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Never knew you had another life……who is this?
"The Ante-Post King,Prophet of profit" eh some sneaky git has pinched both my titles and they tip football bets,it certainly isn"t me!
Mr Wilson,if you read the thread you can see clearly i am merely responding to Fists question.Where have i ever advertised my private tipping lines on here?when have i ever suggested to anyone on here to join them? And when have i even hinted that i do the above? Never! You by your own admission is the most hated contributor on here,i am probably the 2nd most hated,ask yourself why?
To answer the original question:
The thing that improved my racing knowledge tremendously was buying form books from an organisation that knows how to race read. Namely, Timeform.
Learning how things like pace and temperament effect a race sometimes as much as going and distance.
Now I feel confident enough about my racing brain to take on The Racing Post, Raceform, trainers, jockeys etc. in a Racing team Quiz once a year.
This year our West Berkshire Racing Club team of four lost by a single point to the Racing Post.
Value Is EverythingAs well as all the good advice above, I would recommend you fully understand the maths of probability. Not everybody does.
Each way betting is usually not a good idea unless there are special circumstances yet I often see posters recommending e/w bets when it is obvious they are poor value compared with exchange place prices.
Also make the most of free bets. You can get about £500 just from these. If you understand the maths you will realise that it is better to use free bet money on 10-1 shots rather than even money shots.
Gingertipster and others,
What other information sources do you use – whether free or fee based, web or paper? I use to be a regular Racing Post reader but not so often now. I do use their website alongside ATR but don’t really feel either 100% suits my needs. I also have RUK but confess to not watching it that often – especially during the winter. In fact I’m tempted to go for the web based product only and save myself £120 per year.
Has anyone used any of the Raceform Products? They seem pretty expensive. Are their products more for the pro punters with more time on their hands?
My bettting is primarily trends/stats based, studying the weekend racing and the festivals so I’m not sure if investing in any of the Raceform products would be cost effective.
Any recommendations for other info sources out there in the market? I envy those guys with blogs who quote trends and stats re particular races and horses – is it simply a case of hard work on their behalf or are there cost effective products that I don’t know about and you guys rate? I really don’t want to be sweating over my PC after 8/9 hours at work during the day so paper based products may suit me better – but then again electronic products contain far more info!
The reason I ask is because after a cracking Cheltenham in 2010 my betting went downhill the remainder of the year. I used the Paul Jones Weatherby’s guide as a starting point alongside the Raceform guide (£2.99) and found these cracking tools. I’m looking for similar tools year round.
I’m also thinking of changing my approach which can be very much day of race based. I’m looking to see if I can focus more long term, e.g start looking at the Lincoln/Grand National now (and only betting where I see value) rather than betting simply because its the weekend – which is what the bookies love!
Be interested to learn more about you guys modus operandi and the tools you use. I’d be interested to learn about how people organise their betting and study given time contraints etc. I’m sure the OP would benefit too.
Thanks,
As Kasparov says, knowing percentages as odds and vice versa is vitally important for punters.
The problem with using trends is that it does not allow for fair value. If the trends say a horse has the best chance of winning; does not make it a good bet. Everything should depend on price. A horse that is the TRENDS CHOICE yet is NOT fair value should NOT be backed. Where as one the trends suggest has LITTLE chance, yet is GOOD value SHOULD be backed.
Occasionally a new trend will come along that will show a ptofit for a period of time, because it may be something the market has not allowed enough for. However, when the "trend" becomes well known; the average price acvailable is reduced, yet strike rate remains the same. So a loss will eventually be made.
Value Is EverythingAgree with that Gingertipster – trends should be a guide not a fixation. Sorry just reread my post again – I should have backed up the bit about trends/stats by stating that formbook study should go hand in hand. Some trends are pure common sense, some are just waiting to be broken! Where I like to focus is on age, weight carried, official rating, trainer patterns, key races etc. Rather than trends you could call it logic.
I gave an example earlier about how I favoured IC for the Gold Cup last year. This was based on his age, his Cheltenham record and the fact he goes well fresh. Allied to that KS and Denman were not getting any younger. IC needed to improve but I thought he had it in him to do so, therefore at 8/1 or so I felt he was value. This year it’s actually the reverse – I was tempted by KS for the GC after the King George when he was 12/1. He’s still good enough to win a GC especially on good ground However now he’s 8/1 I don’t feel he’s value and I’ll let him pass for now.
Hopefully above example gives you an insight into how my mind works – the difficulty I find is applying the same logic week in week out. By writing it down on this thread it actually helps me think more rationally and understand my thought process!
I hope it helps others too.
Morning All,
Thank you for all your replys and advice.. I haven’t been
on since my OP and had promised myself I wouldn’t login
durind work(I’m weak). Will read all tonight when I have a
minute to myself.Thanks again,
SS.
- Total Posts 17716
25,000 hrs + £50,000 = a good start.
As others have already stated a lot of patience is required and there are no shortcuts. You must know the percentages. Find your niche. There’s no guarantee you’ll ever be self sufficient and profitable. Best of luck.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Simple probability theory on making bets. But you should always tend towards the safe side to avoid getting killed by a string of losses, and to account for flaws in your analyses
- Total Posts 17716
Hello
That’s one of my pet horse racing projects.
I wish I could start my own classes.
I wish people knew more about horse racing.
Let me startle you with some observations of mine, and I believe you are likely to have experienced the same.First observation. Go to the busiest bus stop in town with a mick and tape recorder and say you are a from the local radio station. If you ask the people about coming Saturday’s footie matches, you are gong to get a lot of sensible replies. Perhaps one out of two. If you ask about the races you will probably get none.
Second observation. Because we are all soccer fans, and we learned the rules at the age of 8-9, how much better are we now in guessing the outcome of football matches than back then, when we were 9 ? Answer honestly.
I mean to prove to you that football is easy to learn but horse racing is less easy. Also that the racegoers are a small minority.
To make horse racing more popular (than it already is), the setting up of an appreciation course is needed.
The Racing Post is not one such. It’s a great journal but no good for the beginner.
The advertising material produced by the horse racing authorities is no good either, in that respect.But as far as racing boards are concerned, it is in their interest to get involved.
Horse racing is not a theatrical performend where the purpose of the advertisers is to make us go only once.
It is not like an invitation to a holiday resort either, because we go to the holiday resort to lie on the beach and think of nothing.
Horse racing is a way of life and it is a mind game for the bettor.I think some of the specifications of the possible solution start to become apparent to you. But it takes work to do it properly.
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