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I currently have £10 ew on Final Approach, who I think will come off very well in the weights. Also will most likely to back Get Me Out of Here at the same price, always had a soft spot for him, and think he is due a very big run, after an abject start to the season.
I quite like the chances of Final Approach. I think the the last race it won will work out quite nicely. Walkon also has a great chance but you have to be worried about the bounce factor and the fact that surely this was not the original plan. Get me out of here would be better than I think if it were to win giving a stone to some useful sorts.
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Used to be a great race the old Sweeps Hurdle and gave us abit of a comparison how Irish and English trained horses might fair against each other in this.
For some reason better known to themsleves is seems like 60,000 Euros isn’t worth crossing the Irish Sea for.
So the only real evidence is to watch Final Approach on video and to be honest I wasn’t impressed.. I reckon Willie Mullins is favourite not the horse who should be twice the odds on offer.
While it is perfectly possiple he’s an improving horse the MCR was run completely opposite to how this will be run. You could have thrown a blanket over the entire field at the second last and Final Approach’s flat speeed won the day.
When Final Approach ran at Fairhouse Rocky Count attempted to lead them a merry gallop and as a result the race started in earnest much earlier than it did at Leopardstown and that’s what beat Final Approach. He was travelling that little bit faster and although he did quicken approcahing the sting had been taken out of his tail.
If there is a plus it’s the weight he will be getting from some of the better horses but I doubt that will be enough as it won’t change the fact he may find nothing off a strong gallop.
As I said before I always regarded this as GMOOH’s big day and I expect he’ll go off favourite if I am right. JP is not known for AP gambles so Saturday’s early betting exchanges will tell all.
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Solix wins – end of thread
I’m not convinced. Nicky has such a good record in this he could run a donkey and they would lump on it
Looks very likely to carry 11st12bs which means if he wins this he’ll be another horse we can add to that fantastic 4 for the Festival.
All Nicky Henderson has to do is improve a Grade 3 winner in Aut France to Champion Hurdle standard and he’s home and dry
It does seem strange Nicky would run him here without a prep race. He set Seven Barrows alight when cantering all over Oscar Whiskey but Tito De whatsitsname works better than Binocular and looked what happened to him.
Granted Solix could be anything but I couldn’t back him simply because he’s catching pigeons at home.. In France he was a 30/1 sot when winning a grade 3 then lost to the same horse by 8 lengths which doesn’t read like CH form to me.
I just wonder if he’s one of these horses who works well all the time and Michael Buckley bought him off the gallops rather than reading the form book.
Nicky Henderson’s other horses Soldatino and Eradicate are still intended runner and the latter showed he is well up to winning this type of race when winning at Haydock. Soldatino has had the perfect preration for this as you can bet your life he was well short of a gallop in his only run this season.
His Triumph Hurdle win has got to be much better than anything Solix has achieved and Solix has to give him 4lbs.
Nicky Henderson no doubt loves to win this race but unless one of these two french imports is better than Punjabi who failed of 11st12lbs they have to be up against it.
———————————I’m still in the GMOOH camp but John Quinn is not in the habit of wasting owners money and if a horse isn’t good enough he’ll tell them straight. John has been blinkered for months with only one race in mind for Reccession Proof and has made no secret of the fact they think he’ll take all the beating in a race that looks taylormade for him. He seldom get’s it wrong so I reckon the 14/1 still available is a stonking good bet with 4 places available.
My 2 against the field Get Me Out Of Here asnd Reccession Proof
Anyone got any opinions on Drill Sergeant? I think this horse is seriously over priced. Would have gone close in the Lanzarote but for a bad blunder at the second last. Good flat form. Nicely weighted. 33s still available….
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He might not have to pull himself up to get tailed off in this race when you consider PN withdrew Toubab out of the Ladbroke becuase he thought he wasn’t good enough and he beat Drill Sergeant out of sight……..lively outsider I suppose and stranger things have happened but I wouldn’t have him on my mind tbh
If Get me out of here can leave his two runs this season behind him he has got to have a big shout. The two horses I like in this race are both from Alan King’s stable.
I couldn’t be more impressed with the fashion that Salden Licht won at Exeter in January, he never came off the bridle. The third horse that day, Hunterview was beaten three lengths and subsequently won a valuable handicap at Musselburgh yesterday, Salden Licht gave him 18lbs at Exeter.
Iolith is another horse I was taken with, he won at Taunton in his last outing, he is still a novice and is totally unexposed.
There are my two against the field.
JohnJ
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Cant believe everything you hear but I was just told Barry Geharty will ride Soldatino on Saturday and not Solix (David Bass)
Wonder what will happen to the market if that turns out to be true and I’ve no reason to think it’s not..I never did buy the Solix gamble. Horse has never ran on good ground never carried more than 10st8lbs and hasn’t jumped a single hurdle in the UK…If David Bass does ride he’ll carry 11st7lbs which measn he’s giving weight to Grade 1 winners and he has only won a poxy grade 3 in France.
Must not be catching pigeons at home he must be passing them
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He’s a definite runner unless the heavens open up but they won’t book anyone until they decide whether Finian’s Rainbow runs or not.
I notice he’s a huge drifter on Betfair which is probably due to him not being jocked up and heavy rain forecast for Thus and Friday.
Final Approach has been drifting all week and has now shot out to 21 which is even more alarming
Yeah, had noticed that too, more than a little worried now, hope it stays dry.
Thanks for the update, and good luck with your selection.
What Fist has said about GMOOH and Recession Proof, basically – they form my two e/w singles and reverse forecast!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
What are people’s opinion on Soldatino? He’s a grade 1 winner carrying less weight than his stablemate Solix who hasn’t won a grade 1, yet he’s a bigger price and with the stable jockey on board. And does anyone think he may have needed his last run? I thought he was still on the bridle after two miles, and the extra three found his fitness out. Just a thought, but think he has more chance than the favourite??
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Impossible to tell mate on one hand you got Solix running all over the top of Oscar Whisky at home and Soldatino winning a below par Triumph Hurdle which you would have to say compares very poorly with Supreme Hurdle form.
The jockey booking doesn’t really tell us anything as Nicky put Felix De Giles up on Punjabi when he finished 2nd a couple of years ago.
It’s not only Nicky Henderson we have to worry about. Amazingly 7 trainers go here with between 2 and 4 runners which confuses things even more.
All very true, but according to the owner, Solix went well enough in a routine piece of work with Oscar Whisky, even if he really was running all over him, there’s no promise it continues on a racecourse.
Anyway, I’m gonna stick with Soldatino. Not the greatest of Triumph’s I know, but the way he travelled the other day for two miles, and also quite possibly needing the run, I think he should be there or thereabouts.
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Quite right mate. Most horses who are laid out for a race would be handled exactly the way Soldatino has been handled. You can bet your life Nicky has this very much on his mind when he his first outing of the season. You ask if he would have needed the run……daft question really….you can bet your life and your next door neighbours he did.
I read what the owner said about Solix but he’s not telling the full story. Solix didn’t work ok with Oscar Whisky he cantered all over the top of him and that’s what’s started tongues wagging and spurred the gamble.
However there another French horse in the yard who works even better and he got stuffed on the track and all and sun
dry got their fingers burned….at least twiceThe problem I have with Solix is everything with be totally foreign to him come Saturday and that alone is too big a risk to be betting him
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