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Sizing Europe isn’t the best traveller despite having won in England on three seperate occasions. He suffered from some sort of travel sickness that ruled him out of Punjabi’s Champion Hurdle IIRC. Travelling seems to take quite a bit out of him.
Travelling over to England and back home again would probably be unwise with a spring campaign in mind.
I see The Nightingale has come in to 12/1 now with Totesport. The ground is going to be pretty soft so he has a place chance but 12/1 is too short IMO.
Somebody recommended him at 90-1 earlier on this thread and was promptly ridiculed.
I have felt pretty stale about this race what with the postponements and IC’s non-participation but I am now getting more of a feel for how it will play out.
We can now discount forpady, Albertas ,Madison, Planet and Olly as they have a strong preference for non-soft or are outclassed.
My guess is that Nacarat will lead then off but run out of puff towards the end. That leaves 5 possible contenders. Kauto should win by several lengths but if he has a mishap then it will be between Riverside, Sizing, Long Run and The Nightingale. Long Run likes soft and has scope to improve his jumping. Riverside might be short of stamina but is a possible. Sizing might not turn up but I think he probably will and should do ok based on his Down Royal form in soft conditions. The Nightingale should plug on and has a place chance if some of the other contenders screw up.
So my tissue is Kauto 4/6, LR 6/1, Riverside 8/1, Sizing (WAR) 9/1, Nightingale 20/1, 33-1 bar these. (includes overround).
Best value Kauto win and the 4 named others e/w. I am on all 5 of them already.
It would appear that the forecast rain will provide testing conditions, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves – the only predictable thing about our weather is its unpredictability!
Madison Du Berlais is versatile groundwise, with three wins on soft ground and three wins on good.
He made up a huge amount of ground late on in the race last season, so if the forecast soft ground does place the emphasis on stamina, he’ll be staying on when others have cried enough.
We all know he’s a better horse on flat tracks and David Pipe has actually said that he loves soft ground in the past.
40/1 is too big and William Hill have him at 20/1 w/o Kauto Star.
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The biggest certainty in the King George is that Kasper is a very hot fav to have the winner and very unlike to retire on his winnings
……..You’ve backed 5 horses? AS your man said on the Sporting Life website Kempton dries out in a day so we can’t be certain of the ground at all.
So what if it is soft? it wouldn’t stop Kauto Star,Long Run, Forpaddy, Madam De’Bourlais,Sizing Europe or Riverside Theatre who all go very well on soft.
This horse will never go the pace and be tailed off by 3 out IMO
I still think there must be a decent chance that Long Run’s lepping over our fences is likely, if not certain, to have been straightened out. If so, it will be good-bye to your nags, folks, as he powers away.
I hope….
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Well I just watched Secretariat the movie and immediately thought of what Kauto Star is about to attempt. FIVE King George’s on the trot! hard to imagine after seeing great horses like Arkle and Dessie that any horse and trainer could achieve such a feat.
Heart goes out to Ruby who must be cursing his luck but you can bet he’ll be with him at every jump, glued to the TV at home.
To put it in perspective if you had gone into Ladbrokes 5 years ago and asked for a 1/2 a million quid to a tenner Kauto Star or any other horse would win the next 5 King George’s they would have laid you all day long.
To think we are about to witness something that may never be equalled again is enough for me without worrying about what is going to be second.
All that’s left to for me to say is good luck to Kauto Star, Paul Nichol,s Clive Smith, AP, Ruby and everyone else associated with the horse.
Go get em Kauto!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Good luck with that one, Grimes – connections swore they’d sorted Long Run’s jumping out before his last run.
Hello,
I agree with Bosranic, Madison is far too big at 40/1 (which I availed myself with Stan James).
My only worry is if the horse has lost some of his zest-I am sure if connections actually KNEW he was going to run to form, he would almost certainly be in single figures.
