Derby 2014

The odds for Australia seem a little ridiculous.

What I would like to know is why nobody is talking about Kingston Hill any more?

His win the in Racing Post Trophy was to my eye pretty impressive. And the fact that Grey Gatsby has turned his Guineas form around recently bodes well for KH IMO.

But 14-1

I am not a gambler, but even I feel that is worth a punt!

He’s a sneaking under the radar horse isn’t he? If he gets the trip he’s a player.

I think Australia is a well deserving favourite but should he be odds on? Not for me.

The Derby is usually one of those races that is better being judged after the event but at this stage contrary to some of what you read in the press and hear via the media I think it could be potentially a decent renewal (lets say all stand their ground).

More than once over the last few years it’s been O’Brien horses, maybe another Irish (top) contender and ……………………… where’s the home challenge? This year we have the usual O’Brien squad, Fascinating Rock and then quite a few lightly raced and / or progressive home challengers: Arod, Snow Sky, True Story, Kingston Hill, Western Hymn, Romsdal (if he runs) all are interesting and with legitimate chances. I wouldn’t rule True Story out just because he got beaten in a small field Dante, he has stamina on both sides of his pedigree and is almost sure to see out the trip. With the likes of True Story, Romsdal and Western Hymn you have three horses there who will not fail for stamina. Kingston Hill may or may not stay, the same with Arod and Snow Sky almost certainly will.

Compare this Derby with Camelot’s Derby when the field was atrocious to the point where Main Sequence finished second and to be frank I reckon I could give him a race.

Australia is a very deserving favourite in that I think the third in the Guineas is the best piece of form on offer by some way BUT given that he is still only a G3 winner, O’Brien’s history of hyperbole, he hasn’t proved his stamina and we don’t know if he’ll handle Epsom, together with the fact that there are quite a few unexposed challengers lining up – is he really more likely to win the race than not? I wouldn’t say so. Somewhere around 7/4 – 2/1 I’d say would be a more accurate reflection of his true chance.

I think the fact that Ballydoyle routinely throw a lot of horses into this race suggests that they think it can be quite random. And I think there is quite a lot of luck involved:

1. Horses are lightly raced so form is uncertain
2. Many won’t have run over 1.5 miles before
3. Epsom track is tricky for some and crowds may distract
4. It can be a tactical race not always won by the best horse on the day

Of course there is a random element in all horse races. One might think given the prestige of the race it would somehow be less random than say a grade 6 at Wolverhampton but in fact the opposite is true in my view.

Australia is this year’s Best AOB Has Ever Trained (listen, so much natural class, listen, so much natural speed, listen, listen, listen), and the idea of him being odds on is somewhat ridiculous. Any other trainer, he’d possibly be favourite, but the market would be way more open.

Can’t be doing with GC – you’d have wanted him to do better in the Derrinstown. Talking of that race, FR only won in the Steward’s Room, and I’m not sure Ebanoran would get the trip.

TS should have done better in the Dante,

KH is interesting, but he looks like another who’ll find the trip an ask.

At the moment, I really like the look of Ectot – although I’ll not put a bet down until we know whether he’ll want to run or not.

Going back to AOB, his third/fourth string horses always do well enough. Look at the last few renewals of this race, and there’s always one at a decent sort of each-way price. That makes me think that Orchestra is worth a go.

I also think there’s not much not to like about Western Hymn, unless you think running in a somewhat unfashionable prep race means something.

So, yeah, going to go for Orchestra and Western Hymn, and waiting to see where Ectot’ll run.

I like Orchestra as a specimen, you would think he can only improve again. I doubt that Epsom will play to his strengths though and perhaps the Irish Derby would suit him better. He is probably the horse I would be most interested in backing for The St Leger at this stage.

Western Hymn has done nothing wrong but I just wonder how strong the Gosden stable is now, after their flying start. Some of the runners have performed poorly this past 10 days or so and I am a little wary because of that. I would probably say Orchestra at Ladbrokes stand out price of 20/1 is the best each-way and I think Geoffrey Chaucer is appalling at 10/1.

Kingston Hill was said to be "going under the radar" for the 2000G and I see the term is used again for The Derby. You would think he needs cut in the ground after watching him enjoy the soft in the Racing Post Trophy. Normally you would think a horse who could get a mile at 2yo on really soft ground would get the Derby trip at 3yo but the fact that the stable saw him fast enough to aim at the 2000G is a little bit of a worry. The Grey Gatsby went on to win the Dante but it only needed the fav to under perform in a small field to cast a bit of doubt on the solidity of the form. The second horse Arod went into the race rated 20lbs behind True Story but finished ahead of him. Keiren Fallon has said True Story couldn’t "get hold of the ground" that day but even allowing for Peter Chapple-Hyam’s colt improving it was a disappointing run and I will be surprised if The Grey Gatsby cuts the French Mustard in the Prix De Jockey Club.

Australia doesn’t warrant being the price he is and has contracted in price without doing anything.

Western Hymn had a gallop at Lingfield today. I don’t read a lot into these things as sometimes it is clear that the lead horse is just setting it up for the real McCoy to look impressive. They seemed to go a decent clip today and Western Hymn was rousted to pick up the other horse and come away. He looked awkward though and hung across once in front.

Much was made of his high knee action and the general opinion was that it was not impressive in answering any of the negatives regarding him and Epsom. I had hoped he would have matured out of that tendency but John Gosden seems to think it is just the way the horse has always been and that he looks about when he gets to the front.

Very oddly, John Gosden refused to tell ATR who the lead horse was today. Why the secrecy?

The Timeform guest on ATR told us that Australia is their top rated on 137 with True Story next on 135. In the Oaks they have Veda top at 130 and Taghrooda next on 128p. The Timeform man declared himself a big fan of Taghrooda while Thommo reckons Ihtimal is a shoo in for Epsom.

is there a horse entered called gypsy king or have a read wrong, I swear a number of years ago a horse ran under this name, but was tragically fatally injured in the race?

vf

You’re thinking of Gypsy King I,also from AOB.
Winner of the Dee Stakes,5th to Motivator at Epsom
but broke a leg in the Irish Derby.
Someone must be keen on the name.

That Gypsy King was the one who many fancied and who was later described by one of the racing journalists who had backed him after originally selecting Motivator, as follows:-

"I had Motivator sitting there like a prime salmon served up on a silver salver and I sent him back to the kitchen and had fish fingers instead"

Geoffrey Chaucer is in to as low as 6/1 now. I think that is a grim price but wonder how much of this support is confidence in him and how much might be negative vibes regarding Australia?

Listen, the boys think Geoffrey Chaucer is the best Aidan has trained since Australia.

Same thing happened for the Guineas. Loads of money came in for War Command once his participation was confirmed, with many taking it as a lack of confidence behind Australia. But, obviously, on the day, it was all Australia, and he duly obliged finishing miles ahead of War Command. Wouldn’t want to read too much in the betting pattern once again.

My main worry for Australia is Joseph’s form. I’m one of those who think he’s one of the best young riders out there, but it’s undeniable that he’s been riding very poorly lately. All riders have a dip in confidence once in a while, but it seems that his has been lasting a good three months now. And, picking the wrong horse like he just did yesterday (even though Aiden apparently asked him to ride Marvellous) is hardly going to make things easier going into the Derby on one of the biggest favorites in the race’s history.