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Alpha Des Obeaux in to 6/1 with some firms. The dream is alive lads! So many of us must be on at 20’s after the surge of support towards the end of last year. Just needs to get there now.
Mark Enright said in a preview last night “Alpha Des Obeaux is flying it at home, solid e/w but Coney for me”.
Coney now gone and Might Bite friendless in the market.
Good to hear a positive report from ME (albeit second hand reporting mentioned by someone on Twitter), I would like to hear official report from Mouse himself that all is well!
I did Might Bite at 10/1 and 6/1 for this race. I then had a saver on Coney Island at 10/1.
My feeling was that Might Bite was putting up a statement performance in the Kauto Star on Boxing Day, after having had my reservations about him coming into the race. I backed Frodon that day but he was beaten when he fell, the trip looking beyond him. The form of that race looks as good as anything overall in the context of the RSA and if Might Bite stays on his feet he will be hard to beat I think.
I would hardly say Might Bite is friendless in the market. He varies between 2/1 and a couple of bits of 10/3 but generally he’s less than 3/1 across the boards, still a firm favourite for the race and it could easily be one of those races where we look at it afterwards and ponder “Well that was obvious really”
Alpha Des Obeaux leaves me totally cold I’m afraid. As far as I can see, he owes his place in the esteem of the public due to running 2nd to Thistlecrack in the Stayers at Cheltenham. His form as a Chaser has not reached his official rating of 155 over hurdles, with his official Chase rating just 147 for now. He was last when odds on for his first chase and then won at 1/2 and 9/10 before his best effort over fences when third to Coney Island. He was pulled up next time, over the RSA distance of 3 miles and hasn’t been seen since.
I really can’t get enthused about Alpha Des Obeaux and for me he’s no value at 7/1, as I feel he needs to find a stone to be competitive on the day. I have to say that the Racing Post rating of 170 for Alpha Des Obeaux over hurdles must surely have been compiled when their ratings man was in the middle of the wettest of wet dreams, a real “Hammer and Chisel Job” to get the underpants off in the morning after.
I’ll leave Acapella Bourgeois because I always take the sceptical view of sudden stellar performances. In numerous years of watching racing it almost always turns out to be a fluke and if I am wrong then so be it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m with you Steve, that would have been some performance had Might Bite not fallen. A lot of the field have plenty of questions to answer, none more so than Alpha Des Obeaux who is probably a lot shorter in the betting than it should be.
3/1 ish for a horse that has obviously a serious engine. Fences to jump of course, but I feel he only fell as he had so much left in the tank and the jockey could have done better. If you want to be on a favourite that is not odds on like Douvan, then this is the one.Hi Steve, defo support from where he sits in the market, I just meant that in terms of previews, forums, social media etc he seems widely friendless with people rushing to oppose him / give reasons he cannot win. I have a bigish treble on Altior, Brain Power and Might Bite so if the first two oblige nobody will be cheering him on more than me!!
Not impressed with Might Bite at all. Doesn’t look like he has any guts and you need guts to win this race. I think his jumping will cost him and ultimately he will be out-stayed. Thought he was the lay of the festival yesterday; with Coney Island out he obviously has a better chance but I cant see him getting the job done. Whisper on soft ground, Alpha Des Obeaux on good ground.
I’ve backed Alpha Des Obeaux 20/1 and Bellshill 12/1 and I’ve Bellshill to win any race. I don’t think he’s good enough to win this but you never know..
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Alpha Des Obeaux leaves me totally cold I’m afraid.
You best put the Kettle on to warm you up then Steve because Alpha des Obeaux is trained by a maestro who can brilliantly decieve.This horse has had this one target for a year now.My concern is the burst blood vessel thing,he could jump the last with a 10 length lead and still get beat if that re-occurs..Fingers firmly crossed.I just hope Whisper doesn’t run in this.
