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I watched couple of Cheltenham previews, almost everybody oppose Might Bite for RSA. They say that he is flat track horse, got to much speed and you don’t need speed for this race etc. Why people DO NOT see he is a completely different horse this season and his Kempton performance (obviously without that horrible fall at the last) was outstanding – time of the race was very good, Royal Vacation franked his form subsequently winning at Cheltenham, but the most important: how well he was travelling!, kept running to the last like a machine, probably that’s why he fell. If he will be able to reproduce that form at Cheltenham and will jump well, he will be very hard to beat, doesn’t matter what price he will go off. But maybe I am wrong, cos I am not an ‘expert’ like guys doing Cheltenham previews…Just one more thing, if Henderson trains ‘flat track’ horses, why he does win quite often prize money at Cheltenham and has impressive record with 55 winners there.
Fair play to the King horse but I wouldn’t be touching this one at cheltenham personally
Very often appearances are deceptive… I advise to watch Christmas Hurdle, just assume Yanworth have has fallen 2 out (moment where he was staying again after being off the bridle) and try to think where this horse would have finished having not fallen… (we all know the fact that Yanworth stayed really well and won going away from The New One). Abut ChP we don’t know, we can just guess…I just know it was about 20lb difference between ChP and MBE on their penultimate performance.
This year’s Supreme doesn’t look the strongest event, seeing Ballyandy as a third horse in the betting 5/1, Melon as a fav, I don’t want watch this race haha. I hope ground won’t be too quick and Neon Wolf will go here. I haven’t backed him, but like this horse much.It looked to me like Charli Parcs had some issues during the race (maybe tomorrow we will know something more), horses are not machines…Whatever has happened, one thing I liked, he was staying again before falling. I don’t believe that MBE improved to much to reverse the form with Charli Parcs from their last run. Hopefully Charli will back on track very soon. I still think it’s plenty to come from this horse, we will see…
Nicky Henderson Stable Tour:
”Might Bite goes into the RSA. It was horrible at Kempton but he had a nice run around Doncaster. He’s been very good. Someone said to me the other day ‘will you be happy with him on an undulating track as he’s only ever been around flat tracks?’ Well, there are plenty of horses that have gone to Cheltenham having only run on flat tracks. It’s not a worry. His jumping has been good. It would be nice for Might Bite not to have to make it. He must have a powerful engine. It was going to be a staggering performance [in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase].”
Really disappointed about Thistlecrack, cos had a high hopes with this bet, which I placed before Hennessy:
Moon Racer
8.00
Win And Each Way
Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017
Native River
6.00
Win And Each Way
Hennessy Gold Cup
Thistlecrack
5.00
Win And Each Way
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2017
Douvan
1.66
Win And Each Way
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2017
Samcro
1.57
Win and Each Way
3.55 Punchestown (Race 7)
Altior
3.50
Win And Each Way
Arkle Chase 2017
Identity Thief
1.40
Win and Each Way
1.10 Punchestown (Race 2)I Don’t think Native River showed much form to win Gold Cup. He might have a chance if he will improve again and face slow ground. I have backed him in Hennessy, but it was a handicap race and he was carrying only 11-1, Smad Place (11-12) was just about 10L behind him. He won subsequently at Chepstow and Newbury on soft ground but form of that races is not really eye-catching. He won well at his last start at Newbury but time of that race was about 2.7s slower that time of Finale Nudge (OR 140) who won over the same distance on that day. Native River is a really good horse but to be priced 3-1fav for the Gold Cup…?
Everything can happen in this race though. ‘Paul Nicholls backs Native River to put smile back on face of Colin Tizzard’ hahaNah just back it anyway if that’s your gut feeling of the winner. Assuming you haven’t already.
The worse thing you can do is come on these forums and be put off a winner because of what people on here have been telling you, as I’ve found to my cost lately.
A lot of truth to this.
Backed him already in couple e/w acca…
I watched Might Bite in action at Cheltenham, got a mixing feelings. Paradoxically he had the worst run was when won at Cheltenham on his first start at this track over hurdles. Jumped really bad on his chasing debut when well behind More Of That (Tracked leaders, mistake and rider lost iron briefly 9th, jumped big and not fluent 11th, ridden after 2 out, weakened last). It wasn’t bad performance behind Matorico carrying top weight (it looked like he did handled the track, it’s my subjective opinion though). I think Might Bite improved a lot this season, he is just 8yo and had a 5 starts over fences, I hope plenty to come from this horse…it’s my gut feeling.Lies, damn lies and statistics. Go back and watch the races and you’ll see a lot of quirkiness.
It might be true, I will need to watch races to have a say…
I don’t know how many runners he’s had but Scorpion 0 winners at the cheltenham festival….
