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It seems like whatever ballydoyle do they get a lot of flak. Surely now he has said why his yard has made a slow start then it is reasonable to assume that a lot of ballydoyles inmates will improve when they run next time. Also of course you should get a good price on the horses too. Cue somebody saying it’s all a ballydoyle conspiracy. Geoffrey Chaucer ew at 20/1 for the derby. That will do for me.
I’ve also backed Geoffrey Chaucer, but have had settle for 16/1.
Australia has been the subject of massive hype all winter long, being described as the best horse ever to come out of Ballydoyle. However, you don’t need a long memory to similar comments circulating about the likes of Camelot and Rip Van Winkle and many before him, so in my opinion these comment should be taken with a large dose of salt until he goes and does it. He ran an excellent race in at Newmarket, winning the race with those on the near side with a bit to spare. On breeding a mile and a half should bring out the best in him but he travelled so well in the early part of the Guineas that I’m not sure if a step up in trip will bring about a big improvement, like some judges think. That’s not to say he’ll need to improve, as a reproduction of that level of performance will probably see him bang there at the finish. At the stage he’s the one to beat without a doubt but at 5/4 he’s not for me.
Yesterday’s Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial threw up a close finish between him Geoffrey Chaucer, Ebanoran and Fascinating Rock. Abanoran hit the line first but lost the race to Dermot Weld’s Fascinating Rock in the stewards room. Firstly, I wouldn’t fancy Ebanoran to finish ahead of either of the other two should they all meet again at Epsom. Due to a good piece of race riding from Declan McDonagh, who stole a march on Pat Smullen and Joseph O’Brien, Ebanoran was able to get first run on his rivals. I thought Smullen gave Fascinating Rock a poor ride, held up off a slow pace is never the best place to be and he had to depend on a lengthy Steward’s Enquiry before being awarded the race. I suspect that Fascinating Rock is capable of an improved performance when ridden to better effect. However, he travels so well and shows so much speed that I think he could be better over trips of 8f and 10f than a mile and a half. Then again, the saying goes that if you’re certain to stay the Derby trip then your horse is too slow!
I thought
Geoffrey Chaucer
ran a super race in finishing third. He was conceding three pounds to his rivals and endured a troubled passage, but showed enough to make me think he can play a big part at Epsom. He travelled well into the straight but Ebanoran blocked him off when he was mounting his challenge and then drifted across him again in the closing stages. It was a perfectly adequate seasonal reappearance and like most of O’Brien’s I’d expect him to improve for the run. I also expect him to improve for better ground, having won on good to firm as a two year old and his sibling seemed better on a sound surface too. He should appreciate the Derby trip also, winning over eight furlongs at the Curragh last season, looking very strong at the finish.
Aidan O’Brien more or less confirmed Geoffrey Chaucer for Epsom today and I’ve taken 16/1 e/w.
I am not concerned personally by the lack of information from Ballydoyle regarding their slow start. I have been opposing them all apart from the 2yo runners. I just feel it would be nice for punters to know that there was a setback in the yard.
I would probably agree that Geoffrey Chaucer will be the best of the three for Epsom but only because Dermot Weld has been conspicuous by his absence from the track and the race over the years.
ATR stats show just 4 runners and no winners at Epsom in the last 14 years. Aiden O’Brien has a far superior profile in that regard and on that basis his horse is probably a more certain starter.
Looking at the Derrinstown race Fascinating Rock finished to best effect and I would back him to confirm the form over farther at most venues, despite the weight factor and the fact that Geoffrey Chaucer will come on for the run. I am not 100% convinced that the Ballydoyle horse will be at his best over one and a half miles and the fact that his trainer has stated that Australia is the best candidate he has ever had makes me think one would be highly unlikely to collect on the win part of an each way bet at Epsom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Casual Conquest is the only Derby runner I can think of for Dermot Weld in recent years and he finished third as 7/2 fav. A good run to be fair behind New Approach and Tartan Bearer.
You’re probably right about Australia and Geoffrey Chaucer but at the prices I’d much rather take a chance on Geoffrey, who I believe will improve more for the trip than Australia.
I prefer the National Hunt game but it’s impossible not to get excited by the Derby and Royal Ascot, really looking forward to these big meetings.
Casual Conquest is the only Derby runner I can think of for Dermot Weld in recent years and he finished third as 7/2 fav. A good run to be fair behind New Approach and Tartan Bearer.
You’re probably right about Australia and Geoffrey Chaucer but at the prices I’d much rather take a chance on Geoffrey, who I believe will improve more for the trip than Australia.
I prefer the National Hunt game but it’s impossible not to get excited by the Derby and Royal Ascot, really looking forward to these big meetings.
It was a fair enough run from Casual Conquest but it begs the question if Fascinating Rock will turn up on the day given his trainer’s sparse amount of previous attempts.
