- This topic has 12 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
That you can apply to this one?
For me it’s several things:
1. firstly not to bet too big on day one. I’ve made the mistake before of betting my entire bank on the first day of the festival. Then I’ve been wiped out and sat there fuming for the rest of the week as winner after winner pops up that I would have backed.
2. Flexibility of thinking. One of the drawbacks of ante-post betting is that you tend to get stuck on certain horses. I think ideally you should approach the festival without any great pre-conceptions about what’s going to happen rather than being too rigid in your thinking. For example someone was mentioning in the racing post the other day how it was pretty clear early on last year that Mullin’s hotpots should be backed, not opposed, as he’s was in sizzling form.
3. Focus a lot on good ground horses. Soft ground sloggers dominate the winter months and their outstanding form tends to make them very short in the betting. This makes them dangerous betting propositions as punters then get stuck in, only to find that on quicker ground, the playing field is somehow much closer.
4. Don’t be too obsessed with finding winners. I think the mistake I’ve made in previous festivals, is that I’ve been too obsessed with finding the winner of each race. What I’ve come to realise, and Ginger will like this as he’s a value punter, that it’s more important to find horses that you think will do well given the conditions available, say good ground or having cheltenham form.
5. Remember it’s tough to find winners! This is similar to the point above, and what I want to say here is don’t get too disconcerted if you start badly. Cheltenham have the most competitive races in the world, so if punters are telling you it’s easy to find winners, don’t make the mistake of abandoning your earlier approach in a panic and lumping on every shortie you can find because you’re desperate to get a winner.
Anyway I’ll be interested to hear if anyone has any thoughts on this topic
I can’t believe it’s you who’s written such a sensible post.
6. Stick to your opinion, don’t get swayed by others.
7. If you’d happily put £100 on a 6/4 shot, put £100 on any horse you strongly fancy, even if he’s 25/1.
8. Focus focus focus. Don’t try and look at every single race at the Fez, because it’s impossible. I’ll only have a financial interest in 8-10 races at the most.
9. If the value is gone (like Yanworth 3/1), leave it alone. You’ll get poor backing horses at under-the-value-threshold prices.
10. Don’t do silly multiple bets. EW doubles are a good way to go, maybe occasionally an EW treble, but Yankees, Lucky 15s, 31s, 63s, etc are all just nonsense IMO.
11. A slight rehash of #5 but BE DISCIPLINED. If it’s not going well, be very careful not to start throwing money around on horses/races you know nothing about. There will be dozens and dozens of plot horses, and you’re not going to work out what’s going to happen in the 30 odd minutes between your horse losing and the next race going off.
12. DON’T. BACK. THE. SKINNY. ONES. 1 winner at evens and 1 loser at 6/4 = no profit. 5 winners at evens and 5 losers = no profit. Simply not worth it.
Happy to disappoint you Zark
completely agree with your point about the skinny ones. I was having this debate earlier with someone who wanted to lump everything on something at evens and was castigating everyone who dared to suggest otherwise. From my experience of backing even money shots is that you get ground down in the long run. And hype horses always get turned over at cheltenham. I guarantee at least two or three of the “banker” bets this week will get stuffed
like your point seven as well
Going back to point one, I think the main reason you don’t want to lump your bank on the first day is because you actually learn as the meeting develops. You start to notice what type of trainers or jockeys should be followed, what type of horses are doing well, what formlines are holding up. That’s why it’s daft to go in too big on day one, as you remove the potential to do well later
Happy to disappoint you Zark
completely agree with your point about the skinny ones. I was having this debate earlier with someone who wanted to lump everything on something at evens and was castigating everyone who dared to suggest otherwise. From my experience of backing even money shots is that you get ground down in the long run. And hype horses always get turned over at cheltenham. I guarantee at least two or three of the “banker” bets this week will get stuffed
like your point seven as well
Going back to point one, I think the main reason you don’t want to lump your bank on the first day is because you actually learn as the meeting develops. You start to notice what type of trainers or jockeys should be followed, what type of horses are doing well, what formlines are holding up. That’s why it’s daft to go in too big on day one, as you remove the potential to do well later
Errr your still trying to make something up in your head frkm earlier that didnt happen lol, re read what i typed and if you had any sense of what zarkava just typed youd understand that some horses at 7/2 are to skinny so leave it alone if you got on at 16s then fair enough…. because UKWIMH is 11/8 DOES NOT mean the value in that price has gone
Your a lost cause
Erm, no, I meant I would prefer to leave all skinny ones alone, even if they’re value.
1. Montelado was a real machine.
2. One Man might have won a few Ryanairs.
3. Kauto Star might have won a Champion Chase and a Ryanair as well.
4. Sprinter Sacre was just too good to be true.
5. The RSA remains a graveyard.
6. Ruby Walsh the most talented and versatile jockey to have ridden at Prestbury Park.… to be continued.
Erm, no, I meant I would prefer to leave all skinny ones alone, even if they’re value.
im glad you closed it off with saying even if there value
ill have a bit on harry 11/8? Thattl do for me
Heres some advice:
Enjoy the 4 days, dont take it too seriously and stick to your guns if a horse is 6/4 or 66/1 and you like it, back it……dont listen to a word me or anyone else here has to say, youll only become poorer
if it becomes as serious as this thread makes it – walk awayDon’t change your mind!!! Follow your natural punting instinct, if you want oppose your original selection, put extra bet, cos your first selection might be the winner. My example: 2 years ago on second or third day of festival I had 50pounds E/W treble for Friday’s card – Peace And Co, Wicklow Brave and Road To Riches. On Friday it turned soft, so after Peace And Co won the Triumph I decided to cash out this bet, cos I thought it is to soft for Wicklow…, we all know what Wicklow did that day…bolted-up at 25-1. It was big relief when Road To Riches came just third…
Preparation is the key!!
And don’t be put off by big prices!!
I think that’s a good point. A lot of the time I’ve been put off backing horses that I might have backed otherwise because they’ve been so big in the betting. I’ll think “they’re that big, they can’t be fancied” but then they win anyway. A good example of this was Capitane earlier in the season at Ascot, which I fancied when I first looked at the race, but when I saw that noone was tipping it and it was a big price and drifting, I left it alone.
The lesson here is to trust your instincts and don’t listen to tipsters that much. If there’s a horse that you might have priced up at 8-1 and it’s 16-1, rather than think it’s that big, it can’t possibly be fancied, see it as an opportunity. There are no “experts” out there, just punters who win some and lose some.
Preparation is the key!!
And don’t be put off by big prices!!
In a nutshell this is spot on.
1 winner can make or break the entire week and whether that’s one you have bet AP for months or bet on the day, it’s always worth keeping this in mind
Preparation is the key!!
And don’t be put off by big prices!!
In a nutshell this is spot on.
1 winner can make or break the entire week and whether that’s one you have bet AP for months or bet on the day, it’s always worth keeping this in mind
But surely if one ante-post bet could make or break your week, and you’ve bet say move with the times or finian’s oscar, you’re going to be absolutely sick?
if it becomes as serious as this thread makes it – walk away
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.