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Even Nicky Henderson says there is not much between BP and BD, it’s all down to ground, BD likes it softer, BP is not effective on slow ground, but good to soft is perfect for him. If BP would have won his last race at Cheltenham not Ascot, he would be fav for this race.
What will finish second in Champion Hurdle – Buveur or Petit ? Any ideas?
Brain power
I hope Brain Power will finish 1st, but it’s racing, you can never be sure, and even if you are sure, sth unpredictable can happen, BP is my ‘banker of the festival, but we all now there is no bankers in this game
. Footpad is very good horse in the race with proper gallop, was closing the gap between him and Petit Mouchoir with every stride last time out, I could see him picking up the pieces.Actually I think Moon Racer has a chance to get better of The New One, I would leave him in Supreme just to keep unbeaten record at Cheltenham…Class horse wins Champion Hurdle, he is a big price at 7-1, but not always favs win this race. Good luck everybody who is with Brain Power! I expect Henderson’s horses to pull a bit clear from the rest of the field.
River wyldes for taken a nice boost today, could be an e/w at 10s with the market so volatile
Ignore that Ludlow form on soft, he is much better horse on good ground in the race with the proper pace. This horse has a profile to win Supreme, unbeaten in 3 starts in which he showed quite decent form, stays well, very good pedigree (by Oscar), so there is place for improvement. Henderson’s Oscar Whiskey was 4th in Supreme in 2010 and 3rd in Champion Hurdle year after. I was going E/W, but decided to put confident win bet. He has a chance if others will prove to be not as good, as some people think of them. I am hoping for some luck because my record in this race is poor, last year went with Min to beat Altior
I thought Min is the machine, another Douvan or Faugheen, now I look more how horses look ‘on paper’ – River Wyldes looks good in my opinion.Don’t change your mind!!! Follow your natural punting instinct, if you want oppose your original selection, put extra bet, cos your first selection might be the winner. My example: 2 years ago on second or third day of festival I had 50pounds E/W treble for Friday’s card – Peace And Co, Wicklow Brave and Road To Riches. On Friday it turned soft, so after Peace And Co won the Triumph I decided to cash out this bet, cos I thought it is to soft for Wicklow…, we all know what Wicklow did that day…bolted-up at 25-1. It was big relief when Road To Riches came just third…
Supreme – River Wylde E/W , backed Moon Racer in Nov but he will likely go to CH,
Arkle – Royal Caviar W/O
CH – Brain Power (NAP) (confident win selection cos it’s going to be good to soft on the first day, his last run was clearly the best performance we have seen this season in Britain and Ireland, can’t see anything threatening this horse), why Yanworth is on OR 164? handicapper clearly is a good mathematician but this game is not about maths…
CC- watch and enjoy
MH – Lifeboat Mona E/W without Limini
Neptune – Neon Wolf
AB – Death Duty, The World Ends W/O
Triumph – IF good ground Charli Parcs E/WI hope that Brain Power will show us how genuine is Yanworth’s 164 mark. Maybe I am wrong, let’s see…
Ask the handicapper, why Yanworth is 164 or Defi du Seuil 155 ? Even trainer doesn’t believe in this OR (DDS not in the Supreme). The best idea is to keep own ratings based of deep analysis of races, cos MR/MRS Handicapper does not always watch them….
All eyes on Ruby in the opener, Melon or not Melon, that is the question
‘MELON WOLF’;) for me in the Supreme.Favs to win:
Altior
Douvan
UNWMH
Yorkhill
Might Bite
Djakadam (ohh he is not fav.. yet)There is no bankers in horse racing, unless you are TAPK and you know that West Approach wins this, I can’t oppose WA for this race as well, although Death Duty was my banker of the season for the long time… I think he already reversed form with Wholestone (both horses run at the same meeting last time). Death Duty can win this, but I prefer West Approach.
