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Given the importance of trainer form, I would be interested in expert views on how to account for trainer form in the case of Master Minded in the Victor Chandler Chase. Ordinarily he would be nailed on but given recent trainer trends perhaps the Henderson-trained Petit Robin is a better bet.
It looks like a lot of money has come in for Kauto antepost as his odds are going back down again from 12-1. I am not certain he will run though. If he has some sort of virus it could take a while to recover and regain peak form. He might run out of time. If he has something more permanent then he will be retired.
I think we will see some medical reports come out soon as Mr Nicholls is media friendly and will want to justify keeping Kauto in training.
A very strange race this. Judging from Betfair it looks like only 3 or 4 serious horses will turn up. Amazingly, at least one bookmaker is offering antepost 1/5 odds first 3 as the field is still potentially 8+. You don’t need a degree in maths to see this is a good deal.Make sure they don’t go NRNB before you get on though.
Very useful thanks. On odds as percentages etc I find it a whole lot easier to work with decimal odds. So a 25% chance has decimal odds of 4.0 (ie 100/25). It’s also easier for multiples, e.g a win double of two 25% chances has odds of 4×4=16.0. You can always convert back to fractional odds by subtracting one.
I agree. I think the value is in Long Run. One doubt though is whether, like Kauto, he prefers going on flat right handed courses.
Thanks for those comprehensive answers. However, one irony of yesterday’s racing is that the trainers apparently didn’t know quite a lot about some key horses. Kauto Star’s below form performance is not fully explained yet, Riverside Theatre’s stamina was apparently doubtful but he stayed, the Nightingale had an unexpected heart condition, Binocular performed better than comments prior to the race suggested. I don’t think the trainers are being dishonest – they just don’t know how a horse will perform on the day. And to be fair to P Nicholls, he did attempt to deflate the hype around Brampour prior to his race.
I am grateful too for West End Rocker. A very tricky race to analyse I thought.A bit surprised the winner’s odds drifted near the off – I’m not sure why, especially as I guess a lot of people read this thread now.
Considering long run ran a time which was 4 sconds slower than kautos run last year
Long Run was 4 seconds
faster
today than Kauto was last year. That’s about 16-20 lengths. Coincidentally he beat Kauto by 19 lengths today. Of course, comparisons might be affected by conditions so it’s hard to be precise but both races were run on good to soft.
I see Long Run won in 6.03 whereas Kauto won in similar conditions last year (2009)in 6.07 when Long Run won the Feltham in 6.15. It looks more like a massive improvement in Long Run than a major decline in Kauto to me. Kauto didn’t look quite right to me – this might be old age or might be some other problem. I think he might as well have a shot at the Gold Cup. If age is the explanation for today’s disappointment then he should be 25-1 or more for the GC but if he has a different more temporary excuse then maybe 6-1.
An arb has developed in Riverside Theatre each way – get on quick at 16-1 and 1/4 the odds a place before it goes. Betfair is 17.5/1 win and 2.8/1 place.
TAPK does have a good point in that 11 year olds are a bit old. I imagine if Kauto Star does have a bad run, then the trainer will put it down to age/miles on the clock. However, it is difficult to see KS getting beaten on his favourite track by a fairly weak bunch of contenders. And I notice Sportingbet are offering faller insurance. Although fallers are rare in the King Geo, I think anyone having a casual bet up to £25 on KS might do well to take their punt with Sportingbet because I think falling is the biggest danger for KS.
10 lbs? which comic have you been reading?
If this was a handicap in the old days here’s how I would see it:
Kauto Star 12.7lbs
Alberta’s Run 11st4lbs
Paddydeplasterer 10st9lbs
Long Run 10st6lbs
Nacarat 10st5lbsThe rest minimum weight 10st
I was referring to their performances back on Boxing Day 2009. Long Run was carrying 11 stone , 10lb less than Kauto and was 8 seconds slower . 8 seconds = 32 lengths = 32 pounds
roughly so a total of 42 pounds or three stone.I’m not a great believer in form as a predictor, but this race is unusual in having very few contenders proven over 3 miles in soft or good/soft. If we rule out those who haven’t gone 3 miles or more and those who don’t like soft then we are left with Kauto, Nacarat, Long Run and Madison.
Long Run has 8 seconds and 10 pounds to find on Kauto based on their Boxing Day 2009 runs at Kempton. Madison has a similar amount and Nacarat a bit more.
The market has got the prices about right now I think. The unexposed horses are the Nightingale and Riverside as we don’t know their stamina. Riverside might be slightly underpriced. Noises from the trainer and jockey don’t sound encouraging but they are more of the vein that they don’t know how he will fare rather than it’s a lost cause.
I’m not a great believer in form as a predictor, but this race is unusual in having very few contenders proven over 3 miles in soft or good/soft. If we rule out those who haven’t gone 3 miles or more and those who don’t like soft then we are left with Kauto, Nacarat, Long Run and Madison.
Long Run has 8 seconds and 10 pounds to find on Kauto based on their Boxing Day 2009 runs at Kempton. Madison has a similar amount and Nacarat a bit more.
The market has got the prices about right now I think. The unexposed horses are the Nightingale and Riverside as we don’t know their stamina. Riverside might be slightly underpriced. Noises from the trainer and jockey don’t sound encouraging but they are more of the vein that they don’t know how he will fare rather than it’s a lost cause.
On Sizing Europe, it looks like W Hill are giving goodwill refunds/voids at their discretion. So worth asking for your money back if it’s a smallish bet, you don’t have a lot on the other horses in the race and you think W Hill are keen to keep you onside.
I predict
Pride of Dulcote
(This is a prediction of Segals Ante Post Gold Cup Pick, not mine. That would be too easy to predict.)
Well done! Went from 25/1 to 18/1 after Segal tipped it. I hope you were on.
Diamond Harry odds have dropped now to 10-1. I don’t think this is a good deal versus Denman at 8-1. Possibly it’s down to speculation on the Pricewise antepost tips due tomorrow. DH seems a bit too obvious for Segal though. Also when he tips an obvious horse the odds don’t move that much anyway – see Long Run for the King George.
