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Afternoon All,
I haven’t been able to drop in much since i first joined last
year.. work commitments and new family members put paid to my
limited gambling adventures. As things have calmed down a bit
and with Chelt just around the corner along with my annual trip to Aintree i decided to jump in.
It seems to be business as usual and the best place for honest and insightful info and pointers. I look forward to dipping my
toe in once every evening when i get the opportunity.Enough already you say…
My question is this… How do i become a better student of the game? I know one end of a hore from another, how to read a racecard and the usual horses for courses type of stuff.
Would really like to learn more about ratings, running horses in hurdles as againt chases etc.. Type of bets to place..
Basically start from the beginnng and build my knowledge and awareness. My interest would lay with National Hunt over the flat.My goal is to become a better backer of horses and base my
betting decisions more on my own knowledge rather than tips and
systems (not that these are always bad things). I’m fed up being a "Mug Punter" the type of guy PP loves to see coming. Would love to be in a position to start from scratch and build up a war chest
over the course of a season to fund nice campaigns at Chelt and
Aintree.Any pointers to books/webites would be much appreciated or even
better would be to hear how you served your apprenticeships.Apologies if this question has been asked before and if there are aleady threads to that end.. please direct me.
Many Thanks
SS
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First of all welcome,
I’d start of by getting to the racecourse and getting an understanding of how long an actual furlong is this will be vital if you’re going to be reading form because it’s more than just a number. When you’re there try and pick up as many betting clues as you can, look at the trainer and jockey combos of those that are being backed, get to grips of what a horse looks like coming under pressure during a race, what sort of horse looks eager, what horse is travellin on the bridle etc.
You have to understand the basics, it’s vital you know how a horse lives and what makes them develop, also try to get an understand of how trainers bring their horses along and what routes they normally take because it’ll be easier to profile a horse then for example; Mark Johnston has an American bred from Keenland sales which is quite expensive with an old sturdy pedigree of handicapers it’ll be run in maidens without a hope of winning on sharp tracks and surfaces not to suit so the horse can be built up a little stronger then finds himself off a mark of 60 in a handicap where he can progress against more exposed types, just because it’s form is 900 doesn’t always mean its useless but depends on the trainer and how they work (John Dunlop is very much the same). You take Stoute who gets well bred horses sent to him who rarely need less than a mile but will probably only feature once on a racecourse normally in a tell tell race (back end maidens or a race with a well spoken of horse in newmarket) because he’ll be able to picture what he has to work with next year and to give his horse expierance probably only half wound up doing light work at home then start them of as a 3 year old.
Just a few examples there but then you have to understand what type of horse it takes to win a race, would you know the characteristics needed to win a Derby? a Guineas? a 5 runner claimer round Kempton or a 16 runner class 5 at Southwell. Are you fully aware of jockeys styles, are you aware that some jockeys have uncanny useless statistcs with certian trainers than others, try and latch onto promising claimers if you can.
Can you interpret form, what would a race 2 years ago have in common with todays race, is the horse the same or is it just coincidence he’s droped 30lbs in 2 years. What form should you look at to judge todays race, if a horse has had 50 runs then you need to be able to profile him/her and see if they have a good chances to day when wieghing up the possbilites of winning. The recent form, there is nothing more solid than horses coming out and winning to frank the form, look at what form a horse was coming into the race and assess the strength of things, check market support and check the first half of the field that came home were meeting their conditions like ground/trip also wieght only really matters in races 10f+.
Do you know how to spot a horse with future engagements in mind, drifting in the market? look at horses who are racing prominantly then drop away like a bomb or horses who uncannily meet trouble in running with the jockey refusing to take the common sense route or giving his horse too much to do i.e trying to find 20 lengths on the winner in 3 furlongs.
When watching replays take notes of horses that catch your eye, can you tell a fast finisher against a tired horse from a fast finisher against a horse full of running, the first option the horses are normally false priced next time out. Look at the race and see what horses are comfortable, some like a slow pace some like a fast pace.
Can you spot a fast race from a slow race, do you know how to interpret what a fast race means? if a horse wins a slow run race by 10 lengths is he better than a horse who’se won a 20 runner handicap by a neck? no, again it’s the principle of understanding what a horse has shown, the 10 length winner has a decent turn of foot but may be absolute useless when going off as 5/4 favourite in a 12 runner race next time out when invairably their rushed of their feet, good example last year is Tagseed for William Haggas and Bullwhip for John Gosden.
I havent got onto the mindest of punters yet, you’re battling with each other forget the bookmakers because their just the middle man, what you have to fight a long battle of getting value for money – can you miss a few 5/4 winners to land a 20/1 winner, as Dave Nevison said "You back 6/4 shots when they should be 2/1, yes you’ll have your winners but you’ll eventually go skint"
Patience is the key, wait and bide your time because racing goes on forever but silly punters don’t – play with a bank that’s within your means and take it easy dont let a bad ride or bad day get the better of you and if you can overcome this you’ve won half the battle as I know some people with 20 years expierance who are the best judges around but without financial discipline they’ve always taken bad hits.