After being backed in (presumably on the strength of the soft going at York) Kingston Hill misses the Dante and will go straight to Epsom. Roger Varian says the horse doesn’t need to run but with the ground in my favour I would probably have been tempted to give the horse a confidence boost after a respectable but never dangerous run in the 2000 Guineas. Maybe they are a bit afraid of taking on True Story who has been very well backed for Epsom. Personally I don’t see Epsom being Kingston Hill’s bag, particularly on good or faster. The guy I laid 5/1 a place in the 2000 G has asked for the same bet for the Derby and I have accommodated him for a bit of fun and hopefully a few quid too!
Richard Hannon’s Bunker was virtually friendless for the Dante and I saw him at 15/2 at one stage, he’s now 5/2 in Kingston Hill’s absence. Probably the last meaningful piece of the Epsom jigsaw should fall into place shortly, with just the question of which French horses, if any, will turn up remaining.
I can’t wait for the two Epsom Classics to see how my two 33/1 shots perform if they line up. Good luck to all.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The only hope have of those trainers running horses against Australia in the derby is that he shows so much speed that he might not stay 12f. Highly unlikely on his breeding though and Geoffrey Chaucer seems an able no2. Thought he might have run Adelaide instead of kingfisher but that may change.
I backed Geoffrey Chaucer last year but struggling to get too excited after that run.
Yet again before the race O’Brien was talking up the speed factor but the original winner went past him as if he was a two-mile plodder.
Other than Ladbrokes he was shunted out in the Derby market and I suspect his price has only contracted again due to the scarcity of realistic challengers.
If we look at True Story he is now almost only worth a win bet, whereas at 14/1 after his seasonal debut he was each way value. Without doing anything he is now a third of the price he was and it doesn’t matter how much the trainer and Mr Fallon think of him, he still has to make a step up in class and trip on one of the trickiest tracks to adapt to.
True Story was a good winner of the Fielden Stakes but that is a listed race and if you read down a generation of winners of the race you won’t find a Derby winner in the list.
Controversial use of the term Mr Fallon aside, this proved to be pretty sound input.
True Story is now 16/1 for Epsom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
All those with 25 and 33sof Geoffrey Chaucer can almost count their money. Can’t see it not being an Irish trained horse winning the derby with fascinating rock and orchestra in the mix. Of the rest only Kingston hill make any appeal ew.
In a perhaps forlorn hunt for a working mans price, I have settled upon ECTOT who must be overpriced at 25’s if certainly heading for the race.
Top class form over 1m and bred for a step up to the 12f.
I can’t see Karakontie going to Epsom, being trained by Jonathan Pease, who rarely visits these shores. If pushed I would say Ectot is much more likely to go for the French version. I’d certainly choose that option if he were mine.
As Peruvian Chief said it’s hard to see much value now. Those who backed Geoffrey Chaucer, perhaps hoping True Story would disappoint, were rewarded but I can’t see him winning, although a place is certainly possible.
I seem to be alone in thinking Western Hymn has each-way prospects. I took a chance on him early at 33/1 and still think you could do worse than the 14/1 he is with Ladbrokes now. He’ll be one of very few unbeaten colts in the line up come the day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I seem to be alone in thinking Western Hymn has each-way prospects. I took a chance on him early at 33/1 and still think you could do worse than the 14/1 he is with Ladbrokes now. He’ll be one of very few unbeaten colts in the line up come the day.
No Steve I too have backed
Western Hymn
for the Derby at 16/1 with Ladbrokes,of course his Trainer could easily take him out half an hour before the race if he hasn’t had an Ice Cream with chocolate sauce and a flake.
As for this great big well over-rated lump of a horse called ‘True Story’…….Not a prayer of even handling the course never mind about winning.Kieren has lead his supporters right up the garden path with this one.I thought the Dante looked a disappointing race but one review stated the first three home were all still well in the mix for Epsom. They must have seen it very differently to me.
Keiren Fallon wins the 2000G and suddenly everyone is hanging on his every word. Don’t get me wrong, he’s done me plenty favours over the years and he was one of the few jockeys who could get after one from a long way out and drive them into the lead close home. A lot of jockeys tend to hang onto their mounts too long before starting to shovel the coal on. Kieren has had plenty of controversy along with the good times and you can hardly blame him if someone suddenly thinks of him as the "Horse Whisperer". It’s hard to believe that he’s suddenly remembered how to ride a horse and it probably won’t be too long before he hangs up the boots, so it’s sensible to position yourself close to a potential move into a new role that could be a nice little earner. The best of luck to him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve seen odds of 28/1 for a Ballydoyle 1-2-3 in the Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Mr.Fallon wins the Guineas and all is forgiven.Welcome home Kieren, the prodigal son.
The odds for Australia seem a little ridiculous.
What I would like to know is why nobody is talking about Kingston Hill any more?
His win the in Racing Post Trophy was to my eye pretty impressive. And the fact that Grey Gatsby has turned his Guineas form around recently bodes well for KH IMO.
But 14-1
I am not a gambler, but even I feel that is worth a punt!
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