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For all of you trends-followers out there, 7 of the last 8 renewals have been won by horses whose names have began with a ‘K’, so it must be time to put your mortgage on Kauto Stone
In all seriousness though, my reason for starting this thread now is with regards to my early selection Grands Crus. Depending on which side you fall on on whether he’ll win the Paddy Power or not, now could well be the time to get on. I’m personally not all that sure, and am willing to take the chance of seeing him lose on Saturday and watch the price swell for the race which would surely suit him more. His Feltham performance last year was as good as any staying chaser during the whole of last season in my opinion – novice or otherwise. He clocked a quicker time than the great Kauto Star did just an hour later which puts him bang there, especially if he’s progressed since.
Sorry if you’re on him for the Paddy Power Saturday but I’m crossing my fingers he loses to squeak a bit more value out of those stingy bookies
Will Long Run win again i don’t think he will my tip is
CAPTAIN CHRIS at 9/1.
He always runs well going right handed tracks last season and won Arkle well though it be a step up in trip i think it be perfect for him.
I’m with you on Captain Chris but it’s a huge gamble at this stage. Both he and Wishful Thinking are due to run about 1 month before the King George and Hobbs won’t make a decision on which will run but as The Highlander said "There can be only one". His plan is to keep the two apart at this early stage of their careers.
Having had the speed to win an Arkle the course would certainly suit Captain Chris more than it would Wishful Thinking’s run them into the ground style so if all goes well the Captain does look favourite to turn up.
Obviously Long Run is a danger to all but he may find taking on young up and coming chasers much tougher than he did beating Kauto Star and Denman who are clearly on the downgrade.
Long Run is young enough to go on and win 3 or 4 King George’s but I have a sneaky feeling we;ve already seen the best of him. He’s had some really tough races in his short life and could easily take a sickner to the game and spit out the dummy. Personally I don’t trust the horse.
Of course we are assuming old age has caught up with Kauto Star but he ran so flat in his races last season there’s a slight chance it was something physical. Wishful thinking perhaps, but there would be a lot of his fans happy and cursing themselves at the same time, if he bounced back and hacked up.
6 years old and we’ve "already seen the best of him"? Surely last season proved to all nay sayers that Long Run is the real deal. To say he’s going to struggle against his "younger rivals" is another odd remark considering just about ALL of last years novices who pose as any sort of threat to the top league are 7 years old or more… older than our champion Long Run…
Odd remark perhaps but considering Long Run was winning races 2 years before the likes of Capatain Chris had seen a racecourse I think you get the jist of things and younger doesn’t mean didly.
To be honest he has way too many miles on the clock for my liking although respect to Nicky Henderson who has nipped that in the bud by reducing his racecourse visits dramatically.
My main worry is he’s not a straightforward horse,leopards very seldom change their spots and he could very quickly go back to walking through the odd fence, sulking and spitting out the dummy.
Racing is very much about being in the right place at the right time. e.g. Would Kauto Star have won all those races had he and Arkle been born in the same era?
Long Run has come to the fore when the old brigade are clearly on the way out.
If you think for one minute he’s going to dominate like Kauto Star did I reckon you should take a pull and wait and see on that one. The new brigade like Time For Rupert, Wishful Thinking, Captain Chris and a very good Irish horse who’s name escapes me will be coming at him from all angles.
If he can brush them aside then we can start talking real champion until then to me he’s just another right place at the right time who I think may disappoint a lot of people in the coming season
Horses that have done well over shorter distances do well at the King George (let’s not forget, Dessie and Kauto were Tingle Creek winners, then there’s the likes of Edredon Bleu – and One Man’s Cheltenham Success was a Champion Chase), so step forward…Master Minded.
He’s looked like he wants further for ages and his Melling win was very encouraging.
Sixes is a good price, IMHO.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Having backed Long Run last year, I’m convinced that he will take all the beating once again. His only serious challenger would appear to be Master Minded, although I’m quite dubious over his chances of staying a fast run 3 miles – even at Kempton.
