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A horse is in his competitive prime from age 8 to 12. It’s Kauto Star’s fitness that makes the difference, not his age. A horse’s jumping ability doesn’t decline over time like speed does. He just outclasses Long Run, and of course he has the jockey advantage. Bet against him at your own peril.
Hi Gordon untill now had no idea it was you how you been this year.You been missed here.And how you do on the flat as well.
Hello again Darren, another brilliant Cheltenham and Royal Ascot,so much so i bought a brand new Black Merc! Its up for sale now though!
Regal Parade
and
Seville
,not to mention bloody
Memory
cost me dear! Never surrender though eh!
I’ll take a punt on Somersby each way @ 16s.
He’s never yet run over 3 miles, and I reckon that he’ll improve for it (unless he really is not top class at any trip, but at the prices its a small risk). I’ll be hoping that he’ll be played late though, as mentioned above he did seem to stop a little at the weekend.
Master Minded was all out on Saturday, and I can’t see him getting 3 miles – even at Kempton. I know he’s already proved himself over 2m4ish, but that extra half a mile at high speed when the chips are down could find him out. That long, sweeping run before the Kempton straight could cause a problem or two.
Hopefully PN will give Kauto a break – he was fantastic on Saturday and he may need more time to get over his exertions. If he does turn up, he’ll make them all go – he certainly is the benchmark in the race.
As for Long Run? I can’t weigh him up. Hammers Kauto in this race last year, but the champ was found to have bled. Then beats Kauto and Denman in the Gold Cup on faster ground than they would have liked. Maybe I’m just looking for something to beat him or just avoiding the obvious I don’t know.
Captain Chris is the dark horse. Staying on well behind Medermit the only time he ran over a distance greater than 2miles. Could improve for the step up – but the price is a little shorter than I would have liked.
Somersby e/w @ 16s for me. Good luck all.
JJM – Nicky Henderson said that Riverside Theatre had a setback and isn’t expected to be ready in time for the King George. If he makes it though I agree he’s definitely worth an e/w punt given his course form.
I can’t help but think that Long Run wasn’t probably wound up for Haydock, and although he seemed totally outclassed on Saturday, my first thought would be that come Boxing Day he’ll be a totally different proposition, especially on a course he loves.
Although the temptation to run Kauto after his fantastic showing in the Betfair is clear, Nicholls’s original plan was to run he and Denman just twice this year. In my humble opinion he should be kept fresh and wrapped in cotton wool until Cheltenham.
I can’t look past Long Run here, he’s bound to be back to his best for this one and whether or not Kauto does run(which it looks likely he will), he’s the obvious pick. The King George and Gold Cup were always going to be the races that Long Run were being fully aimed at this season, and with that in mind, his jumping should be a lot more tuned by then. I’m just waiting for a decent price though, as if and when Kauto’s confirmed as a definite, he’s bound to get smashed in.
As Nicky Henderson said before the Betfair Chase only a madman would write Kauto Star off "ever".
Nicky also said Long Run was a as fit as he could possibly get him without actually running him and Robert Walley Cohen was sure Long Run would beat the ageing Kauto Star.
Paul Nichols on the other hand said this was Kauto’s Gold Cup and he was as fit as he could get him….Without actually having a run ????
The fact is Kauto Star turned the Gold Cup and King George form on it’s head. He took a deficit of 11 lengths and 19 lengths and turned it into again of 8 lengths.
It’s not like there were only 2 horses ran at Haydock. Diamond Harry the Hennessy winner, Time for Rupert and Weird Al two young high class animals who had left the classy Nacarat for dead a couple of weeks ago and they had race fitness on their side.
You could cite the fact Long Run only fished 2 lengths ahead of Wierd Al but he look to be improving big time and he did beat Time For Rupert 10 lengths further than he did at Wetherby.
Long Run has now got to improve at least 10lbs to beat Kauto at Kempton or Kauto has to run another poor race.
I expect Long Run to improve a bit, everyone does but what’s to say Kauto won’t come on for the race as well.
While Kauto was very good at Haydock it was still short of his best ever performance. That came at Kempton and all being well he may just improve a little bit, back at his happy hunting ground, and Long Run may well be facing an impossible task.
The only possible outsider that I can see is Captain Chris, although his jumping concerns me. The SO. follows the Habb’s horses so I’ll probably get him an ante post bet on CC as a Christmas present [he can take me out for a meal if it wins!]. Is he still a likely runner?
Despite his advancing years the all-time great Kauto Star can’t be written off as he recently proved with his fantastic victory in the BF chase. However, Long Run will be fitter and his jumping should be better on boxing day so he is the obvious one to beat. Master Minded is an interesting runner as he is immensely talented but I just couldn’t have him at this trip against the likes of LR and Kauto.
I’d love to see Kauto win a 5th KG but it has to be Long Run for me.
I find it difficult to bet with any confidence, mainly because of the question marks over the key horses:
Will Long Run jump well enough?
