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One of the big 2m handicaps of the year, On face value, there doesn’t look to be as many obvious unexposed improver’s as there usually are.
The current favourite is Salden Licht. He looks progressive, but he’s ended up fairly high in the handicap (OR152) after a few good placed runs in 2010, & a recent win at Exeter. Imo, he’s not going to be way ahead of the handicapper off this mark.
Could this be the race when Get Me Out of Here gets unleashed for the season. Off OR150, he may not have to be champion hurdle class to put up a very big performance here. He won this race last year off OR135 & then went on to finish 2nd in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham. I think his current mark is workable. He’ll have to carry a big weight, but in previous years, class horses like Punjabi (OR150) & Rooster Booster (OR166), have both run very well in this race with big weights.
There are several entries from Ireland, & it maybe this year the better handicapped horses will come from there. Final Approach & Call the Police finished 1st & 2nd in what looks a decent h/cap hurdle at Leopardstown (Prima Vista started fav).
Nicky Henderson normally does well in this race. His entries this year are Soldatino (last year’s triumph hurdle winner), Eradicate (last year’s Swinton winner) & Solix (good French form but unraced in the UK). He also has several entries who have already gone chasing, like You’re the Top, Nadiya de la Vega, French Opera & Tanks for That. I’d guess the at Soldatino (OR148) would be a likely contender.
Gary Moore is another who does well. He has several entries towards the bottom (rated between OR115-125). None look obvious improver’s, but he can spring some big priced surprises in races like this. My old nemesis First Avenue is one of them, I think he has stacks of inherent class, but his Montjeu quirks tend to show up at some stage. He’ll probably have to run from out of the handicap as well. I’d be looking closely at what he declares.
I did think that Sanctuaire was a possibility here, & still do. He got beaten in a messy race at Exeter, but I had a feeling that in a truer run race, he may perform better. Looking at collateral form more closely though, if you fancy Sanctuaire, you have to think Notus de la Tour is an equally good bet. Based on Cheltenham form in the Fred Winter, NDLT is 11lb better off with Sanctuaire for a 9l beating.
Alan King has a couple of interesting entries. Walkon was a class horse a few years back, you assume he’d be given a chance by the handicapper, but it’s a long time to be off. His other entry, Iolith is unexposed & this is his first handicap. He has got to be considered, but my gut instinct was that he was not another Get me out of Here.
Of the others, Tocca Ferro & Rebel Dancer come here after finishing 1st & 2nd in the Gerry Fielden over this C&D, & seem to have a similar chance. There’s a few decent, but well exposed horses who should also be able to run close to their marks, like Ronaldo des Mottes & Nearby.
My early UK short-list would be Notus de la Tour & Get Me Out of Here, but I’d be worried about the Irish.
Good write up Colin.
I’ve bet 2 for it, and both have been mentioned by yourself.
Eradicate
. Always seems to be travelling strongly in his races, not always finding anything at the business end. Won a few quid off him in the Swinton in May (should have been more, but ended up 2nd choice), and think he’s got a very good chance in this. Trainer takes this race seriously, so hoping he shows up. Expecting a run for my my money at the very least. Took 30-36’s
Call The Police
. Had a small e/w bet on him last weekend, and was very impressed. Don’t know if he’s being targetted for this, but he was worth a risk at 50’s – 55’s. If not this race, then I think he’s definitely got a big race in him this season, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t develop into a very good horse over next couple of seasons. Definitely one to follow.
Jan 27. Still fancy Eradicate, took prices right up to 50’s, so really hoping he shows up.
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The day they found out Get Me Out of Here couldn’t jump fences is the day it gave Jonjo no choice but to try and win the Tote Trophy for the second time. There simply isn’t a better race for him…not unless you think he can win the Champion Hurdle. I backed him before you lot finished your Xmas pudding
Hasn’t been done since Rosyth pulled off the double and a massive gamble for Capt Ryan Price and JP is tarred with the same brush. Read between the lines lads……Get Me Out of Here…..20/1 for the Ladbroke and not a penny for him right up until the race was lost. Now he’s 12/1-14/1 for an even tougher race to win…ask yourselves why? Bookies ain’t daft.
If he’s right he’ll take a world of beating IMO and Jonjo has this very annoying habit of having them 110% spot on when it really matters.
Now I’m off to find a saver just incase.
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The weight will probably go up but Get Me Out Of Here is set to carry 10st`3lbs as things stand.
Ronaldo Des Mottes is 6lbs better off for 1 1/4 lengths. That would make him agood thing on paper to reverse places and the fact he hasn’t had a run it looks like David Pipe has laid him out for this.
Coming from the yard he does the market will tell if he has because the Pipes as we all know very seldom miss when they go for a biggie in the market place. Well worth taking a chance at current odds I would have thought.
Nicky Henderson loves to have a crack at this race but I wouldn’t have a clue which of his 8 entries is most likely to be the stable choice.
