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That Cuecard offer Steeplechasing refers to sounds like a bet to nothing, so good spot.
As for not so lil’ ol’ me…if you told me a week ago that I was going to back Long Run I would have seriously baulked.
However, lying in bed last night (rather coquettishly I may add), I started to think…"what could beat Long Run?"…and you know what, I could not come up with a half-decent riposte?
Like many on here, I don’t think Cue Card will stay. Giant Bolster wants better ground and Grand Crus is a risk….but the only danger IMHO if back to form.
I’ve never been a big fan of Long Run, but he’s obviously a useful tool, and though his form has plateaued, he really is the most eye-catching option. We know he goes on the ground and track and his last run, though not spectacular, should have him ripe for this. He’s also a safe jumper, if a little scratchy.
There is always the chance something, like Kauto Star last year, takes him off his feet and he cannot cope, but on the forecast heavy going (and there is more rain coming to Kempton), this really should be his 4th big prize. That was in retrospect a tremendous run behind Kauto, no shame in being beaten by the best chaser ever fair and square.
It’s there for the taking.
So I took £60 at 2-1, which is a big bet for Zippy
I reckon the money will come for him on the day and he may end up nearer 5/4.
Zip
Really odd that both should suffer similar injuries around the same time.
I certainly don’t think Big bucks will be retired – it doesn’t sound that serious.
I guess this is the chance for Henderson to wrest the trainers’ title – he’s as short as 1/3.
Zip
Loads of promise for Sir Des Champs. He’s definitely a Gold Cup contender in my book.
Flemenstar is an impressive machine in the right conditions, but is he soft ground-dependent?
Like you guys, I’d love to see him take on Sprinter Sacre, but surely he’ll go for the Ryanair instead (?).
Zip
Admiralofthefleet,please do not attempt to victimise me here….I merely responded to elgransenors sweeping statement that "Kauto Star was the best chaser seen in the past 40 years" and it escalated from there !
There is no harm done with healthy discussion about the matter and if you want to create a thread about that…be my guest..though I feel everything has been said about it all now,and we are just entering the world of "tautology".
Change the record, Arklesupreme.
This Kauto V Denman subject is surely worthy of a separate thread. (although Kauto was clearly the better all-round horse as Bosranic cogently outlined)
You’re coming across as a third-rate late night DJ. Fancy a training course on devil’s advocacy?
As for Long Run, the horse has plateaued. We know he isn’t the best jumper around and I personally would look to oppose him every time, unless a short price in a weaker race (one of those warm-ups for the big ‘un).
Zip
I really faniced For Non Stop, which I backed at Aintree (twas the only winner I backed that day
).I have been put off by the comments about his weight, and yes, he could have been eased a bit at Aintree instead of being encouraged to decimate the field.
Still, lot to be said for an unexposed horse on good terms with himself.
Hmmmm, I thought 9/1 was worth a punt, but I’m wavering now.
Zip
I should have taken your advice Steve C.
Well done on picking Kelinni.
Galileo’s Choice was arrant pants. Very disappointed as he had a good position the whole way round.
Surely he’s not that bad/soft ground dependent?
Mount Athos was a tad unlucky.
Zip
I really enjoy watching this spectacle and you usually get a run for your money.
I strongly fancy Galileo’s Choice.
He’s a beast I’ve been following for a while and I think he has the right blend of speed and stamina…and weight on his back!
Had a good preparation and the trainer knows the score.
12/1 (Hills) still a fair price IMHO.
Maybe I should do a RFC with Dunaden?
I hope this is my third winner in this enjoyable frenzy….and it’s worthwhile freezing my balls off in the living room at 4am
Good luck all!
Zip
I would have loved to have watched Kauto again…and again…and…
He is the only horse, for me, that really stirred the emotions when watching a race over the last few decades… (too young for Aldaniti…but Goldikova was something special.)
The connections know the horse best and they obviously feel Kauto could no longer cope in top company.
The way he came back, when many said he should have been retired, was truly the stuff of legend. I really struggle to believe another horse will win the grade 1’s he has…but ya never know!
In a funny way, the timing is exquisite. Kauto is arguably the best chaser ever. He travelled and won beyond Blighty and won top races over a long career at a variety of trips and tracks.
Now that, Frankel fans, is what makes a
GREAT
horse.
Zip
Actually, I think that was a good piece from Nick Mordin – and he made many good points. (thanks for posting).
In what sport, other than racing, do the best competitors only stay in one country competing against the same opponents again and again, when there are other genuine competitors to take on in different conditions?
Is the best tennis player there has ever been, one that wins Wimbledon 10 times but never wins another Grand Slam?