According to Sam Waley-Cohen, Long Run is better than ever and will probably take in the Betfred Chase at Haydock prior to Kempton – and will then be given one prep race before defending his Gold Cup crown at Cheltenham.
I will not be betting against him.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I’ll light a camp fire and picnic on thin ice on a lake of your choice if Master Minded gets 3 miles. He was one of the fastest 2 milers I ever saw and every inch of his make up shouts 2 miler.
That was a terrible race he won over 2 1/2 miles and 3 miles at a helter skelter pace will surely be way beyond his stamina limitationsI know One man, Desert Orchid and Kauto were exceptions to the rule but not many make the cross over.
He does travel well but he’s also quite a hyper beast who really takes off at his fences expended precious energy which is a huge minus to a doubtful stayer
Sizing Europe is a classic example of a very fast horse who couldn’t crack it and there’s not many in training travel better than he does.
Another minus could be is he one for a fight? he either wins by miles or spits the dummy out when under pressure’ Somersby did run him close but came from way back so we couldn’t categorise that as a head to head.
If he’s your idea of the main danger I’d demand to be paid now
Well Master Minded certainly proved me wrong yet again but what about Kauto Star?
I said in an earlier post there was a slight chance it wasn’t old age catching up with him and there may just have been something amiss last season.
Seems there is more than a slight chance as he’s bounced back to something like his brilliant best and kicked Long Run into touch.
No matter what anyone says that performance was not just a bounce back to something like his old form. That performance bettered some of his previous wins in this race and some other less classy efforts we won’t get into.
The time indicates it was a well above average Group 1 and he has after all won by 8 lengths with the up and coming Wierd Al who was travelling as well as any turning for home 2 lengths further back.
Any other year and Kauto would now be 4/7 for the King George but his age and the fact people who said Long Run wouldn’t need the run are now thinking he must have.
In my very humble opinion if Kauto Star goes to Kempton in the same form the only horse who might shake him up is Captain Chris because he’s unexposed has youth on his side and we don’t actually know how good he is.
As far as Long Gun goes he met the real Kauto Star today and he’s clearly not in the same class and anyone who takes the current 6/4 needs to check themselves into Crichton Royal. If you live south of the border just head into Scotland and turn left, you cant miss it we treat our visitors well
Seriously though, If you believe Kauto Star ran as well in the King George last season as he did in the Betfair Chase yesterday then 6/4 Long Run is probably about right but if not Kauto Star could be the best bet at 11/2 with VC you will ever see in your life.
Very good chance on the day less than 8 will turn up as it does look very much like a 3 horse race. Can’t see Master Minded running now that Kauto is back, Wishful Thinking certainly won’t run if Captain Chris does, Somersby might but will be wasting his time, Kauto Stone goes to Ireland, then you have nothing that would appear to matter.
Kauto Star 11/2 EW cracking bet.
I’d say Master Minded will definitely run HGM, this has been the plan since his win at Aintree last season. His two runs thus far this season have been stepping stones towards that ultimate goal.
I’d be surprised if Long Run isn’t at least a lot closer to Kauto than he was yesterday. Kauto Star was 100% at Haydock and the King George would be something of an afterthought I would think. There’s not a lot of time between now and then and I would rather see Kauto go straight for the Gold Cup than Kempton.
Long Run has been impeccable both times he’s been to Kempton and yesterday was just a prep for the King George. He will definitely improve. That’s not saying I think he’ll win it but that run will surely have brought him on.
The horse I’d like to see in this is Jessies Dream, but there’s not much news about him lately and I’m not sure what plans connections have for him.
As for the Gold Cup, I’d be against Long Run. We saw what happened in the RSA when he came up against a top class opponent at the peak of his powers, and I think that will happen again when he meets Quito De la Roque.
I’m at my wits end where Master Minded is concerned. tbh my mouse was hovering over him yesterday thinking will I won’t I and ended up saying to myself don’t be stupid and backed Medermit
I just can’t see how they expect him to get 3 miles. Not against Kauto and Long Run that has got to be bordering on the impossible.
