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Cheltenham Gold Cup
25 points @ 11/2 (sportingbet) Imperial Commander
Is 6.6 on betfair.Kauto Star and Denman will both be 11 years old by next years race. Most of that age are on the downgrade. Imperial Commander is only a year younger, but most 10 year olds maintain their form, hasn’t had much racing and improved at 9. Just hope Twister does not over-race or target him too aggressively. Must surely have a better than 15% chance?
Will add my other ante-post bets from last years thread.
Value Is EverythingCheltenham Gold Cup
25 points @ 11/2 (sportingbet) Imperial Commander
Is 6.6 on betfair.Kauto Star and Denman will both be 11 years old by next years race. Most of that age are on the downgrade. Imperial Commander is only a year younger, but most 10 year olds maintain their form, hasn’t had much racing and improved at 9. Just hope Twister does not over-race or target him too aggressively. Must surely have a better than 15% chance?
Will add my other ante-post bets from last years thread.
Changing my staking plan to add more points for value.
So an extra:
13 points @ 5/1 (b365) Imperial CommanderMy staking plan is:
If I believe it has a 22% (7/2) chance of winning it has 22 points at two prices or more above that price (9/2 or greater). Plus 3 points per % difference between my 100% book price and available price (if very confident of evaluating the form correctly). 2 points per % difference if just normal confidence.In this case I believe Imperial Commander currently has a 22% chance of winning. Best odds available now 5/1 (16.7%). 22 – 16.7 = 5.3 x 3 = 15.9 + 22 = Total stake of 37.9 (38) points.
Talking to journalist Peter Thomas at Salisbury (after my original bet), he told me Paddy Brennen believes IC has improved this season.
Value Is EverythingKing George VI
27 points @ 14/1 (sportingbet) Imperial CommanderValue Is EverythingKing George VI
27 points @ 14/1 (sportingbet) Imperial CommanderNo way I’d have him at Kempton. Good Luck
It’s all about the price Nulty.
If he were 5/1 at this stage I would not take it. But 14/1 under-estimates his chance. If Twister is in good form at Christmas (hasn’t been the last two seasons IC has run there) we could see a much better Kempton run.Value Is Everything
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NTD is hell bent on proving everyone wrong. If he wins fist time up he’s certainty to go off at least 2nd fav
Good thinking Ginge.
Can easily lay him for a nice profit if you shose to.
In my view the best time to back Imperial Commander is after it has run in the King George. I expect it to run below form as usual then show his true form at Cheltenham. Last year his price drifted out to 12/1 or thereabouts after the KG.
Thanks Fist.
Sea Pigeon,
Normally bookies would knock out a horse who puts up a sub-standard performance in the King George, agreed. As happened last year. But bookies know what happened last year with IC, running poorly at Christmas before coming back to form with a bang at Cheltenham. Therefore, even if NTD’s horse runs poorly I don’t envisage much of a drift, if any. In fact, if he runs within 10lbs of his best you’d expect a contraction in price.Value Is EverythingOther Ante-Post bets brought forward from last years Thread:
SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE
16 points @ 16/1 (WH)Cue Card
CHAMPION HURDLE
30 points @ 5/1 (SJ)Binocular
CHAMPION CHASE
30 points @ 6/1 (SJ, SKY)Master Minded
Value Is EverythingExplanation of staking
I used to bet in level stakes. But found it mattered less about whether my short priced selections won or lost. Everything depended on how many outsiders won. Obviously with level stakes a punter needs to win ten Even money chances to win the same as one 10/1 shot.
It did not seem right so I changed to betting to win the same amount. But this time it mattered less about the outsiders winning or losing. As I was losing much more on the shorties. Again it did not seem right.
I wanted a staking plan that would enable me to put more on the shorties, as they by and large have a greater chance of winning. Yet win more on the outsiders, as – with less money risked – they deserve to win more money. It occurred to me that anything I believe has double the chance of winning should have double the stake. i.e. Anything I rate as a fair Even money shot (50% chance) gets 50 points staked, something I believe has a fair 3/1 (25%) chance gets 25 points staked, which in turn should have double the stake of one I believe has a fair 7/1 (12.5%) chance (rounded up) 13 points staked, and so on. Less money staked on the bigger prices, yet more money won.However, my stake should also take in to account the amount of value I believe is in the bet. i.e. Something I believe a 20% (fair 4/1) chance, who is available at 6/1 (fair 14.3%) should have more stake than if the top price was only 5/1 (fair 16.7%).
So points are added for amount of value in the bet.
With my 20% chance available at 6/1 (14.3%). Difference being 5.7% (20 – 14.3 = 5.7). Multiplied by 3. So 5.7 x 3 = 17.1. Rounded down (or up).
So anything believed to be a 20% chance who is available at top price 6/1 gets 20 + 17 = 37 points @ 6/1 winning 222 points.Any 20% chance only available at top price 5/1 gets 30 points staked 20 – 16.7 = 3.3 x 3 = 9.9 so 20 + 10 = 30 points @ 5/1 winning 150 points.
For each way bets It is 0.75 x the win only stake. So a 37 point win only bet @ 6/1 becomes 28 points each way @ 6/1.
Anyone who finds it difficult to imagine 37 points (or whatever) staked should just divide by 10. So 37 becomes 3.7 points out of 5.
If I believe the race is a bit difficult to work out I might reduce the value part to 2 x the difference instead of 3. Anything too difficult to work out won’t be a betting race.
Value Is Everything2:25 Down Royal
22 points each way @ 7/1 (b365) China RockKauto Star will probably win, won’t need to be anywhere near his best. But want to be against him at the price with another year on his back and first time up. Not convinced Sizing Europe stays and often finds little. China Rock has already got a win over the Arkle winner this season. Could do with the stable being in a bit better form, but worth the risk at 7/1.
All the others are either of dodgy temperament or off long lay offs or nohwhere near good enough.Value Is Everything3:00 Down Royal
23 points @ 7/1 (T) Roberto Goldback
9 points @ 11/4 (T) PandoramaValue Is EverythingResults.
2:25 Down Royal
China Rock lost out in a battle for second. Bit surprised Sizing Europe stayed the trip.
-44 points3:00 Down Royal
Pandorama non-runner.
Roberta Goldback 2nd
Shame Pandorama was a late withdrawl, otherwise Roberta would’ve been an each way bet.
-23 pointsDays Deficit 67 points
Total Deficit 67 points(will add ante-post bets in when they run)
Value Is EverythingMorgiana Hurdle
45 points @ 15/8 (b365) Solwhit
12 points @ 4/1 (SJ) Donnas PalmPaddy Power Gold Cup
15 points each way @ 25/1 (L) The SawyerValue Is EverythingSUPREME NOVICES HURDLE
16 points @ 16/1 (WH)Cue Card
16/1 Cue Card looks a good bet for the Supreme now.
Or does it?
May be it is too good.
Might he go for the Champion Hurdle?
Will have to consider laying him back if I can do it at less than 3/1.Value Is EverythingPaddy Power Gold Cup
15 points each way @ 25/1 (L) The SawyerOops!
The Sawyer now available at 37/1 on betfair. The expected rain has not come. So…2:35 Cheltenham
17 points @ 14.5/1 (betfair) Sunninghillboy
20 points @ 9/1 (WH) Mad Max
8 points @ 39/1 Gwanako (betfair)
3 points @ 28/1 Finger On The Pulse (betfair)Value Is Everything
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