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PostsNot the best breeding, but maybe Henderson will get first winner with ‘Scorpion’…Accapella Bourgeois rated 4lb higher than Might Bite :scratch
Might Bite if jumps fences will be hard to beat. He did travelled so strongly at Kempton before fell at the last, form of that race worked well and time of that race was really good (Thistlecrack and Cue Card run on the same day over the same distance). Might Bite has quite decent record at Chentenham, so I would be careful saying he is ‘flat horse’ (1st, 5th beaten by More Of That 13.5L, 7th beaten by Matorico 5.5L). This horse improved massively since last season, stays really well 3 miles, hard to oppose him, cos nothing stands out from the other horses aiming RSA. It’s just my fancy, he is not my banker of festival, but if things go well during the race he will win well.
I think 2 miles might be a bit to sharp for Yanworth on the good ground in the strongly run race. Henderson knows that fast pace won’t help Yanworth, he will look after what suits his horses best, Brain Power would love fast pace. I expect Yanworth to be fav on the day, but it is very open race…
Yanworth wins today even if he will show ‘not the best performance’, no doubt about he deserves to be fav for CH, hope he will jumps this time like a CH Hurdle horse..Ch’tibello/Irving probably will fight for second.
It can run crap race tomorrow but will be ready for Cheltenham… Moon Racer to go to CH…?”Why not..Pipes are great believers…”
I also really do like Charli Parcs Kempton performance. Although it wasn’t high-class race, he beat very easily by 8 length quite decent horse Master Blueyes giving him 5lb. Master Blueyes subsequently came 2nd to another interesting Henderson’s horse Divin Bere, who is entered in Triumph Hurdle. I am only racing enthusiast,not an expert, but I think from the way Charli Parcs was travelling at Kepmton (jumped well, had the race in his control 3 out, showed plenty of speed,had a gears, finished very strongly) that he might handle Cheltenham hill, it’s just my guess. Time of that race was good, Charli Parcs (11-3) won at 3m 47.95; day earlier Yanworth (11-7) won the race clicking 3m 44.9; on both days ground was pretty similar – good, good to soft in places. Taking into account that Charli Parcs had a bit of petrol in his tank, I can say that his performance was excellent for a 4-y-o horse on his only second start over hurdles. Definitely he much improved from his first start at France, Poker Play who was 1 length behind Charli Parc was disappointing at Kempton – well beaten by Fidux, which subsequently run average race in Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial at Musselburgh. It hard to judge 4yo horse having seen his only 1 start at flat track, there is lot of things we don’t know: how consistent he is? (some horses have promising starts and then disappoint for some reasons), how much he finds for pressure,stamina?will he handle other that flat tracks?will he progress? We will know just a bit more after Adonis hurdle. Not much time between Adonis and Cheltenham festival though, I won’t be surprised if Charli will get parked at Aintree bypassing Cheltenham…
If Buveur D’air wins, it will be very very poor Champion Hurdle…I respect this horse (was 3rd in the Supreme behind Altior and Min, beat Petit Mouchoir at Aintree, which was 40-1 shot that day and improved a lot since. Definitely BD’air is well above his official handicap mark, but would need to improve massively in order to be a CH winner. Most likely winner in this race is Yanworth. Unknown quality is Brain Power, Petit Mouchoir could have his word as well. It’s just my opinion… if everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking.
I need to update my previous post, cos I have seen few more races since I posted it. Well, I have to change my mind and decide to lay Yanworth for Champion Hurdle, I think handicapper got his rating wrong. But if he is right putting Yanworth got a to a mark 164, it means Yanworth wins or coming very very close.
Couple of reasons why Brain Power at 7-1 is a cracking E/W bet for CH :
– no Faugheen or Annie Power in the race, no Yorkhill (?)
– ultra-progressive type suited by fast pace, which he definitely will have in CH (MTOY and Petit Mouchoir most likely to go to the front)
– OR 162 (just comparing with few market leaders Buveur D’air 151, Yanworth 164, Petit Mouchoir 162) but might be a bit underrated in my view. In the last run at Ascot he beat Consul De Thaix (140) very easily by 5 lengths giving him 1 stone, horses like Golden Spear, Pyromaniac, Modus were well behind. That Ascot contest was hell a lot of good race, grade 3 though. Shame we haven’t seen CDT at betfair hurdle against Ballyandy…
– Brain Power is a 6-y-o trained by Nicky Henderson who won this race 5 times, last year 2nd to Annie Power with MTOY, yard in cracking form (Altior, Might Bite, Charli Parcs – who is yet to show his real face;-)). Just for the record more than 50% of Champion Hurdle winners were aged 6 or less.
– seems to handle good, good to soft ground very well; question mark about soft one. Although hard to say he won’t handle soft ground, was well beaten on soft at Cheltenham, but it was on the first outing this season and left that form well behind him. Pedigree suggests he will handle any ground, is by Kalanisi – sire of Katchit, who won Champion Hurdle in 2007.The only worry is whether he will handle Cheltenham track, most of his form comes on right-handed tracks and was well beaten on his only run at Cheltenham. I think at 7-1 E/W is worth to check it…This year is not so easy to pick the winner in this open race
