition of “I’ll stay with racing if Toormore wins a Group 1 as a three year old”!Value Is EverythingSorry GT. I didn’t mean to keep you away from your form study for so long. It was just a bit of banter on my part.
On Kingmambo and stamina, much is explained at:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/review.htm
and
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/kingmambo.htm
hence, many essays on the internet including stuff like this, from horseracingnation.com:
“Kingmambo has been a fixture on the leading sire lists, both domestic and internationally. He’s considered one of the best stallions in the world and has sired six champions and over 100 stakes winners. Upon his retirement in 2010, Kingmambo was designated as a Classic/Solid Chef-de-race, certifying that he infuses his progeny with stamina. “
The basis of the Dosage system, identifying Chefs-de-race, and allocating them to five different aptitudinal groups has been around for a long time. Steven Roman in the USA is now the principle driver of keeping it all up to date and intruducing new stallions to the system. The idea is to identify stallions who are preponent in passing on traits relating to speed versus stamina. It is not about identifying “good” stallions. There have been lots of good stallions who are not preponent in consistently imparting a speed/stamina trait on their stock. And obviously it looks at the stallion’s breeding career, not their racing career at all, to decide on their influence on the breed.
If you ever check a horse’s pedigree on pedigreequery.com, you will see, as well as the five generation pedigree, the Dosage Profile, (DP), the Dosage Index (DI), and the Centre of Distribution (CD). These are numerical represenations the horse’s balance of speed and stamina in its pedigree, all explained in the first link above.
It is nowhere near perfect but it is a useful tool.
On 12 furlongs and “stayers”
Twelve furlong horses are now the stayers. Last year, 22 of the top 25 stallions by money won in the UK and Ireland never raced at 12 furlongs or further. This is par for the course in recent years. One of the 12 furlong sires (Montjeu) is now dead. We are already well on the road to USA distance profiles for our top races. Will the St Leger still be 14.6 furlongs for much longer?It used to be commonplace but now it is very rare for Group 1 winners at 12 furlongs to be given the opportunity to race over a longer distance (apart from Camelot attempting the Triple Crown). Twelve furlongs is a cliff; go over and you are dead as far as a flat-race breeding career is concerned. Soon, that might be 10 furlongs. I take the pragmatic view that there are now, and into the forseeable future, no top class horses at was once called the “staying” distances. The days of Hyperion, Ballymoss and Nijinsky are well in the past. An analysis of your recent Timeform Annuals will show you that highly-rated stayers are very thin on the ground compared to shorter runners, and only the mares among them will get the chance to breed.
Today should be very informative Joe regards TGG as distance, ground and hopefully a hell for leather start to finish gallop should all be in his favour.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
A very tame effort from The Grey Gatsby today. He went off 16/1, telling it’s own story regarding his chances. I’m just not seeing the potential others seem to hold for this horse.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Harking back to one of my earlier posts, I’d give him a crack at 5f. He’s built like a classic sprinter.
he looked like he didnt like the soft ground for the first 2 furlongs seemed to be going up and down in the one spot
What did we make of todays effort?
His action still looks like a soft ground horse to me.
I don’t think he had Toormore and Ryan too worried and although looking threating Toormore had another gear in him. A better performance for sure but with Be Ready bombing out not too sure of the calibre in behind.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Just shows how difficult it is for trainers to place horses. Mind you as he is by master craftsman whose best run was a course record second to sea the stars over an extended 10 f it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the horse performed well. Certainly looks like a sprinter but it looks like the French derby next where he wouldn’t be without a chance.
It was a bit odd he went off as high as 9-1 SP for the Dante. He was the clear second best on Timeform rating and had his preferred ground and trip, all with the very best jockey. But it sounds like people had lost faith or regarded him as inconsistent or maybe True Story was though of as too good a thing.
Well it just goes to prove the old saying "Never say die" as The Grey Gatsby showed a clean pair of heels to the French favourites and lifted the French Derby.
A great ride from Ryan Moore, who totally outclassed Gerard Mosse who had the favourite in an impossible position and despite the horse’s good finishing effort the jockey’s head seemed firmly lodged in his derriere (as they say in France)
A boost for True Story fans after needing the Oxygen mask post Dante.
Karakontie was very disappointing and needs dropping back to a mile on that evidence.
Matt Chapman is slevering away as I speak, stating that the jockey was hopeless, then saying it wasn’t necessarily his fault and then going back to saying it was poor jockeyship. In addition The Grey Gatsby was said to have won the race on merit, adding that Price Gibraltar wouldn’t have won anyway, then opining that Prince Gibraltar was the horse to take out of the race and that he wouldn’t be surprised if he won the Arc. Nothing like knowing your mind Matt!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Harking back to one of my earlier posts, I’d give him a crack at 5f. He’s built like a classic sprinter.
I think you might be wrong after today Joe
I hold my hands up and admit I was totally wrong about The Grey Gatsby, he looked exposed to me and after today you have to wonder how good the 2000 Guineas was if he could only finish 10th with his Craven conqueror Toormore only able to take 7th. First and 4th at Newmarket finished 1-2 in the Irish Guineas so it’s encouraging for Australia fans.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Todays performance from
The Grey Gatsby
only confirms yet again the 2000 gns is the best race of the year for collateral form progressing.
Toormore
will run a big race in the St James Palace stakes for sure.8/1 today was an insult for a Dante winner too.
The level in France over 1m2f can’t be poorer (for three-year-old horses)…
It’s a well deserved victory forGatsby
, and even if
Prince Gibraltar
(wouldn’t mind to see him over 1m4f…) seems to be the best of all the beaten horses, that was a very poor french Derby in my opinion.
The German horse was largely beaten in his last race (at Listed level, sorry). Here he managed to take fourth. How could that be possible?
BothKarakontie
and
Prestige Vendome
(the winner and runner-up of the french Guineas) were very disappointing (they got very poor starting positions however…).
I’m getting more and more worried for the future of the French Derby. This race has lost its past prestige. I won’t be surprised if it is downgraded at GII level in years to come.I really think the 2000 Guineas was a very good race…
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