I
DO
put credibility on being able to travel, compete on different surfaces and beat the best other countries have to offer in their race conditions. It’s very conceited to think the horses Frankel has beaten makes him the greatest horse ever. Not so much rose-tinted as Looney tunes.
I think the
greatest
sadness, as I mentioned in another post, is that if you asked Frankel if he wants to go overseas and prove himself, he’d raise an eyebrow that would suggest that was a damn crass question – of course he does, he wants to be the undisputed champion of all time!!
…then again, he would have to have eyebrows and be able to talk, but you get the gist.
Zip
Twas a good performance in the Champion Stakes…but not one belonging to the greatest ever.
At least we know that he’s better on good ground, and that 1m 4f on soft would be too much IMHO against top opposition. I do think, on good/GF, he could win G1’s over that distance, such is his superiority.
Although it’s been great watching this beast, personally, I will always find his career tinged with sadness. What could have been….could he have proved himself the greatest ever?
I actually feel sorry for the horse. Like any champion, if you asked him if he wanted to go and compete on the biggest stage (overseas) aginst the strongest rivals the world has to offer, he’d probably be quite keen
I do think he still could have proved so much, either way. I also think his stock would have risen, justifiably so, to the current hyperbolic levels, rather than the claims of
greatest
ever feeling a little hollow.
So, perhaps we could have a poll:
What would Frankel say if he could talk and was asked if he would like to go and "fight" at the Breeders Cup and then the Dubai World Cup?
a) No thanks, I’m awfully tired of all this and would rather become a media consultant henceforth.
b) Hmmm, maybe. (i.e. making ambivalent noises as he wants a MONSTER match/win fee..like any self-respecting champ).
c) You betchya…lemme at ’em!!!
I think C, unequivocally.
Zip
I don’t know why connections seem so scared/worried (whatever the word is) to truly test this horse, especially on an international stage, which they need to do IMHO if they want him to stand proudly in the pantheon of greats.
I understand the stud aspect, but what harm is there in racing him next year, he’s only had 14 races in his life after tomorrow, and surely if he could prove himself across on foreign soil and at a mile and a half, that would demonstrate his versatility and ability to travel and compete on different surfaces (Breeders Cup Classic/Dubai World Cup)?
Zip
Definitely not the greatest, but who is?
I feel despondent that this horse has not been tested more, and that IMHO, is partly due to competition in his chosen races, and partly due to the lack of adventure by his connections.
I will always feel "what could have been…" with this horse, but his 2000 Guineas victory was the best performance I’ve seen in that race and did announce his as a superstar in waiting.
Zip
Well done Venture to Cognac, excellent pick.
I did Olympiad – well backed, but wasn’t going to win from a long way out.
This is a really fun race to bet on/watch. Something different from the norm.
Zip
Firstly, beating St Nic and Farhh like that was mesmeric.
I just wish we could find some horses, any horse, to put a gun to his head and see what happens.
Secondly, he is very good, folks – but a Gold Cup?
Maybe we should have sent Frankel to Mars instead of the Curiosity rover?
I wish he’d gone for our Derby, which I did say at the time – but perhaps he wasn’t ready for it? Or maybe connections just thought he would be a stellar miler.
Thirdly, Black Caviar’s connections showed real balls bringing her over here so she could beat the best Europe has. I give them a lot of kudos for that. Why can’t Frankel go over to the the USA and prove himself?
Lastly, I would love to see him race next year – any chance of this? It would surely make sense to attempt to win the Dubai World Cup with him as he could potentially beat the world’s "best."
Zip
Thanks for that, Meerkat.
We are all agreed the fruit machines are not random? The sequences they pay are within their set payout boundaries and are pre-programmed to occur when it wants to pay a win.
I can’t knock what you say about the roulette – we would need the honest opinion of other shop anagers and the figures to compare and contrast.
I still feel the way the machine plays is more important than the way the punter plays.
My hypothesis meant that no matter what bet the punter placed, they would either hit the hot patch or get totally shafted. So whether they place a spread of bets totaling £20 or £10 on two numbers – the machine would pay out/or not to hit it’s percentage at that time.
Zip
Meerkat – thank you for providing those figures from your shop – which made interesting reading.
Do you see less punters win on the FOBTS, say, compared to three years ago? Do you see any unusual patterns? That a machine is either on suck mode or dump mode?
Would it be fair to say, that the way the machine plays can affect the way a percentage is reached?
The hypothesis being: That if a FOBT machine was programmed to shaft punters continuously and then throw in a big win or streak, thus making it more addictive IMHO, would that not prove the machine is not random? It is surely homologous with a fruit machine?
I thought Dispatches was OK – could have been a bit more investigation into how FOBTs work both mechanically and psychologically – but I guess until there is proof – no journalist would want to take the risk of questioning their legality.
Zip
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