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Full decs not yet published, but going on what SL have so far, I have circled the following two against the field:
Companero – now 8lb lower than last win in 2009, was evidentally tired on his 2nd comeback run on very soft ground at Carlisle behind Knockara Beau over hurdles, after pulling up behind WER at Warwick. Those two spins should have wiped away any cobwebs, should stay the marathon trip (won over 3m1f) and the forecast soft ground will be in his favour – should be in the reckoning.
Giles Cross – superb 2nd to Synchronized in the Welsh National, and is 4lb higher as a result, but is relatively lightly raced and is improving. Obviously relishes a stamina test and soft ground, so should also be in the mix.
Will be interesting to see who goes and who doesn’t come Friday.
Full decs not yet published, but going on what SL have so far, I have circled the following two against the field:
Companero – now 8lb lower than last win in 2009, was evidentally tired on his 2nd comeback run on very soft ground at Carlisle behind Knockara Beau over hurdles, after pulling up behind WER at Warwick. Those two spins should have wiped away any cobwebs, should stay the marathon trip (won over 3m1f) and the forecast soft ground will be in his favour – should be in the reckoning.
Giles Cross – superb 2nd to Synchronized in the Welsh National, and is 4lb higher as a result, but is relatively lightly raced and is improving. Obviously relishes a stamina test and soft ground, so should also be in the mix.
Will be interesting to see who goes and who doesn’t come Friday.
Some interesting picks there – certainly been tempted by Giles Cross, but I’ve chosen a completely different two against the field.
Before I mention them, though, I’d like to take time to mention Star Player. He was one of the entries, but sadly died racing at Carlisle yesterday. He would have been one of my picks, because he fitted every trend, bar one.
OK, here you are.
Minella Boys – definitely a horse who’s in good form right now, he’s not carrying too heavy a weight and he came second to West End Rocker, who would be the favourite if he ran. Ticks most of the trends, can travel all day if needs be. Hopefully his price won’t be too short.
Comply Or Die – OK, I admit it, when it comes to staying handicaps, I love this horse. The 4m trip won’t bother him, and you know he’s going to both stay and stand up. Yes, he’s carrying top weight, but he’s done it before. I reckon he can have a much bigger race than people think, and there’s no debating that he’s by far the classiest horse in this race.
FLD
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
The ground would be the worry to me with COD – most of his wins, including his wonderful in the GN in 2008, were on better ground and although he clearly stays, may get anchored with his big weight on what presumably will be very soft ground up in Newcastle – will have to wait and see however what the weather holds in store in next few days.
Minella Boys in interesting, but keeps shooting up the handicap after great displays LTO and in the Sussex National. A current mark of 131 may find him out however, but would be a solid eachway bet.
The Irish raiser Noble Concorde would have to be in the reckoning also after his good 2nd to Some Target at Punchestown in their GN Trial, and is a live outsider (currently a massive 100/1) for the real thing.
A great race in store.
Doesn’t look a great renewal of the race on paper to me. Having said that it still fascinates me.Backed both C.O.D and Merigo when winning this and see it as a good National trial.
Giles Cross looks to have a great chance based on his last run.Denis O’Regan is a good booking, one of my favs over extreme distances.
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Ballyfoy
jumped like a pig in the Welsh National and was out of contention a long way from home. He was given a considerate race over hurdles last time, will go on the ground and should stay every yard of the trip.
He’ll do at 9/1.
Giles Cross certainly ran well in the Welsh National and deserves to be second favourite. However, it is possible he was flattered by that, always prominent in what seemed a slowly run race. Amongst the principles only the winner came from as far back as mid field and even he (Synchronised) made his move before the pace increased. Though it is possible might be able to dominate again and stable in form.
I prefer Minella Boys, who’s trainer is in magnificent form and still improving. Should go close if settling well. The other one I like at the price of around 8/1 is Morgan Be, looks well handicapped and has conditions to suit.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Giles Cross was out on his feet some way from home when given a similar test in the Midland’s National, and looks unlikely to last home with 7lbs more in the saddle.
Minella Boys has improved for the cheekpieces, should stay every yard of the trip, and the form of his Warwick 2nd has been franked by the 3rd and 4th since. Won’t get rich on the 4/1 available, but looks much the likeliest winner to me.A very disappointing line up for this to be honest.
Good to see Comply Or Die add a bit of interest, and Minella Boys looks as if he’s still got a bit of time to become a serious contender in these type of races for the next couple of years. Can’t argue with it being favourite.
Giles Cross is a nice horse who I’ve got a soft spot for, and had a few quid e/w on him in Midlands National, at least he doesn’t have Synchronized to contend with today.
I’m going take a chance on Negus De Beaumont. A lot depends on how much ability he retains, and whether or not Murphy has him "ready for it"
A bit of an in and out performer, but ran 2nd to Captain Americo lately, and I know he’s highly regarded by some.Showed a lot of promise earlier in his career, and I remember thinking he shaped as if he had a staying chase in him at some point.
Whatever happens, always look forward to this race, and i hope it proves me wrong, and turns out to be a cracker.
A disappointing line-up is about what the disapointing prize money deserves.
Fifteen years ago, first prize was £22,500
Five years ago, first prize was £46,500
Today, first prize is £18,666
AP
Exactly what I was going to say AP. Pitiful prize but that’s what I’ve come to expect from Northen Racing.
The support card is pretty poor and no doubt a factor in C4 only screening the one race.
Anyway given stable form I’ve been suckered into a couple of quid on Flintoff (again). And Ballyfoy.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a big run from Companero either.
Agree on the prizemoney – I didn’t notice that until I read the comments here – It is a real shame because the timing of the race just after the national weights are out could make it a superb trial.
Today I like the chances of Belon Gale who at least has won a race of this nature in similar conditions.
Backed Minella Boys to win the Sussex National and Giles Cross ew for the Welsh National ante-post. My heart would love to see either win, but not convinced the latter is as effective over this marathon trip, and Minella Boys is short(ish) in a competitive race.
Connections of
Ballyfoy
are quietly confident about his chances. Their 10YO stays forever and will cherish the very testing conditions.
Napped Giles Cross for the Welsh National and was chuffed with the result, so he has my attention here…
Been a keen follower for Companero for ages and have always seen him as a National horse, so this could really give me a clue on whether he has a shout for next year.
My key fancy in this one though is Belon Gale. Has a good staying record and his recent 4 mile win will give him every chance today.
That was ugly. Could argue it should never have taken place.
Well done, Companero and Giles Cross.
Was almost hard to watch them over the last 2 fences. I honestly thought the winner was going to refuse at the last and Giles Cross as well looked like stopping before the last… instead he stopped after the last!
Brilliant return to form for Companero. Like i said in the previous post; i’ve had him down as a National horse for years and i’m disappointed he doesn’t have an entry for it. He’s bound to get an entry next year. Odds are they’ll take him to the Becher next season and give him a Hello Bud prep…
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That was absolute disgusting to see them horses race in that, they are the most beautiful animals in the world and can’t be put under that much of a beating.
The meeting should have been called off, money over saftey me thinks.
I dont think any of those horses in todays field will ever get over this race and could be the end of their career.
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