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Not forgetting, of course, that Somersby will probably find quite a few pounds for the step up in trip. It’s fine hypothesising, but he ain’t gonna be 25/1, and HK will march to her own drum anyway.
You would think the horse had never run over further than two miles. For those who think he ‘will probably find quite a few pounds for the step up in trip’ have a little look at what he has actually achieved on his two ventures over a longer trip. The last thing you want in looking for Cheltenham winners is guesswork when it comes to trip – it is not coincidence that the last two winners of this race (Imperial Commander and Albertas Run) both stayed three miles.
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Guesswork Stilvi?
I’d suggest the guessers are those who assume he won’t stay, after a quick scan of the form for 2 outpaced runs over 20F.
TBH would like to see Somersby go for Gold at the festival. It’s a wide open year and I think he’d stay fine. We’d find out if he was good enough.
Won’t happen though.
Being slow doesn’t make a stayer. He was outpaced coming down the hill at Cheltenham and hit a flat spot in the Victor Chandler. I’m not sure he doesn’t hit a flat spot in all his races.
IMO, if hes up putting pressure on the pace over two miles…hes closer to the lead when he hits the flat spot/outpaced and therefore has less ground to make up in the finish. There: the QMCC in the bag!
He needs to get first run on the field though
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He’s always been thought of as a Gold Cup horse, Fist, though his trainer thinks him quick enough to win a big one over 2m – despite plenty of evidence to the contrary.
As for him ‘running on past beaten horses’, Master Minded would’ve been one of them, in a few more strides yesterday.We’re talking about Mr and Mrs Biddlecombe here who think anything on 4 legs that they get that is half decent is a Gold Cup horse.
Before the Arkle our fav poster TAPK already had Somersby past the post but I just couldn’t see it because I reckoned he was just short of top class the same as he was over hurdles.
What I actually said and stick by it, he’s the type who will always run well without quite getting there.
IMO he’ll win a big one some day but it won’t be at the Festival He’d need a near miracle to win something like the QMCC or the Gold Cup.
Him running 2nd to Master Minded at Ascot isn’t good enough form to be taking to Cheltenham IMO
The reason he got so close is Maste Minded probably wasn’t at his best. PN rarely has his top dogs 100% in January with Cheltenham in mind and of course AP made a bollox of it when he overdone the easing down tatics…Master Minded lost so much momentum hewas lucky to hang on.
If you go back and look at the race Somersby was being pushed along AP was becoming a biy more animated and Barry Geharty was absolutely hacking and montionless on Petit Robin.
Had Petit Robin got over that fence the race would have been totally diffrent. I doubt If AP would have been in a position to ease down the way Barry Geharty was going and most likley Somersby would have finished someway back in 3rd…..that to me is his rightful place.
The Ryanir doesn’t have a great look to it at the moment but things will change dramatically before March. I certainly wouldn’t entertain Somersby at 10/1 win only let alone 4/1.
Probably the biggest change in the betting will come when Ferdy decides to give Kalahari King bit more excersise instead of walking round in circles in his box
Just don’t be surprised if he turns up and finishes well in front of Stearsby on the day because he is a class horse trained by a very very shrewd man.- Total Posts 17716
While it’s plain Master Minded wasn’t his imperious best, it’s equally clear that Somersby ran the race of his life; a point not missed by Tony McCoy about a horse he knows quite well himself:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/01/24/manual_114850.html
As much as I admire AP he’d have been hopeless in the Watergate cover up
He all but blew the race going to the 2nd last by sitting motionless for 15 strides on the approach which caused Master Minded to lose momentum………got bog all to do with Somersby who was given another opportunity when already well beaten. Master Minded showed a lot of class to be able to pick up again in the ground and just did enough to save AP’s bacon.Somersby raised to 170 (from 162), Master Minded dropped to 176 (from 178)
STILL THE MASTER?
The result of Saturday’s Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot – a second victory in the Grade 1 event for star two-miler Master Minded – was entirely predictable, but the margin of victory certainly was not, writes John de Moraville.Having looked, turning for home, like winning, as we had come to expect when he was on-song, at his leisure, Master Minded only scrambled home from Somersby by a fast-diminishing short-head.
A disappointing performance by the winner or should we now be celebrating the arrival of Somersby as a new star? In my view it’s a case of a bit of both.
Tony McCoy, deputising for the injured Ruby Walsh, was quick to blame himself for setting sail for home too early off what had been a very fast pace – a scenario borne out by the sectional times. But in the champion jockey’s defence, Master Minded was four lengths in front and still apparently cruising when he threw in a huge leap at the second-last – not the action you would normally associate with a tiring horse.
However, some of Paul Nicholls’ string have not been finishing their races with their customary gusto and, approaching the last, with Somersby staying on strongly, the picture changed dramatically.
Full marks to Somersby, only three races out of his novice season and improving significantly with every run. From the 156 he achieved in the 2009-10 Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications, last season’s Arkle Chase runner-up progressed to 162 after his third in Master Minded’s rescheduled Tingle Creek and on to a career-best 170 on Saturday.
Without Master Minded in the race, Somersby, twenty lengths ahead of third-placed Mad Max (155), would have run out a wide-margin winner. With scope for further progression, he should make another bold bid at Cheltenham, in his preferred race of either the Champion Chase on the Ryanair.
Master Minded, meanwhile, has had his rating clipped from 178 to 176, leaving him still top of the two-mile pile but only by 2lb from last year’s Queen Mother hero Big Zeb. Both are unbeaten this season.
Mention from Saturday’s race must also be made of last year’s Cheltenham third Kalahari King (162). The ten-year-old was almost carried off the track by the fallen Petit Robin (163) but for which he would have finished third. He could be on course for another profitable spring.
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So that’d me, Henrietta, A P McCoy and whoever’s raised tha horse to 170, who are all wrong – and Fist that’s right then?
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