Eradicate looks well enough in but Nicky ran Punjabi in this with topweight so it may well be he will send Solix or Soldatino who knows? You can bet whichever Barry Geharty is jocked up on will be very short in the market.
Interesting that PN has entered Celestial Halo and if he turned up wouls surely have a chance on a galloping track like Newbury. Howver it could be he’s laid out Tito Bustillo for this. He was a huge stable gamble and disappontmrnt in the County Hurdle and he might just be thrown in here off 10st.
At the moment the best prices are on Betfair Ronaldo Des Mottes 25 Titto Bustillo 39 but both are decent prices for EW bets on the books.
I still think Jonjo will pull it off but see that above two as possible dangers and will back them as savers.
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Should be worth watching Tito Bustillo run today. Quite surprised he’s fav and that he’s still 39 on the machine. Can’t see that being there much longer.
If only
Get me out of Here
did get in with 10-13,he could still end up Top weight which would be concerning.
Overturn
is the current top weight off 11-12 and he could carry it to victory,proper Champion hurdle horse this fellow. 44"s on Betfair has got to be worth a tenner!
I had no trouble getting £3 on 32 on the machine for Ronaldo. This might suggest he’s a doubtful runner.
Having said that, not everyone on Betfair is very sharp. I have been able to lay small amounts of Dunguib more than 24 hours after he was announced as a non-runner in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
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I can’t see Overturn being asked to carry top weight with the Champion Hurdle now his aim for the season.
Alan King has suggested on more than one occasion that races like this are best left to improving novices. With that in mind the 16/1 about both
Iolith
and
Recession Proof
is big enough to risk them not getting a run.
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I have my doubts if Overtrun could do a Persian War He’d have to be neary as good as him to win this years race with top weight if they all staed in. Wouldn’t fancy him giving GMOOH a stone if re-produce his Supreme run.
Tito Bustillo’s run was typical of a horse being laid out for a touch in the Tote Trophy. Looked to be going as well as anything then all of a sudden he went flat as a pancake at the exact spot you’d expect a horse 6 gallops short of a run to blow up.
A huge gamble in the County, could it be an indication that the owner may well be a budding JP McManus?
I could of course be wrong but I’ve a feeling we’ll see this horse improve out of all recognition and go very close on the big day.
Does Nicholls lay them out in such a cynical fashion? I had the impression he’s very straight. Maybe the horse has picked up the Kauto infection. However, I guess it doesn’t matter what the cause of the disappointing run is, as it will put him on a reasonable mark for the race.
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Does Nicholls lay them out in such a cynical fashion? I had the impression he’s very straight. Maybe the horse has picked up the Kauto infection. However, I guess it doesn’t matter what the cause of the disappointing run is, as it will put him on a reasonable mark for the race.
Try watching Twist Magic’s runs in the QMCC. Complete non trier if ever there was one and he won backed of the boards after the first one and turned over a hot pot after the 2nd one. Quite simply he wouldn’t have got the trip at Cheltenham in a bus so PN made sure he had the easist time possible when all hope had gone……….that was about 2 seconds after the tapes went up
Not really anything cynical about it as TM couldn’t possibly have won or even be placed and nothing cynical about running Tito Bustillo short of a gallop. If the horse is being aimed at the Tote he wouldn’t be anywhere near 100% yet and the run will hopefully have brought him on.
I’d say it was fair comment to say Sanctuaire who drifted like a barge, badly needed the run as he finished stone last. He would pick up and carry most of those when he’s right.
So if Tito Bustillo was cynical then Sanctuaire must be bordering on the criminal if he turns up and wins the Tote..
Just racing Kasp and as we here so often they aren’t machines. Some horses become heart lazy at home as they get older/wiser and need a run or two to get them spot on. With that type the only place you can do that is on the track.
Traditionally the Tote is very often won by a horse who has been laid out for a touch and it’s not a bad idea to put a line through a poor run like Tito Bustillo’s yesterday……or GMOOH 2 waltzes he’s had for that matter.
.
If ever their was a banker . Surely WALKON is going to destroy all these 8/1 is massive. Come on
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Best form 2nd to Zaynar on the stiffest course in the country. First race back over 2m4f on another fairly stiff track.
That tells me the Tote Gold Trophy is an afterthought or he’s in there as a precaution. I sincerely doubt if he is actually fast enough to win this but should the ground come up very soft/heavy he’d be a danger to them all.
I see Ronaldo is a confirmed runner – but it’s frustrating his odds haven’t come down. 25-32 on Betfair. A good deal I would say.
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David Pipe said weeks ago he was fit and well and would be aimed for this.
Strange as it might seem, those who go for a bit of a touch wouldn’t be backing their’s until about the Wednesday/ Thursday after the horse has done his last serious piece of work and came out of it ok……By Thursday eve things may be a fair bit clearer.
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