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The pros always like to back their selections in the lastest second if possible because they don’t want to be seen.
This may well be true Froddo but it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Waiting till the last minute is risky if your information leaks before then. I guess there is most liquidity just before a race but you might be less likely to be ‘seen’ if you bet steadily throughout the day in small amounts.
I see that the 5.00 at Wolves was passed off as ‘hedging’ and definitely not market manipulation in today’s Post.
Are you talking about the one won by the 50-1 shot Needwood Ridge?
I had some morning money on Sim Sala Bim at BOG odds against and noticed he steamed in to odds on. Are you referring to this? If so then BOG does provide some protection in these cases (if the steamer wins).In general I find the SPs a bit suspicious but apparently the SP overround has fallen with the influence of exchanges.
One thing I have noticed is there seems to be a tendency for the odds of the morning favourites to steam in while the outsiders drift further out as we get close to the start. So backing favourites at early prices (with or without BOG) might be a profitable strategy, especially if they are strong favourites with small relative overrounds.
Call me a nerd if you like but I was working on the Black Scholes formula for BOG last night.
After very preliminary research, I reckon BOG is worth about 4% for a typical morning price on a favourite. So if a horse is truly evens (50% chance) in the morning then it would be worth backing down to 52% (50 + 0.04 x50) or 1.92 or 10/11 with a BOG.
BOG is more valuable the earlier you get on and the more volatile the likely odds, so good if you think that insiders will move the price in the last half hour but you are not sure which way they will go.
To be fair to the handcappers, it’s pretty clear from statements they have made that they are trying to mitigate the tendency of horses at the top of the handicap winning more than their fair share. In the past they haven’t changed weights aggressively enough in response to good or bad runs and this has created the well-known tendency of higher weights to outperform lower weights. Now they are rectifying the situation.
However, it seems a very crude process, open to exploitation. I don’t understand why they can’t apply a bit of common sense. For example I think it would be reasonable for them to treat a poor run from a Grayson-trained animal differently from a Curley-trained one. Until the handicappers allow themselves a bit of leeway from their strict weights and lengths approach they will be prey to all sorts of shenanigans.
What happens to each way bets if you don’t get enough finishers? If for example there are three places available but only 2 horses finish is the third place allotted to the one who got round furthest before giving up? I thought there were only 2 finishers in this race on the TV so I don’t know how the third place was decided.
I am not sure what to make of recent comments about it being the wrong time of year for Diamond Harry. Surely the trainer would have noticed this being an issue when he was younger? I know horses’ coats vary with the time of the year but I didn’t think this made them run much faster or slower. But still it seems to be a genuine opinion and DH has drifted badly.
Perhaps if there are any other seasonal horses out there somebody could let me know.
I’m with Hippo on this one. It’s a fascinating story and adds to the rich tapestry of racing. There’s no ‘problem’ as such and nobody is suggesting sharp practice but the circumstances are rather mysterious. Mr Clutterbuck, who has done absolutely nothing wrong, sounds like somebody out of a Dickens novel and the horse has rather an odd name as well.
However, looking back at the horse’s record, I suppose it could have been spotted that it might have had a chance in a class 7 0-50 race when it was once rated above 70 in sprints.
I am a bit puzzled by the Nicholls penchant for breathing ops. Denman has never seemed to have a problem and What a Friend doesn’t seem to have been helped much by his op. I don’t see it as a reason to be bullish on Denman.
I have to say I am beginning to like these fishy runners. I tend to play them by backing them when the betfair odds slip just below the bookmaker odds. This is often a sign of insider activity. I try to get a BOG as well in case the horse drifts later on. The BOG is most favourable I find at odds of around evens to 2-1. The overround on short-priced runners is relatively small which is good and the odds can still swing around between 4/6 and 3-1 so the BOG is often valuable.
I did some initial research on age using the Adrian Massey website.
There seems to be no obvious large disadvantage from backing older horses in jump races. However, the most remarkable thing about the data was the massive decline in participation as horses get older. Once horses get over 10, they drop out quickly as age and injury catch up with them and they retire or die.A slightly odd result I thought, given it looked like it was going to be close between the top 3 in the betting. Overturn and Silvy seemed well beaten and their odds for the Champion Hurdle have shot up. I haven’t heard any excuses so that seems to be it. Two good horses now not up to the standard required whereas this morning they were thought to be live outsiders for the CH.
I don’t think winning a tactical three horse race tells us very much. I’m not convinced he’s any better than the other mid-priced horses like Mille Chief and Oscar Whisky. It’s conceivable but unlikely in my opinion. I reckon 25-1 for the Champion Hurdle would be about right.
Hills have been very good in my experience but other bookmakers do make mistakes. I had one winning bet settled at 13/2 rather than 13/8, some winning bets recorded as losers, some each way bets place terms wrongly worked out, a £1000 mystery credit on a spread bet I never did and various other bits and bobs over the years.
It pays to check.
I had a bit on Mush Mir after Maxilon 5 recommended Southwell favs. It didn’t work the other day when a lot of odds on favs got turned over but I am persisting with the strategy for technical reasons outlined below.
I think the BOG that some firms offer is particularly valuable for favourites in all weather races because the SP is similar to the exchange odds usually and the insiders move the market around between the early prices and the off so you can get some benefit from the volatility.
What about Weird Al for this? I notice he is back in training now after his larynx op and his odds were on a par with Diamond Harry’s for the Hennessy. So maybe worth a long odds punt.
As well as all the good advice above, I would recommend you fully understand the maths of probability. Not everybody does.
Each way betting is usually not a good idea unless there are special circumstances yet I often see posters recommending e/w bets when it is obvious they are poor value compared with exchange place prices.
Also make the most of free bets. You can get about £500 just from these. If you understand the maths you will realise that it is better to use free bet money on 10-1 shots rather than even money shots.