Will KS be full recovered from the Betfair?I wouldn’t bet on either of those and have been looking for some value but it is a poor looking KG in my opinion.
I know McCain has said Weird Al won’t be seen till the spring – I hope he changes his mind as he’d have a very good chance here based on his fine jumping, ability to travel and gutsy attitude.
If WA doesn’t run, I might bet the unknown – Kauto Stone.
Long Run was very impressive when winning this race last year and, despite his defeat last weekend, is still the one to beat.
Since Kauto Star won his first KG in 2006 (has it been five years already?) it has been something of an annual tradition for him to be far from impressive prior to Kempton before cantering to another success…and another…and another.
In 2007 he was beaten in the Old Roan (albeit trying to give Monet’s Garden 14lb), and then a mere 1/2 length seperated him and Exotic Dancer in the Betfair Chase.
In 2008 he was struggling to get the better of Snoopy Loopy before unshipping that seasons crash test dummy, Sam Thomas, at Haydock.
In 2009 he defeated Imperial Commander by the smallest of margins before his most impressive ever performance at Kempton.
We could all be forgiven for experiencing a case of deja vu this season regarding Long Run, with (deja vu deja vu) his jumping coming under close scrutiny.
He is not the natural Kauto is over fences, with the Paul Nicholls-trained superstar experiencing some of the most pathetic criticism I have ever encountered regarding his jumping – remember when the Racing Post covered their front page on the day of his first Gold Cup success with ‘The White Knuckle Ride’?
The difference is that Long Run has yet to totally convince in the jumping department and that will be tested once again if Ruby sends Kauto on like he did at Haydock. There’s little doubt that Paul Nicholls will want to try and exploit that particular weakness again.
It’s hard to ignore the chances of Kauto, who won pulling away at Haydock, breaking his own track record in the process. That suggests in itself that a fully fit Long Run would have been hard pressed to come out on top that day. If Ruby adopts those tactics around Kempton and gets Kauto into a rhythm, then it will be very interesting to see how his rivals react. Even at his age, Kauto can still travel at the kind of pace that can put his younger rivals under pressure.
The one horse who didn’t blink when challenging Kauto that day was Diamond Harry, who jumped equally as well and didn’t wave the white flag until fitness, or lack of, became a factor.
I have little doubt that, unlike recent years, Diamond Harry was not fully tuned up for his seasonal return, particularly when you consider the recent setback that prevented him from competing in the Charlie Hall. After the disappointment of last season, connections can be forgiven for not wrapping such a talented animal up in cotton wool. Yes, we all know how fragile he is, but I get the feeling that connections will take it day by day with him this season and not train him specifically for longterm targets.
His high cruising speed and quick fencing will be an asset around Kempton.
The potential superstar in the race could be Captain Chris. I suggested him an ideal type for this contest prior to Cheltenham last season and both his breeding and racecourse evidence suggest that three miles will be well within his reach. He was far from convincing with his jumping early last season before improving in that department with every run and there was a lot to like about his seasonal bow at Exeter.
Looking in need of the run prior to the contest, he never travelled or jumped with any fluency yet still looked the most likely winner before exiting at the last. He was conceding 6lb to Medermit that day and that horse was far from disgraced against Master Minded and Somersby at Ascot last weekend.
I’m not convinced Master Minded will stay the trip, but everything we have seen over the years suggest that a combination of his attributes and the track should make him a major player if he does have the necessary stamina.
He’s not a betting proposition at the moment, but I would be very interested in Diamond Harry. Will wait until the vibes from Devon are positive until I back him, but a horse such as this, who the racing public love to knock (a la Dunguib, Cue Card etc etc), will always be available at an attractive price.
Well, it’s all to play for on Boxing day. Kauto Star won his first King George at six, as did Long Run. Kauto Star’s only defeat at Kempton was in last year’s King George, where Long Run proved too strong.
Long Run has won twice on his two Kempton outings. Both wins over 3 miles ( Feltham & King George ) were on good to soft ground.
Kauto Star will become only the third eleven year old to win the race should he succeed where he failed a year ago.
Will the old boy re-gain his title or will the young whipper snapper do him again ?
Don’t know about you but my money is with the younger fella… again !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Well Pricewise has gone for Kauto Star at a general 9/2 which is pretty low price for him for an ante post wager! Can fully understand his reasoning but not at that price!
Could possibly be the value bet to lay for the Gold Cup though as if he wins or even runs well his price will tumble straight away!
McCain quoted today saying Weird Al won’t run in KG and will be kept for the spring.
I would love to see KStar go out and prove the doubters wrong. Absolutely fantastic horse, masterful over 2 and 3 miles.
However I can’t resist a punt on Master Minded, inconsistent as he may well be I just think that he’s due a good run…so I’m basing it on solid facts…
SOMERSBY at 16/1 my tip if the Captain does not turn up. and it would not shock me if AP will be on Somersby as well.
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