Hi Steve, defo support from where he sits in the market, I just meant that in terms of previews, forums, social media etc he seems widely friendless with people rushing to oppose him / give reasons he cannot win. I have a bigish treble on Altior, Brain Power and Might Bite so if the first two oblige nobody will be cheering him on more than me!!
Hi Charlie, I thought you meant he was drifting in the betting with the “Friendless” analogy.
It’s common enough that people who missed the better odds on a Cheltenham favourite will then try to field against it. I take on board all the negatives for Might Bite but I don’t think anything else is remotely capable of doing what Might Bite did at Kempton on Boxing Day, when he would probably have won by 20 lengths from a field that contained two rivals now rated over 150.
In my opinion Might Bite is woefully under rated by the official Handicapper. He is on a mark of 154, while Frodon is rated just 1 lb behind on 153. Even if we allow for Frodon being better at 2 and a half miles, can anyone really say that he would have got a sniff of which way Might Bite went, had the Kauto Star race been over the 20F trip?
There is always the jumping to consider of course but I had Might Bite down as about to run a race that would see him rated over 160 at Kempton and if there is one horse in that RSA with the latent ability to be a decent quality winner of the race, I feel it is the Henderson Chaser, who won’t actually turn 8yo until the end of June.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Altior, Brain Power and Might Bite
huge chance I think, good luck!Cheers hayper
. Did that on the 31st December. Only £10 EW, but got 2.1 Altior, 13 Might Bite and 21 Brain Power. Hope all place, win would be 
I still think OUR KAEMPFER is the forgotten horse in this race and is still available at 20/1 !!
he finished third to Thistlecrack at Aintree over hurdles when ADB fell which all the folks on here think is a good thing and has only to improve a few pounds from its rating of 148 to feature here! Might Bite is rated 152 but admittedly could be even higher but the way Our Kaempfer won at Kempton I would hope he is going to turn out to be a 160 odd rated chaser and 20/1 seems a good price to me!!
I watched couple of Cheltenham previews, almost everybody oppose Might Bite for RSA. They say that he is flat track horse, got to much speed and you don’t need speed for this race etc. Why people DO NOT see he is a completely different horse this season and his Kempton performance (obviously without that horrible fall at the last) was outstanding – time of the race was very good, Royal Vacation franked his form subsequently winning at Cheltenham, but the most important: how well he was travelling!, kept running to the last like a machine, probably that’s why he fell. If he will be able to reproduce that form at Cheltenham and will jump well, he will be very hard to beat, doesn’t matter what price he will go off. But maybe I am wrong, cos I am not an ‘expert’ like guys doing Cheltenham previews…Just one more thing, if Henderson trains ‘flat track’ horses, why he does win quite often prize money at Cheltenham and has impressive record with 55 winners there.
If Might Bite is good enough he’ll win but some people will be against him as the Feltham has been won by Long Run, Grand Crus (faster than Kauto ran the same day) and Dynaste who all went on to get beaten in the RSA.
Usually a dour stayer wins the RSA chase. Bobs Worth, Don Police etc
I haven’t got a clue yet, Might Bite may well win but I can see why he’s friendless.
Might Bite seems to have really split a lot of judges. If the race was held round Doncaster or Newbury he’d be odds-on. He’s still the most likely winner, after all he might well have won the King George.
Whether he can get past American up the hill will be the question.
Looking through the race I think I’ll back Bellshill. Ignore last time when he was never put in the race and his form is good.
Beat Coney Island over hurdles at Punchestown (3 miles) always staying on. Not been 3 miles over fences yet and can see him and Alpha Des Obeaux plodding up the hill together.
Might Bite seems to have really split a lot of judges. If the race was held round Doncaster or Newbury he’d be odds-on. He’s still the most likely winner, after all he might well have won the King George.
Whether he can get past American up the hill will be the question.
The line through Champers On Ice to Royal Vacation, back to Might Bite suggests American has an awful lot to find with the Henderson horse if he is anything like the Kempton form on the day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
huge chance I think, good luck!
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