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I see the race panning out a bit differently.It would be unusual to have a slow pace in a big race like this. And horses have their preferred speeds. So I think there will be a leading group including Kauto and Nacarat going quite fast.I think Long Run would be best off running slightly off the pace, so he can jump without interference, and then trying to catch up later on as the others tire in the stamina sapping conditions. This might not enable him to beat Kauto (unless Kauto is well below form or makes a big jumping error) but it should give him a good shot at a place.
Turftrax going report from Kempton at 2pm today is Good to Soft (Soft in places), GoingStick Chase: 6.4, Hurdle: 6.1.
They had 6mm of rain overnight.
Forecast for the remainder of the week:-
Wednesday: Mild and breezy with steady rain late afternoon, 2mm to 5mm.
Thursday: Mild and breezy with further rain, 3mm to 5mm.
Friday: Rain at times, then turning dry and breezy, 4mm to 6mm.
Saturday: Mild and very breezy.Just saw a clip on You Tube, where Kauto Star was schooled for the race. As far as I know he is in very good shape. I hope he keeps it up and writes history this Saturday. He deserves it. But that is just my opinion.
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and a damn good opinion at that Debby
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I see the race panning out a bit differently.It would be unusual to have a slow pace in a big race like this. And horses have their preferred speeds. So I think there will be a leading group including Kauto and Nacarat going quite fast.I think Long Run would be best off running slightly off the pace, so he can jump without interference, and then trying to catch up later on as the others tire in the stamina sapping conditions. This might not enable him to beat Kauto (unless Kauto is well below form or makes a big jumping error) but it should give him a good shot at a place.
Kauto Star has ran all 4 King George’s the same way held up in touch so I doubt if he’ll be any closer than 4th or 5th early doors.
It wouldn’t matter to Kauto if they walked for the first 2 miles he’s got more speed than any of them so I can’t see AP changing tactics no matter what they do.
Anyway if nothing wants to go on I think you’ll find The Nightingale will be sent on as he was in the Pendil.
I think it’s Kauto Star’s race to lose, work-rider Clifford Baker says he is "as good as ever" and from watching the schooling clip on youtube my money is firmly on Kauto to retain the King George and make history.
I’m also quietly backing Nacarat, watched last years King George and it was foolish of him to run with Kauto on the turn as he was left for dead but from reading articles, Nacarat is in good form and should put a greater challenge and is a strong each way chance in my opinion.
I have my doubts about The Nightingale staying this trip and I fear the horse may struggle at this distance even though reports suggest he is in great form, I have my doubts.
I think Long Run is in with a good shout as well but I’d place Nacarat ahead when the race is drawing to a close.
However, as I said before, it’s Kauto’s race to lose and I have my money on him to win his fifth consecutive King George!
On Sizing Europe, it looks like W Hill are giving goodwill refunds/voids at their discretion. So worth asking for your money back if it’s a smallish bet, you don’t have a lot on the other horses in the race and you think W Hill are keen to keep you onside.
Thanks folks. For me Kauto Star is the champion, if he wins or not.
And so long as everyone appreciates the horse he was! Thats the main thing! Win or lose he will be retired afterwards,that has to be the right decision.My concern for the 4/6fav is exactly the same as it was in the Gold Cup when he was 8/11fav,his jumping! He used to demolish fences but get to the other side as a younger horse,he is an 11yo now and if he clouts one,memories of that horrible fall in the Gold cup will hit him like a ton of bricks i"m afraid! Paul Nicholls will still make it 5 consecutive victories with the young pretender
The Nightingale
. So long as the ground is defineately Soft The Nightingale is the best bet of the year so far for those of us with the Foresight to snaffle the 20"s,if he stands up he wont be out of the first 3! Those with Foresight and a shrewd knowledge will have taken the 8/1 about The Nightingale to win without Kauto,so if the pair jump the last together my head will be cheering home The Nightingale,my heart will be willing the King home and proving me wrong,i can live with that no problem when history is being made,thats because i love the game!
"The King is dead! Long live the King"!
TAPK, you are usually on the ball, so get the benefit of the doubt, but opposing Kauto here, is definitely the wrong move!
I’m not a great believer in form as a predictor, but this race is unusual in having very few contenders proven over 3 miles in soft or good/soft. If we rule out those who haven’t gone 3 miles or more and those who don’t like soft then we are left with Kauto, Nacarat, Long Run and Madison.
Long Run has 8 seconds and 10 pounds to find on Kauto based on their Boxing Day 2009 runs at Kempton. Madison has a similar amount and Nacarat a bit more.
The market has got the prices about right now I think. The unexposed horses are the Nightingale and Riverside as we don’t know their stamina. Riverside might be slightly underpriced. Noises from the trainer and jockey don’t sound encouraging but they are more of the vein that they don’t know how he will fare rather than it’s a lost cause.
I’m not a great believer in form as a predictor, but this race is unusual in having very few contenders proven over 3 miles in soft or good/soft. If we rule out those who haven’t gone 3 miles or more and those who don’t like soft then we are left with Kauto, Nacarat, Long Run and Madison.
Long Run has 8 seconds and 10 pounds to find on Kauto based on their Boxing Day 2009 runs at Kempton. Madison has a similar amount and Nacarat a bit more.
The market has got the prices about right now I think. The unexposed horses are the Nightingale and Riverside as we don’t know their stamina. Riverside might be slightly underpriced. Noises from the trainer and jockey don’t sound encouraging but they are more of the vein that they don’t know how he will fare rather than it’s a lost cause.
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10 lbs? which comic have you been reading?
If this was a handicap in the old days here’s how I would see it:
Kauto Star 12.7lbs
Alberta’s Run 11st4lbs
Paddydeplasterer 10st9lbs
Long Run 10st6lbs
Nacarat 10st5lbsThe rest minimum weight 10st
On Kauto at 11/10 to naturally hoping he wins, would be great for racing also if he could pull it off.
Also having a little nibble at Forpady for place only, seven second place finishes on trot can’t be a coincidence, I’m sure he’ll be there or therabouts behind KS.
10 lbs? which comic have you been reading?
If this was a handicap in the old days here’s how I would see it:
Kauto Star 12.7lbs
Alberta’s Run 11st4lbs
Paddydeplasterer 10st9lbs
Long Run 10st6lbs
Nacarat 10st5lbsThe rest minimum weight 10st
I just wish Long Run was receiving all that weight from Kauto Star. The old boy wouldn’t stand a chance.
Regarding Kauto’s chances : I notice some posters (ie Kauto fans) have been factoring in a few insurance policies by way of alternative selections.
Come on lads, you can’t have it both ways: either you trust fully in Kauto Star’s class to see him through or you don’t. Fence sitters ! Huh !
Like Frankel in the Dewhurst – all or nothing I say.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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