If you want to win then it’s a 12 hour a day job minimum, I’ve probably profiled around 6,000 horses in 2 years and know what makes them tick and yes it’s a temptation to back them when they reappear but you have to wait for the right race, I can miss a winner can you?. Remember it’s a marathon not a sprint, try and create you’re own niche because its the only thing that will give you confidence and believe you can win in the long run because its your system, your choice and your profits. There is loads of websites out there to help you with statistics if you need them, a few people worth listening to are James Willoguby, Tom Segal and Steve Mellis those 3 really know their stuff from a speed angle to a value angle and then one whose just a shrewd every day punter that has bags of expierance.
Of course you have to go out and try find people you believe say the right things that are along the same lines as you’re thinking, use websites like mine to maybe get a little bit more information on a recent winner, why he won and what he could be capeable off – remember its all about knowledge, the more you have the more you’ll be in control of the market and youre value.
There is so much more I can tell you as i’ve just breezed through some of the highlights in studying racing but can’t be bother at hte minute to add more, too busy – i;ll prob come back in here later but drop me a PM,
Easy
Watch it , go to it , study it , read it , and do so with an imaginary bank …….
DO NOT BET ON IT ……for 12 months , until you have got your bearings
Set aside some money each week /Month so at the end of the year , you have a bank to start with ….this money is lost , gone , and you can afford it …..NEVER bet with money you cannot afford to lose
Get Hold of Alan Potts books …the fundamentals are timeless , and he posts on this site , is always open to a good question
Enjoy
Ricky
Patience is the key, wait and bide your time because racing goes on forever but silly punters don’t – play with a bank that’s within your means and take it easy dont let a bad ride or bad day get the better of you and if you can overcome this you’ve won half the battle
This is excellent advice. Having lost my (amateur) bank in October I learnt this the hard way
. Since then, personally I have learnt not to chase winners and the difference to my weekly profits has been staggering.You cannot bet on every race or even every day! What Mr Wilson says about finding your niche is sound advice. For example, I never do maidens, juvenile hurdles or beginners chases. However, there are wonderful tipsters like Hugh Taylor who make their living by and large from low class fare on all-weather surfaces. Take a bit of time and keep track of the bets you are making. Note the the types of bet that were successful and unsuccessful.
SoapStar, check your new messages (top-right of page), I’ve sent you a few suggestions.
Colin
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I’ve been punting for over 40 years and for the first 10 of those years I probably lost more than some people earn in a lifetime. I dare say nothing would have changed much but I moved home and started riding as a hobby and within a year was riding out for a well known stable every morning. I ended up spending half my life in the company of jockey’s trainers and horses and it still took another 10 years before the penny finally dropped and I started making money out of racing and actually owning a few horses myself. I recently built a house in the far east and named it "Zarkava" I only work when I feel like it, live in the sun and life couldn’t be better..mostly all of it came from racing.
It all sounds great but there’s a major drawback for you to get anywhere near that stage you are going to lose fortunes getting there and perhaps more. There are no short cuts in this game
.To be honest the best advice on here is Ricky’s. You really should do exactly what he says. Let’s face it if you are going to be successful and make money you have the rest of your life to do it…..why risk even a fiver at this juncture?
You obviously don’t have much confidence about your ability to make it pay, so why risk your hard earned cash just yet?
What Mr. Wilson is saying is all well and fine but all that talk is no substitute for learning as you go and finding out what really works for you. All that lot will do is totally confuse you. Anyone can tell you it’s easier to pick the winner of a novice hurdle than it is to pick the winner of the Grand National….ask them to pick you 3 consecutive winners and they’ll fall flat on their a$$….talk is cheap mate do what Ricky says and teach yourself how to make it pay FOR FREE and don’t listen to anyone else because most of them probably don’t have two brass pennies to rub together because they lost it all gambling
.If I was forced to give you advice apart from take up another hobby I would say watch as many races as you can in a day and if you fancy one strongly and your max bet is 10 quid then put you 10 quid on whether it’s 100/1 or 1/3 other than that do your own thing.
I recently built a house in the far east and named it "Zarkava" I only work when I feel like it, live in the sun and life couldn’t be better..mostly all of it came from racing.
Funniest line i have read on here that!
If you take the time to go through your wagers on here you are actually showing a loss of just under a Million pounds! Did you build "Zarkava" on top of "Canford Cliffs" next door to "St Nicholas Abbey"? Mind you that was 2 years ago,i guess you are living in a bamboo hut on a beach near Phuket,pronounced F*ckit these days Fist :lol
I just have a lucky Pin Soapstar!
