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Apologies if someone has started a thread on this race but it gives me great opportunity to state a case for Somersbys chances. I know Master Minded is a Champion but at 1/2 he is worth opposing if you can see a horse who isn”t exposed to take him on,i believe Somersby is that horse,yes he was beaten easily at Cheltenham by Master Minded but i really dont think he was 100% that day,i am believing there is still improvement to come and 8/1 is very nice price,e/w for sure.
Is Somersby a definite runner? I think I read somewhere it depends on the ground whether he runs in this or something else.
HK wants to try him over a 20f/21f again and has aimed for the Graduation Chase at Kempton in Feburary but hes ready to run now so I think shes gonna go for the VC. Still not confirmed as such but shell need a vets cert/self cert at this stage. I have him at 20s & 25s NRNB for the Champion so not too bothered. Championship pace around Cheltenham should see him go close in March but I reckon he’ll ultimately end up going further…whether thats this season or next is anyones guess.
Petit Robin W/o Master Minded is the bet. Master Minded wont be beaten tomorrow or in March. Hes a revived horse and will be unstoppable. The only thing that can stop him is the yards form but its still below a 1% chance if you ask me…(exagerrating of course)
How on earth is Tchico Polos as far out as 25/1? This is a horse who on his seasonal debut beat home not just fellow runner Somersby, but also Twist Magic; a victor chandler and tingle creek winner himself (and would have been an Arkle winner too had he stood up). 25/1 are outrageous odds and i have gotten some of that action… twice!
I wont be surprised to see
Somersby
run Master Minded close tomorrow as i think he"s a serious horse,had the race been over 21/2m i would be pretty confident it would be very close between them. However at the prices
Kalahari King
is just too big at 25/1 with Hills and Stan James and the Totes offer of 9/1 Kalahari without the Master is worth the risk! I have always maintained that a horse that can show one piece of top class form amongst half a dozen dissapointments can achieve it again if circumstances allow it,it helps if the trainer just so happens to have the same idea as myself mind and in Ferdy Murphy i have the perfect allie! Up the Murphys!
Agree that Kalahari King is good enough on his best form to have a major chance tomorrow having finished third in last season’s Champion Chase but they haven’t even entered him this year. I think they feel he wants the longer Ryanair trip now so I don’t fancy him much over 2m.
They are going to look a bit silly if he wins having not entered him for the champion chase so I reckon Ferdy will be keeping him back for his best on 17th March 2011 – It wouldn’t be the first time now would it!!
Gauvain without Master Minded for me!
I think Masterminded will win. Not only does he look back to his best this year but he is a better quality horse than any of the rest.
Somersby has probably got a big race in him but I think he wants a bit further.
Crack Away Jack is my value selection. Emma Lavelle seems pretty bullish that he is fit. He goes well fresh as he has shown in the past and if he had not missed the kick then he would have been the 2009 champion hurdle winner. 16/1 is very fair as an each way proposition.
I would still think MM has to fail for Crack Away Jack or anything else to win though.
As for Cheltenham mind, too many overlook Big Zeb. I think that is the ante post bet of the moment for me. 7/2 suggests he is a definite second fiddle to MM. He might be but on similar ground his champion chase was quicker than either of Mastermindeds – Easy to be romantic about Mastermindeds soaring leaps which are breathtaking but Big Zeb has done nothing wrong.
Although Master Minded was tiring on that ground, my heart was in my mouth as Tony McCoy got lower in the saddle. My blood pressure wasn’t helped by AP’s unnecessary looking over his shoulder.
However, Master Minded jumped superbly, and as the old heads will tell you – a win’s a win.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I think there are a few jockeys who would have got the second home – should really have got him closer to the leader before they jumped the last.
Whichever race he goes for at the Festival I wouldn’t be rushing to support the runner up as he is turning into something of a nearly horse and there is a possibility that his best distance may be somewhere between the Champion Chase and Ryanair.
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On the contrary, I think Somersby has run a blinder, even allowing for Masterminded not being 100%, S has left good horses for dead from quite a way out.
Just hope that Henrietta finally sees the light, and allows him to run in the RyanAir,Agreed Reet,
I think Somersby has run a blinder. Master Minded was below form, but not by so much as some seem to believe. Somersby showed a deal of improvement. Time was a good one too (ground conditions better than the official). Take Somersby out and we’d be raving about MM again.
