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Creating a tissue

Home Forums Archive Topics Trends, Research And Notebooks Creating a tissue

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  • #336399
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8697

    You certainly lived up to the big intro Ginge! :D I notice that Monkey,i mean reets not on your back harrassing you! Out of his depth on this one me thinks! :lol:

    #336401
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Not into esoterics, TAPK – better ways to spend my time than pricing up horses I wouldn’t back with your money. :wink:

    #336402
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    :lol:

    Value Is Everything
    #336408
    Avatar phototbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    I agree, it is all a matter of opinion, nobody knows who is right. One mans 3/1 is another mans 5/1 and all that.

    But I am still struggling to understand, sorry to be so persistent, but as I might be able to use it in my form study.

    Are you saying tb:

    A) Each runner is marked

    out of

    10 (or whatever) for everything (every subject taken in to account in the one rating)?

    B) Or, each subject (no matter who the horse is) is marked

    out of

    the same amount, and then totalled up in to a rating?

    C) Or, that every individual subject is rated

    out of

    a different number for each individual horse (could be out of 10 for one horse 5 for another or 3), and then all the figures totalled up?

    For C) one horse might be rated

    out of

    10 for distance, 10 for going, 3 for temperament, 5 for pace, 2 for jockey, 5 for trainer, 10 for last time out, 5 for old form. Sorry if I’ve forgotten something. All subjects adding up to 50. Then it works out a percentage.
    Another horse in the race might be rated out of 7 for distance, 8 for going, 10 for temperament (or rather -10), 3 for pace, 5 for jockey, 2 for trainer, 15 for last time out and 0 for old form. All subjects again adding up to 50. Then worked out to a percentage.

    You could use it use the pricing method to any of the above really, the most simple example is example A)

    The original OP stated

    I understand that in order to create a tissue for each horse you have to be able to rate each horse in the desired race, using a rating format..

    If anyone can point me in the right direction, I would really appreciate it!

    This is a method for pricing races using ratings, which ratings and how is up to the compiler but it’s quite a gentle way to start off.

    If you wish I could send you an excel spreadsheet if you PM me

    #336410
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    Thanks for the reply and offer tb.

    I don’t think it will be something I’d use.

    Thumbs up.

    Value Is Everything
    #336413
    Avatar phototbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    No problem Ginger, I don’t think it’s something you’d need anyway mate, but never any harm in broadening the horizons :wink:

    Offer extends to the original OP if you want a spreadsheet pm me

    #336424
    randburger
    Member
    • Total Posts 23

    Ive just been playing around with the idea of using ratings and converting them into tissues etc….

    Today, using just ratings from a national paper and doing the conversions into prices, then backing those horses with +EV has shown 2 16/1 winners, 12/1 winner and a couple more at shorter prices! Obviously I havent been backing these with cash, more just playing around with the idea!

    I understand you cant really just back these horses blindly but never the less, if you can find some ratings to trust, it can be a valuable tool to add to the arsenal.

    Tb, do you use ratings in this manner, if so do you use any paricular ratings?

    #336515
    randburger
    Member
    • Total Posts 23

    Tb,

    I tried sending you a pm regarding the spreadsheet, did you receive it?

    Cheers..

    #336546
    Avatar photokasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 660

    Given the importance of trainer form, I would be interested in expert views on how to account for trainer form in the case of Master Minded in the Victor Chandler Chase. Ordinarily he would be nailed on but given recent trainer trends perhaps the Henderson-trained Petit Robin is a better bet.

    #336550
    Avatar phototbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Have replied to your PM Randburger.

    It depends on how much importance you put on the trainer form. Master Minded is a far better horse than Petit Robin, you have to first and foremost look at the ability of the horse, all other points are trivial. I for one wouldn’t worry too much about the Nicholls factor.