Haha I just meant that Ham is right that at this stage Neon Wolf looks better on the paper than Charli Parcs. Well, If CHP fells again, he won’t finish in the top 5, but if stays on his feet will win (or get placed), definitely he will beat Master Blue Eyes even if miracle happens and Master Blue Eyes will run to his alleged mark 150. CHP on his first start for Nicky Henderson run to very solid (not questionable) mark 140, but shaped like 150+ horse, that’s why I think he is one of the best novices we have seen this year. If CHP hasn’t been running in Adonis, almost everybody would agree with me and he would be short fav for both Supreme and Triumph. I am not saying he is already a superstar, but he has a chance to be a decent horse in future.
neither are irish trained, Neon wolf also has form on gs he won easily…
Neon wolf is miles clear of CP at this stage, the form tells you so.You think that CP is one of the two best novices youv seen this year? On his two runs? he wouldnt place in the supreme, would be a performance to finish 5th in the triumph also
You might be right about CHP, cos he was disappointing on his last start, time will show how he will progress (if not regress). Neon Wolf is a good thing (not proven stamina, should run in opener, but H Fry knows better what the best race for him) You you were handicapper, what marks (OR) would you give Neon Wolf and Charli Parcs at this stage? Question for everybody.
You cant honestly think that charli parcs could beat neon wolf on any terms they meet on, he would gallop CP into submission
On the soft/heavy ground I would go with Neon Wolf, on any other ground I wouldn’t have a bet. I think Neon Wolf showed us a bit more than Charli Parcs. They are both the best novice horses we have seen this year in GB, we will know more about Irish ones in a couple of weeks.
And then magically he turns into a RPR141 god who’s a new-and-improved horse and over a stone better than 2 months ago?
LOL don’t take me for an idiot
Charli Parcs bolts up if he runs, simple as that buddy[/quote
I remember last year Black Hercules fell in race before winning at Cheltenham. Hopefully Charli will do the same, needs good ground though. Henderson always talked about him as a triumph horse, if it’s true that there is not much between B D’air and Charli Parcs, the latter one is most likely winner of this race.
Got a very uneasy feeling about this race. Three goes so far and been tempted in again.
Finian’s Oscar was my only runner but his form seems to take one knock after another. If you are on it is seemingly a case of praying that the step back up in trip is going to do the trick.
Neon Wolf’s very short price seems to be a triumph of hype over substance. Was that Haydock performance really that good? Is Elgin a great yardstick? Either way he is going to have to do more over a longer trip on ground that might be quicker than ideal.
I have added Messire Des Obeaux as he looks relatively solid but a similar case could easily be made for Monalee.
Finian’s Oscar vs Neon Wolf: first one is a very good horse, the other one is a class horse (visually more impressive, run in a better races than FO, which form worked out, clicked fast time in Supreme Trial with something left in hand)
Finian’s Oscar looks a bit to slow horse for Cheltenham and worrying is a fact that horses he has beat didn’t do much since. In my opinion Neon Wolf’s last performance was really good, you can see that even horse called Mohaayed, which finished 4th 15l behind the winner, came out and beat easily by 14l Volpone Jelois (OR 121), giving him weights. If ground will be on the soft side on the first day with no rain forecast, Neon Wolf should run in Supreme, he won’t face Charli Parcs, so it will be ‘easier race’ for him than Neptune.Constantine Bay underrated for this.
I like this horse, he beat No Hassle Hoff, giving him 7lb, but No Hasse Hoff got destroyed subsequently at Haydock by The Worlds End, despite receiving 7lb from the progressive winner. I think T George’s 6yo gelding, who is by Stowaway – (Beneficial), has a massive chance in this race. I am gonna back him on the day without Death Duty and take a chance with small rev forecast between these horses. I think last race won by The Worlds End was quite decent with some in form horses in it.
1 The Worlds End (IRE) 11/4 6 11-7 Tom George 135 * *
A P Heskin« 2 9 No Hassle Hoff (IRE) 9/4F 5 11-0 Dan Skelton 134 * *
Bridget Andrews« 3 16 Ballyarthur (IRE) 8/1 7 11-4 t Nigel Twiston-Davies 129 * *
William Twiston-Davies« 4 20 Progress Drive (IRE) 20/1 6 11-4 Nicky Richards 128 * *
Stephen Mulqueen« 5 4½ Report To Base (IRE) 4/1 5 11-4 Evan Williams 135 * *
Sam Twiston-Davies« 6 42 Another Bill (IRE) 25/1 7 11-4 Nicky Richards 130 * *
Craig Nichol« PU Theligny (FR) 13/2 6 11-7 Tim Vaughan 135 * *
Alan JAltior, Brain Power and Might Bite
huge chance I think, good luck!
. Footpad is very good horse in the race with proper gallop, was closing the gap between him and Petit Mouchoir with every stride last time out, I could see him picking up the pieces.
I thought Min is the machine, another Douvan or Faugheen, now I look more how horses look ‘on paper’ – River Wyldes looks good in my opinion.
‘MELON WOLF’;) for me in the Supreme.