I’ve always thought the only reason was to keep Clive Smith happy and have something new to look forward to. No need now by the looks of thing would be interested to see what alternatives are available for MM.I said a couple of times Nicky Henderson was likely to have Long Run below his best for this and although Reet pointed out the race value was more than the King George it’s more to do with the length of the season than it is the prize money. The pot of Gold comes in March and there’s no sense in being mega fit at Haydock if you’re the reigning champ. Much better if you are just fit enough and hope your class sees you through.
That’s the big worry now with Kauto. It’s along time since he was turned out first time as fit. The fact Ruby reckoned he had left his race at Ascot when beaten by Denman is hard to forget and the worry must be he may not recover from yesterday’s exertions in time for Kempton. I’d imagine he’ll do very little for 10 to 16 days then if he’s fully over it the chances are he could be spot on for Kempton but at his age and the Ascot saga in mind there’s no guarantee
Realistically Long Run should be the one to benefit and there’s no ignoring Long Run seems to love the place.
I don’t think there was any fluke about Weird Al making the big 2 work for their money and he’s hardly the best young chaser in town. Not far way but I reckon Captain Chris is a better horse and all things considered he must have every chance of turning them both over.
Tough race to call with any degree of certainty.
What is easy to call is it will have to be the slowest run Gold Cup in history if Quito De la Roque is going to win it.
He couldn’t even go the gallop on good ground, in a good year let alone win it.
Decent horse but miles too slow the way Gold Cup are run these days, he’d be tailed of by the time they got top the top of the hill IMO
PS You won’t see Jessie’s Dream before the turn of the year and most likely not until late Jan early February. If they’re Irish just ask me It’s my Island
I think people are under-estimating Quito big time. He’s won over 2m 4f and looked plenty quick when winning at Punchestown in the spring. Forget about his last run, he won despite his setback, as a result of the front too going for home far too early. I’d say I’m starting to sound like an old record harping on about him but in an open year I really think Long Run and co will have their work cut out to beat him.
Thanks for the info re Jessies Dream, I presume he’s had a setback and it’s not by design that he won’t be out until then?
THM: I agree with you re missing the KG but there is no way they will, after winning the betfair this is their last chance with Kauto Star to win the Million Pound bonus for the 3 races!
However, saying that Mr Nicholls/Smith will not run the horse unless he is good to go!
Cannot see past Long Run personally but Kauto will make him go!
My hope is for Long Run to take a further hike in the KG betting, given Kauto’s resurgent Star appeal.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I’m at my wits end where Master Minded is concerned. tbh my mouse was hovering over him yesterday thinking will I won’t I and ended up saying to myself don’t be stupid and backed Medermit
Hurdy,you obviously wasn’t playing in running then,
Master Minded
touched 24’s at one point incredibly! In what always appeared to the eye a 2 horse race in running when
Somersby
went 8/11, The Master was still 8’s to a plenty.What is very apparent in hindsight is that Somersby needs to chase a horse,he positively stopped when he took it up.
I think considering he jumped poorly up the back straight and the fact here clearly wasn’t ‘race fit’ Long Run ran pretty well in only being 8l behind a peak condition Kauto.
He’ll come on a bundle for that and will be the one they all have to beat at Kempton.
I’m at my wits end where Master Minded is concerned. tbh my mouse was hovering over him yesterday thinking will I won’t I and ended up saying to myself don’t be stupid and backed Medermit
Hurdy,you obviously wasn’t playing in running then,
Master Minded
touched 24’s at one point incredibly! In what always appeared to the eye a 2 horse race in running when
Somersby
went 8/11, The Master was still 8’s to a plenty.What is very apparent in hindsight is that Somersby needs to chase a horse,he positively stopped when he took it up.
Hi Gordon untill now had no idea it was you how you been this year.You been missed here.And how you do on the flat as well.
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