    1/11 4½L, Carlicue[4/5F]11-5t
    2/19 2L, Organisateur[20/1]11-7
    9/19 21L, Like Minded[13/2]9-12
    3/9 19L, Kauto Star[4/7F]11-10t
    PU/9 The Nightingale[16/1]11-10
    6/6 107L, Escort’men[12/1]11-7
    3/17 10L, The Reformer[6/1]11-8
    2/7 1L, Pepe Simo[4/1]11-5
    3/11 3½L, Brampour[13/8F]10-12
    UR/9 Symphonick[3/1J]11-2
    1/11 3½L, Minella Stars[10/11F]11-0

    Runners from the RP since 13th of Jan, Organisateur ran a blinder travelling as well as the winner into the home straight, bumped the winner over the 2nd last and stayed on again after but a tough task giving the weight to James De Vassy.

    Carlicue walked round the track pretty much

    Like Minded was running off a 400+ day absence easily excused.

    Kauto Star would have been 2nd and a bit closer if not for his mistake, he may simply not be as good as he was now at 11.

    The Nightingale reported to have suffered a heart problem similair to that of Denman and the ground would have been riding to fast for him anyway

    Brampour again ran absolutely fine considering it was his debut over hurdles
    Escort Men was disapointing but out of his depth.

    The Reformer ran well in defeat, time will tell he had a very difficult task conceding weight to Chablais and simply wasn’t good enough.

    Pepe Simo put in a fine effort giving away 11lbs to Hendersons mare, he jumped poorly through out the race and considering those two factors done well to push the finish.

    Symphonic was an unknown package and I wouldn’t have a clear picture of that horse yet.

    Minella Theatre won on debut over hurdles with out too much fuss.

    Personally I feel the worry of the trainers form is being over played.

    #336563
    randburger
    Member
    • Total Posts 23

    Tb,

    Thank you for the spreadsheet, much appreciated..

    #336574
    Avatar phototbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    No problem, hope it’s of use

    #336580
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 34704

    Given the importance of trainer form, I would be interested in expert views on how to account for trainer form in the case of Master Minded in the Victor Chandler Chase. Ordinarily he would be nailed on but given recent trainer trends perhaps the Henderson-trained Petit Robin is a better bet.

    It is interesting that from January 2nd to Jan 15th 2010 Nicholls had

    0

    (Zero) runners. Although there was only 2 meetings.

    But in 2009 (with quite a few meetings) he

    did not have any runners

    over the same period either.

    This season he’s had 31 runners and just

    3

    winners (

    9.6%

    ).

    Compared to an over all strike rate in three years of

    24%

    .

    In 2008 he had 22 runners of which

    7

    won (

    31.8%

    ), including a treble on Lanzarote Hurdle Day.

    As I said in my earlier post, trainers in or out of form is not soley about winners, horses can run to form without passing the post first. And Nicholls has had quite a few run well. But the over-riding impression is that there is something effecting many (not all) of the yard. May be Reet is right, and it is the Flu Jab. Nicholls is definitely not in good form. However, his record in the second half of January in the last two years has been a lot better. Already had 1 winner.

    I think as far as Master Minded is concerned, I’d be more interested in what happens between now and Saturday regards Nicholls horses. Also, Master Minded has been a winner in January more than once before. Seems suited by this time of year.
    Henderson is in magnificent form, no wonder he is confident of running well. However, Petit Robin is going right handed and sometimes (although not always) jumped badly left going that way around.

    Value Is Everything
    #336735
    Avatar photokasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 660

    It seems like to date there is not enough statistical evidence to conclude Ditcheat is definitely out of form. However, following news of Kauto’s infection, I would imagine a frantic round of blood testing will be carried out on all the Nicholls runners in the next few days. I think it would be foolish to put a penny on Master Minded ante post at short odds because there is an obvious risk of his being pulled out suddenly on the basis of tests, like Dunguib was for the Irish Champion Hurdle.

    #336800
    Avatar photoJJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2034

    Fantastic stuff Gingertipster, extremely insightful.

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