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Kalahari King is a comfortable 3rd if not for Petit Robin driving him 20 feet wide after the dismount. Was not impressed as I had each-way at 25/1.
But life goes on, and in my other bets I had Walkon 12/1 each way (unlucky) and Sparky May 8/1 (won nicely), neither of them should have been such big odds though, especially Walkon!
reet
We will have to respectfully disagree over Somersby…’almost certain’ and ‘promise’ are definitely phrases associated with Somersby.
I must admit I love horses like Somersby, win prize money a small ratio of total prize money won, no one sure about his trip, always finishing well in defeat, his best top speed and RP ratings always in defeat, all his wins came in early season novice events when both hurdling & chases, never won as a mature hurdler, never won as a mature chaser, darling of the press, prominent in lots of ante post markets simultaneously.
He has got the lot.
A full house.I take your point about his best form probably being at Cheltenham…apologies, my mistake.
Shabby:
Somersby is all the things you say he is but the reason HK is still considering the QMCC is because this is the year to go for it. Next year he can go for the Ryanair, its not going anywhere whereas as an older horse Somersby is likely to lose some of that pace. I have my pocket to thank for my wish that Somersby goes the QMCC route but I agree that HKs reasons for doing 2m this year are very reasonable.
If he was yours wouldn’t you want to try win the QMCC this year and if that fails win the Ryanair or even try the GC later? Thinking of the long term, taking opportunities when they present themselves is a rational choice.
If he went to the Ryanair, he’d be taking on Poquelin and Albertas, Tranquil Sea and J’y Vole…whats the difference?
I Cannot understand why Somersby isnt entered in the
Gold Cup. Perhaps HK is waiting one more year to step him up
but i took 16/1 about him in November and was hoping she might change her mind. I am sure that he will prove to be a real Gold Cup contender in the years to come. Question marks remain abolut his stamina but for my money he runs like a horses who would relish the trip and track
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The Gold Cup?
I don’t think he’ll get the trip in the Ryanair- Total Posts 17716
He’s always been thought of as a Gold Cup horse, Fist, though his trainer thinks him quick enough to win a big one over 2m – despite plenty of evidence to the contrary.
As for him ‘running on past beaten horses’, Master Minded would’ve been one of them, in a few more strides yesterday.I think we are at cross purposes nulty, I agree with you that he should go for the QM. I think it is the obvious race for him.
I just don’t think he is good enough to win it. I don’t think he is good enough to win the Ryanair either.I had a look at last years Ryanair 3 or 4 times the other night and it was a brutal race, I was really impressed with Albertas Run performance in retrospect …a gutsy, classy ‘thou shalt not pass’ effort with the form holding up well. I just can’t picture Somersby having the legs or the will to go past in a similar heat.
The VC Chase was run faster this year than the last 4 years its been in its current format=
2008 Tamarinbleu 2m1f Soft 12 fences 1 omitted
6 ran TIME 4m 13.40s (slow by 9.40s)2009 Master Minded 2m1f Good To Soft 13 fences
5 ran TIME 4m 16.20s (slow by 12.20s)2010 Twist Magic 2m1f Soft 13 fences
7 ran TIME 4m 16.10s (slow by 12.10s)2011 Master Minded 2m1f Good To Soft 13 fences
9 ran TIME 4m 4.90s (slow by 0.90s)If you have taken a ‘fancy’ price on Somersby for the Ryanair it appears your money may already be firmly in the bookmakers satchels and if you take a price now the horse has to win – given the doubts never value at any stage in my opinion.
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If he was yours wouldn’t you want to try win the QMCC this year and if that fails win the Ryanair or even try the GC later? Thinking of the long term, taking opportunities when they present themselves is a rational choice.
If he went to the Ryanair, he’d be taking on Poquelin and Albertas, Tranquil Sea and J’y Vole…whats the difference?
Assuming Somersby is raised 5lb for Saturday (to 167) the only higher rated horse in the RyanAir would be Albertas Run, and then only by 1lb.
Were he to run in the Champion Chase, he would be likely to meet Master Minded (178) Big Zeb (174) and Woolcombe Folly (169), all on worse terms.Poquelin is rated 170.
Fair enough there is a bigger discrepancy in the ORs but Somersby put up his best ever performance in this race…why cant he put up a better one at Cheltenham?
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He probably will, Nulty, given as positive a ride as he was Saturday, but even then he ran like a horse crying out for further.
HK may well want to go for the glory, but, from a betting point of view, I wouldn’t entertain him in the Champion, whereas (imo) he’s only Albertas to beat in the RyanAir, and he’s by no means certain to run.Why isn’t Poquelin or J’y Vole a danger according to you? That was one race last year, they could easily get closer or past Albertas this year. Just one of those days.
If you could get 25/1 about Somersby for the QMCC, would you take it and urge him to run?
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Just that I think that Poquelin has probably plateaud, and though his last win looks good on ratings, he worked hard to beat nothing much, and showed little of the change of gear that’s characterised his previous efforts around the course. J’y Vole wasn’t good enough last year (the interference made little difference, imo), and nothing she has done suggests she’s improved since. Has 7lb to find on ratings, and all of her wins have come on soft or heavy anyway.
Not forgetting, of course, that Somersby will probably find quite a few pounds for the step up in trip. It’s fine hypothesising, but he ain’t gonna be 25/1, and HK will march to her own drum anyway.By asking you what price youd take about Somersby gives me a concrete and enveloping impression of what you think his chances are in relation to the field. If you wouldn’t take 25/1, that tells me you think he has little or no chance. On the other hand if you say you’d take 16/1 then he must have a chance. I think he has a 10/1 shot at it on first impressions. I’d take 16s because its value according to the probability of his winning the race IMO. That makes it entirely logical to try to win it.
Your right though, HK will do whats right and in my opinion thats not spurning an opportunity while its available.
I think McCoy’s view he didn’t give MM a good ride and Nicholls’s claim it was a ‘horlicks’ of a ride are both covering up the basic fact the horse ran and jumped well below par. Add that to the fact he met them at levels when he would have been giving lumps of weight makes his performance very lacklustre. He may well return to his best form but it does give everyone else hope in the QMCC.
As for Somersby HK seems to think the ground is the big factor for him and if it is not soft come the festival he may well struggle in either the QMCC or the Ryan.
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While it’s plain Master Minded wasn’t his imperious best, it’s equally clear that Somersby ran the race of his life; a point not missed by Tony McCoy about a horse he knows quite well himself:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/01/24/manual_114850.html
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