- This topic has 9 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 12 years ago by
.
- Posts
This should have been done before Fred got his hands on the Nanny:
If I had the money once (I believe) Fred’s monopoly of Tote betting ends:
If having the money I’d start my own Tote with far less of an overround than Fred’s 116.5%? and then give all profits to racing.
Computers can do anything nowadays, so why does there have to be the same Tote overround whatever the number of runners? Why not:
Number of runners, Overrounds and Take out per runner:
2 runners = overround of 101% = (1 ‘/, 2 = 0.5) 0.5% take out per runner
3 = 101.5% (1.5 ‘/, 3 = 0.5)
4 = 102%
5 = 102.5%
6 = 103%
7 = 103.5%
8 = 104%
9 = 104.5%
10 = 105% = 0.5 per runner
(all from 2 to 10 runners going up 0.5% per runner)
11 = 105.33%
12 = 105.67%
13 = 106% = 0.4615% per runner
14 = 106.33%
15 = 106.67%
16 = 107% = 0.4375% per runner
(races from 11 to 16 runners going up 0.33 per runner)
17 = 107.25%
18 = 107.5%
19 = 107.75%
20 = 108% = 0.4% per runner
(races from 16 to 20 runners going up 0.25% per runner)
21 = 108.2%
22 = 108.4%
23 = 108.6%
24 = 108.8%
25 = 109% = 0.36 per runner
26 = 109.2%
27 = 109.4%
28 = 109.6%
29 = 109.8% (races from 21 to 29 runners going up 0.2% per runner)
30+ = 110% = 0.33 per runner 30 runners, 0.25% per runner 40 (Grand National).Against these overrounds imo no bookmaker using fixed odds could compete. The mark up meaning no odds compiler would be accurate enough for the bookmaker to profit. Therefore, (apart from exchanges) a Tote monopoly with all profits going to Racing.
Is there a reason why this won’t work (apart from me not having the money to invest)?
Value Is EverythingBut would your profits cover your costs? Wages, insurance, Nat. Insurances, rates, petrol, heating etc and then of course tax .
Ginger, your main problem would be the lack of distribution channels. Far and away, most of the Tote’s turnover comes through its Tote Direct terminals in the shops of all its competitors, for which it pays them a very big slice of commission.
When scoop6 was launched, Tote Direct commission was more than 20% on that bet. I don’t think it’s much different now.
I worked for Tote Direct before joining the Tote itself. I was surprised by the commission rate and I checked with the Aussie TAB to see what theirs was – 2% on all bets across the board. But by this time, the Tote had already committed to the rates and felt they could not alter them.
Go figure – as the Yanks say.
Ginger, your main problem would be the lack of distribution channels. Far and away, most of the Tote’s turnover comes through its Tote Direct terminals in the shops of all its competitors, for which it pays them a very big slice of commission.
When scoop6 was launched, Tote Direct commission was more than 20% on that bet. I don’t think it’s much different now.
I worked for Tote Direct before joining the Tote itself. I was surprised by the commission rate and I checked with the Aussie TAB to see what theirs was – 2% on all bets across the board. But by this time, the Tote had already committed to the rates and felt they could not alter them.
Go figure – as the Yanks say.
Thanks for your input Joe.
I realise that is how the old Tote works. Bookmakers only allow them in because it is seen as uncompetitive.Tote Direct terminals are surely of a byegone age (or will be soon)? I’d also be interested to know how much total horse racing business is done by betting shops compared to newer ways to bet on horse racing? Betting shops now glorified amusement arcades.
Don’t see why a new Tote could not work by using more modern outlets, telephone, text, mobile and internet etc. Currently most punters are put off by uncompetitive Tote prices. If punters knew a new Tote gave them by far the easiest way to profit… then most punters will use these modern outlets to bet… Tote soon becoming THE way to gamble on the horses. Massively increased turnover more than making up for a "smaller" overround… Bookmakers either unable to compete either going out of business or changing to a Tote system themselves. But with "all profits going back in to racing" what punter would use anyone else? Most punters going over to the new Tote or Exchanges.
Value Is EverythingA fixed takeout currently means the Tote often beats bookmakers and exchanges for horses above the 8/1 mark.
Those horses are only value in larger fields, which are sadly becoming things of the past. Your proposal would reduce the value in the large fields that we are told the public like to bet in.Chester, Bangor and Ripon already operate an SP type Tote and give back to racing. Even Betfred Tote has done more than first promised to fund racing. As with all monopolies the costs to punters only go up and up each year.
But it’s a bit like the new Ladbrokes Exchange – something very few have heard of or even consider using because it is not promoted. I vaguely remember the Betfred man posting on here about all the ideas they were soon going to announce to promote the Tote – we are still waiting to hear just one idea some 3 years later.