At last connections have finally allowed Somersby to be ridden more prominently. Outpaced at crucial times in the past, ridden this way he was only briefly outspeeded, close enough to come back at AP.If he were mine, I’d go for the Ryanair unless it comes up soft or heavy. But Hen is favouring the shorter trip at this stage. If again prominent would not rule him out of the Champion, particularly as he’s still improving.
Value Is EverythingGoing against the grain here but I thought it was pretty moderate form. Petit Robin was running over them when he fell and his departure put Kalahari King out of the race.
KK’s subsequent strong finish would have had to have had him in the mix without mishaps, therefore if PR and KK had been just in front/just behind or either side of MM and Somersby at the finish most judges would have been calling it a moderate heat for the grade. Rather than the front two being 20 lengths clear and strong form, particularly regarding Somersby.Master Minded still looks to me like a horse that is jumping to avoid pain. His jumps in the last half mile particularly the second last were not natural jumps for top steeplechaser, far too big (like Newbury last year).
He had more class than his rivals today and that and his bravery just got him home…also a bit of luck, as above.
Somersby will be aimed at the QM and I think there are 4 maybe 5 two mile chasers in Ireland that are better than him. He wouldn’t win the Ryanair either imho, all his best performances and ratings are in defeat and those types of horses should be carefully avoided.Master Minded is still making the market for the Irish two milers…I can imagine a 1-2-3 for Ireland in the QM. Thats my view…for what its worth.
If by "Irish 1-2-3" you mean Sizing Europe, Golden Silver and Forpady then I think You need to consider that Somersby ran SE to half a length in the Arkle as a 6yo when SE was 8yo. Theres every chance Somersby is improving faster than SE at 2m. Golden Silver has never run to his best at Prestbury and I doubt that will change this year. As for Forpady, Tom Cooper is still talking about 3m so the QMCC is very unlikely.
That leaves Captain Cee Bee – blood vessel breaker – very good horse but how reliable is he in a Championship race these days? he’s 10yo and those blood vessels aren’t getting any tougher. Is he getting any faster?
That leaves 1 Irish horse.
(If I haven’t mentioned one then I obviously dont think them worthy of mention for this race)
All about opinions
Sizing Europe beat Somersby last year fair and square
Forpady’ won an Arkle rather than placed
Golden Silver has a terrific win ratio, agreed his best form is away from Prestbury but so is Somersby’s
Cap’n CB is indeed fragile but clearly a quicker and more natural two miler than Somersby
And Big Zeb is simply on another planet to Hen’s horseI would be confident that 3 of them would finish in front of the tripless, winless overated Somersby.
Not fact but my sincere opinion.
If by "Irish 1-2-3" you mean Sizing Europe, Golden Silver and Forpady then I think You need to consider that Somersby ran SE to half a length in the Arkle as a 6yo when SE was 8yo.
By the way, 6yo is the optimum age for the Arkle, it was Sizing Europe who outperformed his age group stats and not Somersby who had the numbers but (as usual) not the result in his favour.
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Shabby
Don’t know how you work out that Somersby’s best form is away from Cheltenham, as (prior to today) his best hurdle run and his 2 best chase runs have all come at the course – his only 3 runs there, all in gd1 races, and in each one finishing as though he needed further. His trainer said afterwards it depends on the going what he runs in at the festival, imo, if it’s the RyanAir it will take a high class performance to deny him.
Btw, looking at the replay, and judging by the horses around him at the time of the incident and their relative positions at the next fence, Kalahari King lost probably 4 to 5 lengths owing to the interference, without which he would still have finished a long way behind Somersby who, once again given a stiff test, finished best of all to show improved form, and with the almost certain promise of more to come over further.What a finish!
I expected more overeacting on these pages after Master Minded failed to win by half the track, but pleasantly surprised to find out that isn’t the case.
McCoy, by his own admission, gave the horse a poor rode. Let him go far too early and nearly paid the price. Somersby was somewhat flattered to get that close to him and I would expect the Tingle Creek form to prove more reliable (Somersby beaten 8 1/2L).
Somersby has always performed with much credit around Cheltenham, but the result has always been the same – outpaced before staying on too late in the day past beaten horses.
Big Zeb has done nothing wrong this season, but has yet to put up a performance like Master Minded did in the Tingle Creek.
5/2 is a a huge price considering Master Minded has made it three wins in as many starts. I took the 5/1 earlier in the season, but if I hadn’t I would certainly support him at current odds.
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