You could start by reading the Racing Post online every day – most of it’s free – and then whenever you can’t understand something you can ask on here.
I’d also recommend going racing as often as time allows – either under rules or to a local point to point – as that will give you lots of ideas.
As regards betting you’ll find better correspondents on here than me (although my nap on ATR did win yesterday!) but I agree with the people who say start with a niche. I love hunter chases and amateur rider events where jockeyship is key. I don’t bet in handicaps at all.
100% agree – find a niche, whether that’s a particular class of race, a particular course or trainer/jockey combo. You will already have a "feel" for what comes naturally versus what you find difficult. For now don’t overcomplicate things, focus your time on where you feel comfortable. Analyse why you do well in a particular area and progress from there. Look towards the top trainers and jockeys, focus on those who are doing very well this season/this month. Oppose those that are peforming below par.
Look for reasons why the favourite can’t win – if you come up with a few then look to oppose it, e.g ground, trip, trainer form etc. I would recommend starting with small field graded races, take the Game Spirit Chase tomorrow for example. I can’t have French Opera tomorrow after the way he ran lto – is there one that can beat him that’s maybe 2/3 points bigger? Was it just the soft ground lto that beat him? Can he reverse the form with the others that ran in the same race? Is he making the market for some of the other runners?
Focus on the classier races where the form is more solid and stands up.
Don’t believe the hype. If the game was that easy we’d all be winning!! Be "Against the Crowd".
If you are drawn to big field handicaps (most of us can’t resist) back two horses to win rather than one horse each way. If I have my maths correct £10 win on a 6/4 shot pays the same as £5 e/w on a 20/1 shot. I’d rather split my £10 equally on 2 horses to win in the same race.
Focus on the classier handicaps, again where the market is reasonably accurate. For example in the TGT tomorrow look at the first 6 in the betting – who is your choice out of the front 6?
If none of them have the "ideal" profile for the race consider the next 6 in the betting. Analyse why these horses are not further up the betting – did they run badly lto? Are they from a smaller yard and not from Nicholls/Henderson etc?Look to young improvers over older horses when analysing chases. Imperial Commander vs Kauto Star being the classic example in the GC last year.
Good Luck….
Watching as many races as time allows is critical, your own eyes never lie. Don’t try to bet on too many races, pick only the races where you are familiar with most if not all of the field, I tend to avoid large fields per se, all weather, maidens and low grade racing generally.
You will gradually find which type of betting suits you, I generally only look front end of the market, betting mainly on the first 1-3 and mostly favourites but the key is picking the right favourites if that doesn’t sound too obvious, picking short priced favourites in the right races and doubling them and trebling them can be a way to profit, you do need to start with a decent bank always to make a profit but particularly with this ‘method’.
Unless you’ve got almost unlimited time (which if you have a full time job and kids you most certainly haven’t) to study form or a degree of inside info it’s difficult to pick the longer priced winners with enough regularity (in my experince anyway).
As almost everyone has said, find your niche to what suits your life/budget etc.
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I recently built a house in the far east and named it "Zarkava" I only work when I feel like it, live in the sun and life couldn’t be better..mostly all of it came from racing.
Funniest line i have read on here that!
If you take the time to go through your wagers on here you are actually showing a loss of just under a Million pounds! Did you build "Zarkava" on top of "Canford Cliffs" next door to "St Nicholas Abbey"? Mind you that was 2 years ago,i guess you are living in a bamboo hut on a beach near Phuket,pronounced F*ckit these days Fist :lol
I just have a lucky Pin Soapstar!Never knew you had another life……who is this?
Never knew you had another life……who is this?
"The Ante-Post King,Prophet of profit" eh some sneaky git has pinched both my titles and they tip football bets,it certainly isn"t me!
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Suuuuuuuuuuuuure!!!:lol: Suuuuuuuuuuuuure!!!
Defineately not me Fist but its more than coincidence! Its me in the Wimpey advert though!
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Another thread ruined, it’s getting bloody tedius now.
You’ve become like Yosemite Sam in the bugs bunny cartoons Mr.W.
You come across as being desperate for attention and he’s overshadowing your. Any time he posts on here,anyone gets the impression you have veins popping in your neck, steam coming out your ears, eyes bloodshot with rage. It didn’t stop you challenging him to a duel (cringeworthy at best) on the notebooks page, and hounding him unjustly all over the main page.
Time to act your age. He has as much right to post any subject as you or I, learn to live with it.
. Since then, personally I have learnt not to chase winners and the difference to my weekly profits has been staggering.
.
If you take the time to go through your wagers on here you are actually showing a loss of just under a Million pounds! 
Did you build "Zarkava" on top of "Canford Cliffs" next door to "St Nicholas Abbey"? 
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