A fixed takeout currently means the Tote often beats bookmakers and exchanges for horses above the 8/1 mark.
Those horses are only value in larger fields, which are sadly becoming things of the past. Your proposal would reduce the value in the large fields that we are told the public like to bet in.Chester, Bangor and Ripon already operate an SP type Tote and give back to racing. Even Betfred Tote has done more than first promised to fund racing. As with all monopolies the costs to punters only go up and up each year.
But it’s a bit like the new Ladbrokes Exchange – something very few have heard of or even consider using because it is not promoted. I vaguely remember the Betfred man posting on here about all the ideas they were soon going to announce to promote the Tote – we are still waiting to hear just one idea some 3 years later.
I don’t understand Robert.
How do you think my proposal"would reduce the value in the large fields"
when (as I understnd it) the overround currently used by Fred Done is 116.5%?
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/fred-done-abou … eductions/
Under my proposal a field of 21 would have a take out of just 8.2%, which is less than half the current Fred Done take out of 16.5%… And even my maximum field of 40 is just 10%.
The fact current Tote only offers punters value
"in larger fields"
is exactly the reason why I’ve made different overrounds for different sized fields. Current "one percentage fits all sizes" is crazy.
Am sure you know Robert, those in house Totes (presumably Bangor are the same as the other two) are simply SP -10% (ie 10% worse than SP). They may
"give back to racing"
, but also rely on punters either being ignorant of what they are taking or too lazy to take better. Effectively robbing the punter to pay connections etc. with possibly the worst value bet in British Racing.
What I am after here is something that gives the punter an excellent deal/bet whilst still giving back a lot of money to "racing" through a massively increased slice of the cake. It would only be a "monopoly" if such good value for punters no bookmakers are able to compete.
Value Is EverythingIn fact there are low margin totes that compete with the PMU in France and also offer odds on big UK races. e.g. Zeturf. I use Zeturf occasionally for UK races but I think the UK pools are very small so you can’t get a lot on. But for something like the Arc well worth using.
I believe zeturf takes only 5% so no need to be ripped off by Baldfred. And the free bet offers are quite good too.
A fixed takeout currently means the Tote often beats bookmakers and exchanges for horses above the 8/1 mark.
Those horses are only value in larger fields, which are sadly becoming things of the past. Your proposal would reduce the value in the large fields that we are told the public like to bet in.Chester, Bangor and Ripon already operate an SP type Tote and give back to racing. Even Betfred Tote has done more than first promised to fund racing. As with all monopolies the costs to punters only go up and up each year.
But it’s a bit like the new Ladbrokes Exchange – something very few have heard of or even consider using because it is not promoted. I vaguely remember the Betfred man posting on here about all the ideas they were soon going to announce to promote the Tote – we are still waiting to hear just one idea some 3 years later.
I don’t understand Robert.
How do you think my proposal"would reduce the value in the large fields"
when (as I understnd it) the overround currently used by Fred Done is 116.5%?
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/fred-done-abou … eductions/
Under my proposal a field of 21 would have a take out of just 8.2%, which is less than half the current Fred Done take out of 16.5%… And even my maximum field of 40 is just 10%.
The fact current Tote only offers punters value
"in larger fields"
is exactly the reason why I’ve made different overrounds for different sized fields. Current "one percentage fits all sizes" is crazy.
Am sure you know Robert, those in house Totes (presumably Bangor are the same as the other two) are simply SP -10% (ie 10% worse than SP). They may
"give back to racing"
, but also rely on punters either being ignorant of what they are taking or too lazy to take better. Effectively robbing the punter to pay connections etc. with possibly the worst value bet in British Racing.
What I am after here is something that gives the punter an excellent deal/bet whilst still giving back a lot of money to "racing" through a massively increased slice of the cake. It would only be a "monopoly" if such good value for punters no bookmakers are able to compete.
For Tote betting the take out is not so important.
If P = pool
t = takeout %
N = number of winning tickets
R = returnR = P x (1-t/100)/ N
If the pool increased and the takeout reduced the top line might increase by 20%, say, but the key item is the lower line N – the number of winning tickets.
At present, N is tiny as only horse name and professionals go for the Tote value horses not tipped in papers etc.
If lower takeout and better marketing attracted more serious players then N might easily triple, or more and the present value bets would disappear as the market becomes more efficient.
As you confirm about the Ripon Ripoff bet, the courses are not a jot interested in returning anything to punters and their takeout generally just increases – no long term interest just grab the money quick.
To illustrate the point I made a little while ago, the Grey Gatsby went off today at Chantilly at 12-1 SP in the UK but he was 19.9 on the PMU and 21.8 on zeturf. I am not sure what he was on the exchanges but I would guess about 18. Zeturf can be a very good deal for small bets, especially on non-French horses, although it might not be if you want to bet large as you might distort the pool.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.