- This topic has 24 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 2 months ago by
.
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A question that often crops up these days is whether you should take an exchange price or a lower Best Odds Guaranteed price. This has been brought into focus by Corals offering you the option of a plain vanilla price or a lower BOG price about the same horse.
Which is the better play in the long run you ask? Fear not, for I have the formula to work it out, the Black-Scholes formula:
Key:
C is the consultancy fee paid to Lord Donoghue
N is the increased chance of being on a non-trier every time your price increases
T is the number of tramps in attendance
t is the number of trilateral price fixers in attendance
S is for the supposedly secrect starting price sample strangely slipping into the hands of the trilateral price fixers
K is an interactive variable that comes into play if the race is at Kempton Park, meaning you are taking the natural log of infinity and basically just get error messages, just like the bookies boards every time they try to increase the price of a horse there
D is Donoghue’s restaurant bills
r is the rule 4 adjustment made after the tramps have seen a horse collapse in the stalls and swiftly clip its odds to the next bracket down
Applying this formula to yesterday’s 5.00 at Wolver, where there were three tramps and three trilaterals, we can see the concession was worth twice the square root of feck all.
Happy Punting!
That formula only works if the angle of dangle is 38 degrees and the Moon is in Leo.
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysGreat post, Glenn.
Brought a smile to my face, something that takes some doing these days (feeling very sorry for myself today
)This forum will never die with posters such as you on here.
Colin
Sir , I believe your bat phone is ringing …..Mr Struthers has a proposition for you …..high profile number …downside …its based in Kempton Park
Keep em coming
Ricky
Great post, Glenn.
Brought a smile to my face, something that takes some doing these days (feeling very sorry for myself today
)This forum will never die with posters such as you on here.
Colin
Bring out your dead
… bring out your dead ! Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
what happened to your minions ?
There is little doubt that myself Anikin and
the anti-hero Pierse (Davis Marshall)
so often steered in the wake of Betfair
as we blinked the medals and weaponry
on the faster vessel.Glenn (devilfish) Gary, Laurence (Ghengis) and
below deck Duncan Disorderli who was decorated
a little later than the rest,
all helped to keep the monster ship
a floating force.
I don’t think one can put a value on their worth
in realising Bert’s dream of a global
betting exchange.Bert finally left the ship to form a farm.
You can’t sail for ever can you ?
- Total Posts 17716
BOG is the best of currently advertised bookie’s price and SP.
You can’t lose.
But the BF price is likely to be better than both, is n’t it ?
You can’t tell with precision, but do this for some races:g = 1 – 1 / sum of reciprocal prices
the lower the value of g, the better.
Deduct 5% commission on bf net winnings (or whatever your percentage is as a regular punter).- Total Posts 17716
Give it a rest, Glenn. Just for once.
Apologies to Anakin
I rather got
your name wrong there boy.Sorry to interrupt the mathematical junket
but history has far more importance than
eee = my g guts’ squaredColin great to see you about
and I very much liked your
this forum will never die line.Sometimes death is a mercy
Mark my words
In ten years time only a handful of you
will still be scratching the keys
think back to the year 2000
how many of you are left.
Jim, Pewter, Escorial, Nore, Zass ?Matron – put your hand down !
One more for pseuds corner ?
Oh good !
"The Moving Finger writes: and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it."Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Call me a nerd if you like but I was working on the Black Scholes formula for BOG last night.
After very preliminary research, I reckon BOG is worth about 4% for a typical morning price on a favourite. So if a horse is truly evens (50% chance) in the morning then it would be worth backing down to 52% (50 + 0.04 x50) or 1.92 or 10/11 with a BOG.
BOG is more valuable the earlier you get on and the more volatile the likely odds, so good if you think that insiders will move the price in the last half hour but you are not sure which way they will go.
I see that the 5.00 at Wolves was passed off as ‘hedging’ and definitely not market manipulation in today’s Post.
So, a horse my firm has liabilities on is available to money at 2/1. I then walk past the opportunity to take the 2/1 in order to avail myself of an even £300 with a bookmaker who has the ability to immediately and simultaneously avail himself of the £400-£200 I mysteriously passed over.
There is an understanding between myself and the bookie I took evens with that, if he wants my future business, he must cut the price of the horse on his board and under no circumstances increase it thereafter no matter what subsequently happens.
How can this transaction be construed as anything other than having two constituent parts: a bet of £400-£200 and a bribe of £100?
I see that the 5.00 at Wolves was passed off as ‘hedging’ and definitely not market manipulation in today’s Post.
Are you talking about the one won by the 50-1 shot Needwood Ridge?
I had some morning money on Sim Sala Bim at BOG odds against and noticed he steamed in to odds on. Are you referring to this? If so then BOG does provide some protection in these cases (if the steamer wins).In general I find the SPs a bit suspicious but apparently the SP overround has fallen with the influence of exchanges.
One thing I have noticed is there seems to be a tendency for the odds of the morning favourites to steam in while the outsiders drift further out as we get close to the start. So backing favourites at early prices (with or without BOG) might be a profitable strategy, especially if they are strong favourites with small relative overrounds.
- Total Posts 17716
In my experience early trends are misleading more often than not.
You see an -estimated- 5000 euro bet and it turns out to be garbage.
The significant trends are from one minute to the off.Sometimes we become witness to the "lemmings effect" that is everyone is following a false trend, especially where it concerns popular trainers/jockeys.
When you see a trend developing and that trend takes new speed in the last minute then the chances are very good. The price drops no doubt but it’s a near certainty of sorts.
One should be able to know in advance if a price is as expected or not. You should not be deterred from backing a rank outsider you fancy because the others are not backing it. If everyone backed then what sort of outsider is it ?
The pros always like to back their selections in the lastest second if possible because they don’t want to be seen.
These things are true of horse racing only.
I don’t believe in soccer trends – they don’t exist.
)
… bring out your dead ! 
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