Outside Kauto, there are holes in all the competitors form (on reflection, Kauto could fall but probably not at Kempton). It is recorded Madison could easily take this if coming close to his previous accomplishments.regards,
doyley
I hope for the good of racing that Kauto wins. If you could race horses of different generations I would back Kauto to beat anything over 3 miles round Kempton including Arkle.
For me though there can only be one bet and that is Long Run in the without Kauto market.
Really disappointed about the weather forecast. Was really looking forward to a big performance from Planet of Sound for months now but it appears it will come up soft on the day, which won’t suit and just make his task even harder.
Saying that though, I don’t think it will stop him taking his chance as this has been his aim for the season.
Fingers crossed it will dry out as fast as Barney Clifford thinks it can.Sizing Europe confirmed a NR
With that and doubts over the going for Planet of Sound and a cpl of others (Forpadytheplasterer, Albertas Run & Riverside Theatre) can see Kauto going off very short
meant to add, that just can’t see anything troubling KS if he jumps ok & will be there to cheer him home
I am a bit miffed about my ante-post bets for the KG.
First bet Imperial Commander; who Twister withdrew and now wants to run, but can’t.
Then when the forecast seemed to suggest the ground would be good or good-soft; backed both Nacarat and Riverside Theatre.
Nacarat acts on soft, but may be at his best at 3 miles no softer than good-soft.
ie Doubtful stamina if soft/heavy.
Words that also apply to Riverside Theatre. Going up in trip, his chance would (imo) be greater no worse than good-soft.
I thought (like previous years) the race would be held at Sandown if Kempton was off.
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I wouldn’t worry Ginge. Nicky is a pessimist at the best of times and he tends to exaggerate problems
If it’s hock deep I would worry but soft ground?
The horse has encounter softish ground more times than not and never ran a bad race in it. He was beaten by Diamond Harry in a bumper and Hurricane Fly over hurdles but we know what they are capable off.
Arguably his win at Newbury was one ofhis best ever performances and the ground was plenty soft enough that day…….check the times.
Nicky will be more worried about whether he’s actually good enough or not than he will be about the state of the ground.
He wan’t that enthusiastic about Long Run either saying he might have gone off the boil yet WC was telling everyone this morning he’s in brilliant form and jumping like a buck at home.
Close your eyes and think of Britain mate what will be will be.
As I said Fist,
I think Riverside Theatre acts on soft. Question is: Will he stay the trip on soft?Got the same worry about Nacarat.
Value Is EverythingThere is some discussion on the Betfair forum about WH and Ladbroke refunding antepost bets on IC and Sizing as a goodwill gesture. Maybe worth asking the question to see what response you get.
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On Imperial Commander as well? hope your right I lost a few quid on him…..Believe it when I see it.
GINGE!! Nacarat isn’t going to go off like a bat out of hell which I assumed would be the case after the horse stopped like shot last year.
Tom George has already said he’s not going there to throw away second and will use the same tactics as he did at Wetherby.
It would be ideal for Riverside Theatre and The Nightingale if the pace was such they could keep in touch and travel within themselves but I don’t think Nicky Henderson will have much say in how WC rides his own horse Long Run.
With Nacarat unlikely to be forcing the pace WC best bet would be to be up there from the word go and try abd burn Kauto Star out wil a relentless gallop from a long way out. If he does use those tractice and the pace is strong, then staying becomes the name of the game which would really test Riverside Theatre and he may not get the trip. Most likely that’s what bothering Nicky Henderson. Personally I don’t rate Long Gun but if he did put in a really good round he has the engine to have an awfull of these in trouble pretty on but then the big question is will he be bale to take Kauto Star of the bridle?
If not and AP rides him like Ruby always has then he be well in command by the 4th last and then Long Run exertions will see him become a spent spent force very quickly and a sitting target for anything with 4 legs.
I’m very tempted to look at place laying Long Run in running for that very reason.
……..You’ve backed 5 horses? 
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